Showing papers in "Population and Environment in 2010"
TL;DR: The authors found that women express slightly greater concern about climate change than do men, and this gender divide is not accounted for by differences in key values and beliefs or in the social roles that men and women differentially perform in society.
Abstract: This study tests theoretical arguments about gender differences in scientific knowledge and environmental concern using 8 years of Gallup data on climate change knowledge and concern in the US general public. Contrary to expectations from scientific literacy research, women convey greater assessed scientific knowledge of climate change than do men. Consistent with much existing sociology of science research, women underestimate their climate change knowledge more than do men. Also, women express slightly greater concern about climate change than do men, and this gender divide is not accounted for by differences in key values and beliefs or in the social roles that men and women differentially perform in society. Modest yet enduring gender differences on climate change knowledge and concern within the US general public suggest several avenues for future research, which are explored in the conclusion.
639 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on three environmental impacts particularly influenced by population age-structure: carbon emissions from transport and residential energy and electricity consumption, as well as aggregate carbon emissions for a panel of developed countries, and take as their starting point the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework.
Abstract: We focus on three environmental impacts particularly influenced by population age-structure—carbon emissions from transport and residential energy and electricity consumption—as well as aggregate carbon emissions for a panel of developed countries, and take as our starting point the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Among our contributions is to further disaggregate population into three particularly key age groups: 20–34, 35–49, and 50–64, and by doing so demonstrate that population’s environmental impact differs considerably across age groups, with the older age groups (ones typically associated with larger households) actually exerting a negative influence. Furthermore, those age-specific population influences are different (in absolute and relative terms) for the different environmental impacts we analyze. Also, we find that urbanization, in developed countries, best measures access to a country’s power grid, and thus, is positively associated with energy consumption in the residential sector. Finally, we suggest some modeling and methodological improvements to the STIRPAT framework.
398 citations
TL;DR: It is found that local moves are predicted by perceived declines in productivity, declining land cover, and increasing time required to gather firewood, and high-caste Hindus generally being less affect than others by environmental change.
Abstract: Scholars and activists have hypothesized a connection between environmental change and out-migration. In this paper, we test this hypothesis using data from Nepal. We operationalize environmental change in terms of declining land cover, rising times required to gather organic inputs, increasing population density, and perceived declines in agricultural productivity. In general, environmental change is more strongly related to short- than long-distance moves. Holding constant the effects of other social and economic variables, we find that local moves are predicted by perceived declines in productivity, declining land cover, and increasing time required to gather firewood. Long-distance moves are predicted by perceived declines in productivity, but the effect is weaker than in the model of short-distance mobility. We also show that effects of environmental change vary by gender and ethnicity, with women being more affected by changes in the time required to gather fodder and men by changes in the time to gather firewood, and high-caste Hindus generally being less affect than others by environmental change.
342 citations
TL;DR: This article examined how the pre-existing social vulnerabilities within New Orleans interacted with the level of flood exposure to produce inequities in the socio-spatial patterns of recovery and found a distinct geographic pattern to the recovery suggesting that the social burdens and impacts from Hurricane Katrina are uneven.
Abstract: The historical disparities in the socio-demographic structure of New Orleans shaped the social vulnerability of local residents and their responses to Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath. These disparities, derived from race, class, gender, and age differences, have resulted in the uneven impact of the catastrophe on various communities in New Orleans, and importantly, their ability to recover. This article examines how the pre-existing social vulnerabilities within New Orleans interacted with the level of flood exposure to produce inequities in the socio-spatial patterns of recovery. Utilizing a combination of statistical and spatial approaches, we found a distinct geographic pattern to the recovery suggesting that the social burdens and impacts from Hurricane Katrina are uneven—the less flooded and less vulnerable areas are recovering faster than tracts with more vulnerable populations and higher levels of flooding. However, there is a more nuanced story, which suggests that it is neighborhoods in the mid-range of social vulnerability where recovery is lagging. While private resources and government programs help groups in the high and low categories of social vulnerability, the middle group shows the slowest rates of recovery. Further, it appears that the congressionally funded State of Louisiana Road Home Program (designed to provide compensation to Louisiana’s homeowners who suffered impacts by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita for the damage to their home) is not having a significant effect in stimulating recovery within the city.
332 citations
TL;DR: It is concluded that blacks tended to live in areas that experienced greater flooding and hence suffered more severe housing damage which, in turn, led to their delayed return to the city.
Abstract: Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans on the 29th of August 2005 and displaced virtually the entire population of the city. Soon after, observers predicted the city would become whiter and wealthier as a result of selective return migration, although challenges related to sampling and data collection in a post-disaster environment have hampered evaluation of these hypotheses. In this article, we investigate return to the city by displaced residents over a period of approximately 14 months following the storm, describing overall return rates and examining differences in return rates by race and socioeconomic status. We use unique data from a representative sample of pre-Katrina New Orleans residents collected in the Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Survey. We find that black residents returned to the city at a much slower pace than white residents even after controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics. However, the racial disparity disappears after controlling for housing damage. We conclude that blacks tended to live in areas that experienced greater flooding and hence suffered more severe housing damage which, in turn, led to their delayed return to the city. The full-scale survey of displaced residents being fielded in 2009–2010 will show whether the repopulation of the city was selective over a longer period.
317 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in Nepal and Thailand.
Abstract: The implications of environmental change for migration are little understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are maximised.
293 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, four methods were used to produce dasymetric population density grids combining population data per commune with CORINE Land Cover, a map available for all countries of the European Union.
Abstract: This paper describes four methods used to produce dasymetric population density grids combining population data per commune with CORINE Land Cover, a map available for all countries of the European Union. An accuracy assessment has been carried out for five countries for which a very reliable 1-km population density grid exists; the improvement, compared with the choropleth map per commune, ranges between 20% for the weakest result in Finland and 62% for the best result in the Netherlands. The best results are obtained with a method using logit regression to integrate information from the point survey LUCAS (Land Use/Cover Area frame Survey); however, performance differences between methods are moderate. The dasymetric grid is distributed free of charge by the European Environment Agency, for non-commercial use.
215 citations
TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors identified a pattern of gender differences similar to common findings in the West: women demonstrated greater participation in environmental behaviors inside of the home (e.g., recycling), while outside of the homes no gendered patterns were exhibited.
Abstract: China represents the third largest economy and the highest level of national carbon dioxide emissions when compared to other nations across the globe. Yet, little social science research has focused on the environmentally oriented behaviors of Chinese nationals, key to understanding levels of environmental impact. This study examines, in China, gender differences in environmentally oriented behaviors, environmental knowledge, and general environmental concern. Making use of path analyses, we identify a pattern of gender differences similar to common findings in the West: women demonstrated greater participation in environmental behaviors inside of the home (e.g., recycling), while outside of the home (e.g., environmental organization donations) no gendered patterns were exhibited. However, Chinese women expressed lower levels of concern than men—a finding opposite of most Western studies. Also distinct from other settings, in China, higher levels of knowledge regarding environmental issues did, indeed, translate into pro-environmental behaviors—thereby not exhibiting the knowledge-behavior gap demonstrated elsewhere.
177 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors model the long-term relationship between demographic dynamics and migration driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate change in the Northeast region of Brazil and show that these changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country.
Abstract: This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning.
137 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the temporal stability of the population/environment relationship and found that population size has a large and stable positive association with anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in both developed and less-developed countries.
Abstract: This study examines the temporal stability of the population/environment relationship. We analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 to determine whether the national-level association between population and carbon dioxide emissions has remained stable, declined, or intensified in recent decades. Results indicate that population size has a large and stable positive association with anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The findings of temporal stability generally hold for both developed countries and less-developed countries. The authors conclude that population, in tandem with other social drivers, remains an important consideration for research that addresses the human dimensions of global environmental change.
131 citations
TL;DR: This study showed that policy-institutional factors next to population growth have driven land use changes in the Teso systems in eastern Uganda from 1960 to 2001, and that nutrient balances of farm households are useful indicators to identify their sustainability.
Abstract: Smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa have undergone changes in land use, productivity and sustainability. Understanding of the drivers that have led to changes in land use in these systems and factors that influence the systems’ sustainability is useful to guide appropriate targeting of intervention strategies for improvement. We studied low input Teso farming systems in eastern Uganda from 1960 to 2001 in a place-based analysis combined with a comparative analysis of similar low input systems in southern Mali. This study showed that policy-institutional factors next to population growth have driven land use changes in the Teso systems, and that nutrient balances of farm households are useful indicators to identify their sustainability. During the period of analysis, the fraction of land under cultivation increased from 46 to 78%, and communal grazing lands nearly completely disappeared. Cropping diversified over time; cassava overtook cotton and millet in importance, and rice emerged as an alternative cash crop. Impacts of political instability, such as the collapse of cotton marketing and land management institutions, of communal labour arrangements and aggravation of cattle rustling were linked to the changes. Crop productivity in the farming systems is poor and nutrient balances differed between farm types. Balances of N, P and K were all positive for larger farms (LF) that had more cattle and derived a larger proportion of their income from off-farm activities, whereas on the medium farms (MF), small farms with cattle (SF1) and without cattle (SF2) balances were mostly negative. Sustainability of the farming system is driven by livestock, crop production, labour and access to off-farm income. Building private public partnerships around market-oriented crops can be an entry point for encouraging investment in use of external nutrient inputs to boost productivity in such African farming systems. However, intervention strategies should recognise the diversity and heterogeneity between farms to ensure efficient use of these external inputs.
TL;DR: It is demonstrated for the first time that time preferences can considerably influence survey-based WTP for environmental goods; since investments in the environment typically pay off in the distant future, persons with a high subjective discount rate are less likely to commit.
Abstract: A large number of ‘environmental justice’ studies show that wealthier people are less affected by environmental burdens and also consume more resources than poorer people. Given this double inequity, we ask, to what extent are affluent people prepared to pay to protect the environment? The analyses are couched within the compensation/affluence hypothesis, which states that wealthier persons are able to spend more for environmental protection than their poorer counterparts. Further, we take into account various competing economic, psychological and sociological determinants of individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) for both public environmental goods (e.g., general environmental protection) and quasi-private environmental goods (e.g., CO2-neutral cars). Such a comprehensive approach contrasts with most other studies in this field that focus on a limited number of determinants and goods. Multivariate analyses are based on a general population survey in Switzerland (N = 3,369). Although income has a positive and significant effect on WTP supporting the compensation hypothesis, determinants such as generalized interpersonal trust that is assumed to be positively associated with civic engagement and environmental concern prove to be equally important. Moreover, we demonstrate for the first time that time preferences can considerably influence survey-based WTP for environmental goods; since investments in the environment typically pay off in the distant future, persons with a high subjective discount rate are less likely to commit.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the relative importance of public service provision and natural resources in determining settlement patterns along, and rural-urban migration from, eight rivers in road-less regions of the Brazilian Amazon.
Abstract: Rural–urban migration can have both positive and negative environmental consequences for tropical forests. Rural residents exert pressure on the environment through farming, fishing, and forest extraction, yet conversely, protecting rural livelihoods is often the motivation for conserving large areas of threatened forest. This research examines rural settlement within the Brazilian Amazon to shed light on the drivers of on-going rural exodus and its environmental implications. Specifically, we examine the relative importance of public service provision and natural resources in determining settlement patterns along, and rural–urban migration from, eight rivers in road-less regions of the Brazilian Amazon. Data include biophysical, social, and economic variables that were assessed in 184 riverine settlements along rural–urban gradients up to 740 km from the nearest urban center. Settlements were smaller upstream, and lacked key services such as schools and healthcare. We found that clustering of rural populations close to urban centers reflects the high costs of living in remote areas, despite abundant natural resources which previously justified migration to headwaters. Impeded dry-season navigability and transport costs restricted the flow of goods and services to and from remote areas, and transaction costs of trade exchange were higher upstream. A lack of school access was the main motivation for rural–urban migration and the abandonment of remote riverine settlements. A key policy implication is that while education services could provide a powerful tool to stabilize and support rural populations, delivery is challenging in remote areas and may also encourage further rural–urban migration in the longer term. Furthermore, river-dwellers in remote areas rarely visited remote urban centers, presumably because these journeys are too costly. We examine the implications of our findings for anti-poverty subsidies and payment for ecosystem services and conclude that transport costs required to receive payment could encourage further depopulation of remote areas.
TL;DR: In this paper, the impacts of population and demographic change on the vulnerability of communities to climate change and variability are discussed. But the authors focus on the adaptation of small communities in eastern Ontario, Canada, which are currently experiencing a combination of changes in local climatic conditions and rapid demographic change caused by in-migration of urban retirees and out-emigration of young, educated people.
Abstract: This article describes and analyzes the impacts of population and demographic change on the vulnerability of communities to climate change and variability. It begins with a review of existing literature on the effects of population change on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the exposure of settlements to climate risks, and on the capacity to adapt to climate change. The article explores the relationship between population change and adaptive capacity through detailed examination of empirical findings from a study of small communities in eastern Ontario, Canada currently experiencing a combination of changes in local climatic conditions and rapid demographic change caused by in-migration of urban retirees and out-migration of young, educated people. The combination of changing demographic and climatic patterns has placed increased stress on local social networks that have long been critical to climate adaptation in that region. The case study and literature review are used to create a general typology of the relationship between population change and vulnerability that may be used as a framework for future research in this field.
TL;DR: This article places Katrina into a much less exciting context, demonstrating that the kinds of environmental factors exemplified by Katrina and the Dust Bowl are dwarfed in importance and frequency by the other ways that environment has both impeded and assisted the forces of migration.
Abstract: The massive publicity surrounding the exodus of residents from New Orleans spurred by Hurricane Katrina has encouraged interest in the ways that past migration in the U.S. has been shaped by environmental factors. So has Timothy Egan’s exciting book, The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of those who survived the Great American Dust Bowl. This article places those dramatic stories into a much less exciting context, demonstrating that the kinds of environmental factors exemplified by Katrina and the Dust Bowl are dwarfed in importance and frequency by the other ways that environment has both impeded and assisted the forces of migration. We accomplish this goal by enumerating four types of environmental influence on migration in the U.S.: (1) environmental calamities, including floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes, (2) environmental hardships and their obverse, short-term environmental benefits, including both drought and short periods of favorable weather, (3) environmental amenities, including warmth, sun, and proximity to water or mountains, and (4) environmental barriers and their management, including heat, air conditioning, flood control, drainage, and irrigation. In U.S. history, all four of these have driven migration flows in one direction or another. Placing Katrina into this historical context is an important task, both because the environmental calamities of which Katrina is an example are relatively rare and have not had a wide impact, and because focusing on them defers interest from the other kinds of environmental impacts, whose effect on migration may have been stronger and more persistent, though less dramatic.
TL;DR: It is argued that the near-term rise in consumption due to remittances is not counterbalanced by rapid decline in migrant household fertility, however, over time, the environmental cost of consumption may be mitigated at the community level through diffusion of contraception and family planning norms yielding lower family size.
Abstract: International migration impacts origin regions in many ways. As examples, remittances from distant migrants may alter consumption patterns within sending communities, while exposure to different cultural norms may alter other behaviors. This paper combines these insights to offer a unique lens on migration’s environmental impact. From an environmental perspective, we ask the following question: is the likely rise in consumption brought about by remittances counterbalanced by a reduction in fertility in migrant households following exposure to lower fertility cultures? Based on ethnographic case studies in two western highland Guatemalan communities, we argue that the near-term rise in consumption due to remittances is not counterbalanced by rapid decline in migrant household fertility. However, over time, the environmental cost of consumption may be mitigated at the community level through diffusion of contraception and family planning norms yielding lower family size.
TL;DR: The authors examined how displacement affected housing, economic, and health outcomes for individuals and families in 18 Louisiana parishes approximately 1 year after hurricanes Katrina and Rita and found that the displaced had lower odds of owning their homes, living in detached housing, and retaining access to primary health care facilities.
Abstract: Hundreds of thousands of Louisiana citizens were displaced from their homes as a result of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Of those displaced within Louisiana some relocated to other parishes, some to other residences within the same parish, and others were able to return to their pre-storm residence. This article draws upon data gathered by the 2006 Louisiana Health and Population Survey to examine the social costs of displacement across 18 Louisiana parishes approximately 1 year after the hurricanes. Specifically, we examine how displacement affected housing, economic, and health outcomes for individuals and families. Further, we compare the implications of two types of displacement (1) internal displacement—within-parish relocation versus (2) external displacement—relocation across parish lines. We found that the displaced had lower odds of owning their homes, living in detached housing, and retaining access to primary health care facilities. The displaced were also more likely to be unemployed and exhibit symptoms consistent with severe mental illness. The externally displaced suffered income declines. These trends are critically important for understanding both the short- and long-term ramifications of displacement after disaster. Our findings have implications for theories, policy makers, and planners considering the larger social costs of disaster and large-scale displacement.
TL;DR: The authors examined the relationship between international migration, natural resources, and the environment in Guatemala and found that migrants and their earnings, as well as their ideas, behavior and attitudes, affect land use, land cover, and firewood use.
Abstract: This article examines the relationships between international migration, natural resources, and the environment. Rather than looking at environmental change as a cause of population movements, the article reveals how migration affects the environment in sending countries. Empirically, we rely on a case study in Guatemala. Although migrants and cash remittances make significant contributions to Guatemala’s changing economy, little is known about the relationships between migration and the environment in this Central American country—a country, which continues to have a large rural population and that relies heavily on its natural resources. Drawing on ethnographic research and household surveys in a Maya community, we reveal how migrants and their earnings, as well as their ideas, behavior and attitudes, affect land use, land cover, and firewood use. We reveal, for example, how in addition to investments in land for home building and pick-up trucks to help improve agricultural production, some migrant households purchase more land and often dedicate it to the cultivation of vegetable crops for local and foreign markets. Cultural practices and beliefs directly linked to land and the environment, particularly maize cultivation, also alter due to migration processes. And, despite the ability of migrant households to transition to more efficient fuels like liquid propane gas (LPG), we show how they continue to use firewood. In all, the study contributes important insights into the environmental implications of migration.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined coastal communities' perceptions of environmental change in northeast Zanzibar, Tanzania and their preferences for adaptive strategies, while simultaneously examining physical change processes through change analysis.
Abstract: Many developing countries are already affected by multiple stressors, which have increased their vulnerability to accelerated negative environmental change. Coastal erosion, deforestation and habitat fragmentation become even more serious problems in coastal locations when coupled with the projected impacts of climate change. However, anticipatory adaptation to such changes as increased coastal erosion and extreme events does not need to wait for specific climate scenarios, but is more reliant on the examination of current vulnerabilities and the range of possible no-regret strategies. These need to, however, accommodate multiple stakeholder preferences. This study therefore examines coastal communities’ perceptions of environmental change in northeast Zanzibar, Tanzania and their preferences for adaptive strategies, while simultaneously examining physical change processes through change analysis. The study suggests coastal forest buffer zones as an anticipatory adaptation measure, which is based on soft measures such as vegetation planting, awareness raising and stakeholder cooperation.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report findings from an empirical study of the impacts of drought on rural households in southeastern Alberta, Canada during the 1930s and identify how economic, human, and social capital influenced the adaptive capacity, adaptation decisions, and migration behavior of rural households and describes how institutional responses affected household adaptation.
Abstract: This article reports findings from an empirical study of the impacts of drought on rural households in southeastern Alberta, Canada during the 1930s. In that decade, extreme summer heat conditions and low precipitation levels led to repeated crop failures. These extreme climatic conditions coincided with economic recession, falling commodity prices, and rising unemployment to create widespread hardship and suffering across the rural population. Thousands of households adapted by leaving the drought-stricken region and migrating to more northerly regions unaffected by drought, often suffering still further hardship as they reestablished themselves in a new environment. Through secondary research of historical documents and interviews with surviving migrants and non-migrants, this study identifies how economic, human, and social capital influenced the adaptive capacity, adaptation decisions, and migration behavior of rural households and describes how institutional responses affected household adaptation. Differential access to capital in its various forms was a key factor that distinguished households that adapted via migration from those that did not. The findings from this study of historical environment-related population change provide insights that enhance our broader understanding of potential future migration responses to the impacts of anthropogenic climate change and important considerations for policy-makers and planners seeking to build adaptive capacity in rural populations.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare a labor migrant-sending location of Mexico's southern Yucatan with those for a labor migrants-receiving location in Vermont (USA) using quantitative and qualitative data.
Abstract: Gender shapes the migration–environment association in both origin and destination communities. Using quantitative and qualitative data, we juxtapose these gender dimensions for a labor migrant-sending location of Mexico’s southern Yucatan with those for a labor migrant-receiving location in Vermont (USA). We illustrate how in the southern Yucatan, circular transnational migration alters pasture, maize and chili production in a peasant field–forest system. Gender norms condition the land-use decisions of migratory households to keep women out of agricultural fields, but in turn may be modified in unexpected ways. With men’s migration, more women assume aspects of land management, including in decision-making and supervision of hired farm labor. In comparison, in Vermont a largely male migrant labor force helps maintain an idealized, pastoral landscape with gender deeply embedded in how that labor is constructed and managed.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the susceptibility and response of resource regimes to rural out-migration in two distinct cultural and environmental contexts (Mexico and India) and showed that critical yet poorly recognized shifts in migration dynamics can increase the pressures felt locally and serve to reduce the effectiveness of institutional adaptations at the community level.
Abstract: Resource regimes are complex social–ecological systems that operate at multiple levels. Using data from two distinct cultural and environmental contexts (Mexico and India), this paper looks at the susceptibility and response of such regimes to rural out-migration. As a driver of demographic and cultural change, out-migration impacts both the practices and institutional arrangements that define territorial resource use and management. The research shows that critical yet poorly recognised shifts in migration dynamics can increase the pressures felt locally and serve to reduce the effectiveness of institutional adaptations at the community level. From an environmental perspective, the research adds to the body of work examining the impacts of rural depopulation on land and seascapes and associated biological diversity. We question the assumption that rural–urban migration necessarily simulates ecosystem recovery and aids conservation. This finding is timely as funding agencies and government programs show belated interest in the consequences of out-migration for environmental management, resource use and rural livelihoods in tropical country settings.
TL;DR: This study designs a spatially explicit, stylized ABM that reflects key Land Use/Land Cover dynamics and livelihood decisions on Isabela Island in the Galápagos Archipelago of Ecuador and uses it to explore policy scenarios in a setting that is facing substantial conservation and development challenges.
Abstract: Agent-based models (ABMs) are powerful tools for population–environment research but are subject to trade-offs between model complexity and abstraction. This study strikes a compromise between abstract and highly specified ABMs by designing a spatially explicit, stylized ABM and using it to explore policy scenarios in a setting that is facing substantial conservation and development challenges. Specifically, we present an ABM that reflects key Land Use/Land Cover dynamics and livelihood decisions on Isabela Island in the Galapagos Archipelago of Ecuador. We implement the model using the NetLogo software platform, a free program that requires relatively little programming experience. The landscape is composed of a satellite-derived distribution of a problematic invasive species (common guava) and a stylized representation of the Galapagos National Park, the community of Puerto Villamil, the agricultural zone, and the marine area. The agent module is based on publicly available data and household interviews and represents the primary livelihoods of the population in the Galapagos Islands—tourism, fisheries, and agriculture. We use the model to enact hypothetical agricultural subsidy scenarios aimed at controlling invasive guava and assess the resulting population and land cover dynamics. Findings suggest that spatially explicit, stylized ABMs have considerable utility, particularly during preliminary stages of research, as platforms for (1) sharpening conceptualizations of population–environment systems, (2) testing alternative scenarios, and (3) uncovering critical data gaps.
TL;DR: This paper reviews literature from the fields of demography and other disciplines to identify available administrative data sets that can form the basis of sound, relevant, and timely county-level population estimates following a catastrophic U.S. event.
Abstract: After a large scale evacuation, authorities need to know the new and frequently changing population distributions in order to meet needs for housing, schools, health care, and other services. This paper reviews literature from the fields of demography and other disciplines to identify available administrative data sets that can form the basis of sound, relevant, and timely county-level population estimates following a catastrophic U.S. event. The most appropriate data to estimate population in damaged counties will be disaster-specific data such as housing damage estimates and FEMA applicant counts initially, and later electric accounts and USPS active residences. In heavily damaged counties, data on electric accounts and USPS active residences may not be consistently collected for many months, during which time sample surveys may be needed. For counties that receive an influx of population, school enrollment data provide the most appropriate basis for population estimates. Population estimates for large, heavily damaged counties are highly uncertain. Sensitivity analysis when using estimates for planning in these areas is recommended. The Census Bureau can build on this research by codifying recommendations to local authorities for developing frequent post-disaster population estimates.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors employ a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate how family planning and other fertilityrelated decisions may affect human population, household number, and panda habitat over time.
Abstract: The practice of family planning has a long history, but its environmental implications have not often been considered. Using data from Wolong Nature Reserve for the conservation of the world-famous giant pandas in China, we employ a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate how family-planning and other fertility-related decisions may affect human population, household number, and panda habitat over time. Simulation results indicate that (1) population size has the shortest time lag in response to changes in family-planning decisions, and panda habitat has the longest time lag; (2) the amount of panda habitat is more sensitive to factors affecting number of households than those affecting population size; (3) although not large in quantity nor changing landscape fragmentation substantially, the associated changes in habitat are in good areas for the panda. This study offers a novel approach to studying long-term demographic and environmental effects of family-planning and fertility-related decisions across space.
TL;DR: This paper used a series of logistic regressions upon Current Population Survey data to lend inferential insight into how population groups prone to social and environmental vulnerability have been differentially enabled to return or not-return to their pre-disaster residence.
Abstract: As a natural and social disaster, Hurricane Katrina has changed how we view disaster experiences from a social, environmental, and demographic perspective. While much literature has concentrated upon descriptive population changes in the wake of the disaster, less attention has been directed toward how certain population characteristics have affected some Katrina evacuee’s ability to recover in the post-disaster period. This study utilizes a series of logistic regressions upon Current Population Survey data to lend inferential insight into how population groups prone to social and environmental vulnerability have been differentially enabled to return or not-return to their pre-disaster residence. The results validate descriptive findings that Black/African American and impoverished populations have less probability for return, though this relationship may not be as simple as initially supposed. Further, the results suggest that the increase in Hispanic populations in the area may in fact be a non-native one, and some popular conceptions of vulnerability may not seem to be applicable to the unique circumstances surrounding migration from the Gulf Coast. These findings suggest complexity in population relationships in the Gulf Coast not immediately apparent from descriptive level analysis and challenges for ongoing evaluation of the recovery and measurement of Hurricane Katrina-affected areas.
TL;DR: The results show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone, and suggests that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations.
Abstract: This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965) The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined land use change in Israel and found a positive correlation between population growth and land development rates at the national scale, and while remaining positive, the strength of the relationship varies greatly at regional and local scales.
Abstract: This research examines land use change in Israel––an intriguing but understudied setting with regard to population–environment dynamics. While Israel is fairly unique with regard to its combined high levels of economic prosperity and high population growth, this case study has relevance for developed countries and regions (like the south and southwest regions of the USA) which must balance population growth and urban development with open space conservation for ecosystem services and biological diversity. The population–land development relationship is investigated during the period from 1961 to 1995 at three spatial scales: national, regional (six districts), and local (40 localities). There is a positive correlation between population growth and land development rates at the national scale, and while remaining positive, the strength of the relationship varies greatly at regional and local scales. The variation in population–land use dynamics across scales is used to garner insight as to the importance of geography, policy and historical settlement patterns.
TL;DR: In this article, the relationship between air pollution and health outcomes was examined for the entire land area of Mexico, for most of which no ground measures of pollution concentrations exist, and the results suggest that changes in AOD have a significant impact on infant mortality due to respiratory diseases in municipalities in the three highest AOD quartiles in the country, providing evidence that air pollution adverse effects, although nonlinear, are not only present in large cities, but also in lower pollution settings which lack ground measures.
Abstract: This research uses a unique dataset that provides relatively inexpensive measures of air quality at detailed geography. The analytical focus is the relationship, in Mexico, between Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD, a measure of air quality obtained from satellite imagery) and infant mortality due to respiratory diseases from January, 2001 through December, 2006. The results contribute to existing literature on the relationship between air pollution and health outcomes by examining, for the first time, the relationship between these variables for the entire land area of Mexico, for most of which no ground measures of pollution concentrations exist. Substantive results suggest that changes in AOD have a significant impact on infant mortality due to respiratory diseases in municipalities in the three highest AOD quartiles in the country, providing evidence that air pollution’s adverse effects, although nonlinear, are not only present in large cities, but also in lower pollution settings which lack ground measures of pollution. Methodologically, it is argued that satellite-based imagery can be a valuable source of information for both researchers and policy makers when examining the consequences of pollution and/or the effectiveness of pollution-control mechanisms.