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Anti-Müllerian hormone-based prediction model for a live birth in assisted reproduction

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TLDR
The success of IVF was found to mainly depend on maternal age and serum AMH concentrations, one of the most relevant and valuable markers of ovarian reserve.
Abstract
Prediction of assisted reproduction treatment outcome has been the focus of clinical research for many years, with a variety of prognostic models describing the probability of an ongoing pregnancy or a live birth. This study assessed whether serum anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) concentrations may be incorporated into a model to enhance the prediction of a live birth in women undergoing their first IVF cycle, by analysing a database containing clinical and laboratory information on IVF cycles carried out between 2005 and 2008 at the Mother-Infant Department of University Hospital, Modena. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of live birth with baseline patient characteristics. Only AMH and age were demonstrated in regression analysis to predict live birth, so a model solely based on these two criteria was generated. The model permitted the identification of live birth with a sensitivity of 79.2% and a specificity of only 44.2%. In the prediction of a live birth following IVF, a distinction, however moderate, can be made between couples with a good and a poor prognosis. The success of IVF was found to mainly depend on maternal age and serum AMH concentrations, one of the most relevant and valuable markers of ovarian reserve.

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Journal ArticleDOI

Anti-Müllerian hormone: ovarian reserve testing and its potential clinical implications.

TL;DR: AMH is the best current available measure of ovarian reserve for different clinical conditions, and may help to individualize dosing for ovarian stimulation thereby improving the efficiency and safety of IVF and the forecasting of reproductive lifespan, ovarian dysfunction and gonadotoxic cancer treatment or ovarian surgery.
Journal ArticleDOI

Individualization of controlled ovarian stimulation in IVF using ovarian reserve markers: from theory to practice

TL;DR: Personalized IVF offers several benefits; it enables clinicians to give women more accurate information on their prognosis thus facilitating counselling especially in cases of extremes of ovarian response.
Journal ArticleDOI

The predictive accuracy of anti-Müllerian hormone for live birth after assisted conception: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature.

TL;DR: AMH, independently of age, has some association with predicting live birth after assisted conception and may be helpful when counselling couples before undergoing fertility treatment, however, its predictive accuracy is poor.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors

TL;DR: In this article, an easily interpretable index of predictive discrimination as well as methods for assessing calibration of predicted survival probabilities are discussed, which are particularly needed for binary, ordinal, and time-to-event outcomes.

Tutorial in biostatistics multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors

TL;DR: An easily interpretable index of predictive discrimination as well as methods for assessing calibration of predicted survival probabilities are discussed, which are applicable to all regression models, but are particularly needed for binary, ordinal, and time-to-event outcomes.
Journal ArticleDOI

Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis.

TL;DR: It is concluded that split-sample validation is inefficient, and bootstrapping is recommended for estimation of internal validity of a predictive logistic regression model.
Journal ArticleDOI

The variability of female reproductive ageing

TL;DR: Age at last birth in natural fertility populations, which marks the end of female fertility, shows an identically wide variation as age at menopause, but occurs on average 10 years earlier than this, given the high heritability for age atMenopause.
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