Open Access
Do Extreme Climate Events Require Extreme Forcings
Arun Kumar,Mingyue Chen,Martin P. Hoerling,Jon Eischeid +3 more
- Vol. 2013
TLDR
In this paper, a case study of severe drought during May-July (MJJ) 2012 over the Great Plains was used to assess whether extreme climate events require extreme external forcings.Abstract:
For the severe drought during May-July (MJJ) 2012 over the Great Plains as a case study, the question whether extreme climate events require extreme forcings is assessed. This drought event had a rapid onset and no indications, or early warnings for its occurrence existed. The analysis is based on a dynamical seasonal climate forecast system where close to the analysis period of MJJ 2012 different components – ocean, atmosphere, land, sea ice – were initialized and an ensemble of forecasts were made. Based on the analysis of spectrum of possible outcomes for precipitation over the Great Plains, it is concluded that extreme climate events do not necessarily require extreme external forcings, and could just be a manifestation of atmospheric noise. Implications for developing early warning system for extreme events is also discussed.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
A compound event framework for understanding extreme impacts
Michael Leonard,Seth Westra,Aloke Phatak,Martin F. Lambert,B. van den Hurk,Kathleen L. McInnes,James S. Risbey,S. Schuster,Dorte Jakob,M. Stafford-Smith +9 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed the use of influence diagrams for defining, mapping, analyzing, modeling, and communicating the risk of a compound event, which is a combination of variables or events that lead to an extreme impact.
Journal ArticleDOI
Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects
Journal ArticleDOI
Assessing the evolution of soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the 2012 United States flash drought
Jason A. Otkin,Martha C. Anderson,Christopher Hain,Mark Svoboda,David K. Johnson,Richard Mueller,Tsegaye Tadesse,Brian D. Wardlow,Jesslyn F. Brown +8 more
TL;DR: This paper examined the evolution of several model-based and satellite-derived drought metrics sensitive to soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the extreme flash drought event that impacted major agricultural areas across the central U.S. during 2012.
Journal ArticleDOI
Multimodel seasonal forecasting of global drought onset
Xing Yuan,Eric F. Wood +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the capability of seasonal forecasting of global drought onset at local scales (1°) has been investigated using multiple climate models with 110 realizations, and it was shown that the multimodel ensemble increases the drought detectability over some tropical areas where individual models have better performance, but cannot help more over most extratropical regions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Complex water management in modern agriculture: Trends in the water-energy-food nexus over the High Plains Aquifer
Samuel J. Smidt,Erin M.K. Haacker,Anthony D. Kendall,Jillian M. Deines,Lisi Pei,Kayla A. Cotterman,Haoyang Li,Xiao Liu,Bruno Basso,David W. Hyndman +9 more
TL;DR: This research sets the foundation to address water management as a function of complex decision-making trends linked to the water-energy-food nexus and recommends strategy recommendations based on the objective of balancing farmer profit and conserving water resources to ensure future agricultural production.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
Suranjana Saha,Shrinivas Moorthi,Hua-Lu Pan,Xingren Wu,Jiande Wang,Sudhir Nadiga,Patrick Tripp,Robert Kistler,John S. Woollen,David Behringer,Haixia Liu,Diane Stokes,Robert Grumbine,George Gayno,Jun Wang,Yu-Tai Hou,Hui-ya Chuang,Hann-Ming Henry Juang,Joe Sela,Mark Iredell,Russ Treadon,Daryl T. Kleist,Paul van Delst,Dennis Keyser,John Derber,Michael Ek,Jesse Meng,Helin Wei,Rongqian Yang,Stephen J. Lord,Huug van den Dool,Arun Kumar,Wanqiu Wang,Craig S. Long,Muthuvel Chelliah,Yan Xue,Boyin Huang,Jae-Kyung E. Schemm,Wesley Ebisuzaki,Roger Lin,Pingping Xie,Mingyue Chen,Shuntai Zhou,Wayne Higgins,Cheng-Zhi Zou,Quanhua Liu,Yong Chen,Yong Han,Lidia Cucurull,Richard W. Reynolds,Glenn Rutledge,Mitch Goldberg +51 more
TL;DR: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010 as mentioned in this paper, which was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period.
Journal ArticleDOI
Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature
Richard W. Reynolds,Thomas M. Smith,Chunying Liu,Dudley B. Chelton,Kenneth S. Casey,Michael G. Schlax +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, two new high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) analysis products have been developed using optimum interpolation (OI), which have a spatial grid resolution of 0.25° and a temporal resolution of 1 day.
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Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability
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Journal ArticleDOI
The NCEP Climate Forecast System
Suranjana Saha,Sudhir Nadiga,C. Thiaw,Julian X. L. Wang,Wanqiu Wang,Q. Zhang,H. M. van den Dool,Hua-Lu Pan,Shrinivas Moorthi,David Behringer,Diane Stokes,Malaquias Peña,Stephen J. Lord,Glenn H. White,Wesley Ebisuzaki,Peitao Peng,Pingping Xie +16 more
TL;DR: The Climate Forecast System (CFS) as discussed by the authors is a fully coupled ocean-land-atmosphere dynamical seasonal prediction system, which became operational at NCEP in August 2004.