Journal ArticleDOI
Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings
TLDR
In this article, a modelling study suggests that tropospheric forecast skill is enhanced when the forecast model is initialized at the onset of a stratospheric sudden warming event (SWE) event.Abstract:
Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits A modelling study suggests that tropospheric forecast skill is enhanced when the forecast model is initialized at the onset of a stratospheric sudden warming eventread more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss
Baek-Min Kim,Seok-Woo Son,Seung-Ki Min,Jee-Hoon Jeong,Seong-Joong Kim,Xiangdong Zhang,Taehyoun Shim,Jin-Ho Yoon +7 more
TL;DR: It is found that decreased sea-ice cover during early winter months (November-December), especially over the Barents-Kara seas, enhances the upward propagation of planetary-scale waves with wavenumbers of 1 and 2, subsequently weakening the stratospheric polar vortex in mid-winter (January-February).
Journal ArticleDOI
Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather
J. Kidston,Adam A. Scaife,Steven C. Hardiman,Daniel M. Mitchell,Neal Butchart,Mark P. Baldwin,Lesley J. Gray +6 more
TL;DR: A review of the influence of the atmospheric layer on storm tracks and surface weather suggests that the dynamical links between the layers hold across timescales as discussed by the authors, and that the atmospheric layers can exert a strong downward influence.
Journal ArticleDOI
Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic
James E. Overland,Klaus Dethloff,Jennifer A. Francis,Richard Hall,Edward Hanna,Seong-Joong Kim,James A. Screen,Theodore G. Shepherd,Timo Vihma +8 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a way forward based on understanding multiple processes that lead to uncertainties in Arctic and mid-latitude weather and climate linkages, and emphasize community coordination for both scientific progress and communication to a broader public.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
Mark P. Baldwin,Blanca Ayarzagüena,Thomas Birner,Thomas Birner,Neal Butchart,Amy H. Butler,Andrew Charlton-Perez,Daniela I. V. Domeisen,Chaim I. Garfinkel,Hella Garny,Edwin P. Gerber,Michaela I. Hegglin,Ulrike Langematz,Nicholas Pedatella +13 more
TL;DR: Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are impressive fluid dynamical events in which large and rapid temperature increases in the winter polar stratosphere (10−50km) are associated with a complete reversal of the climatological wintertime westerly winds.
Journal ArticleDOI
The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time‐scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts
Om Prakash Tripathi,Mark P. Baldwin,Andrew Charlton-Perez,Martin Charron,Stephen D. Eckermann,Edwin P. Gerber,R. Giles Harrison,David Jackson,Baek-Min Kim,Yuhji Kuroda,Andrea L. Lang,Sana Mahmood,Ryo Mizuta,Greg Roff,Michael Sigmond,Seok-Woo Son +15 more
TL;DR: In this article, a review of different stratospheric extreme vortex events shows that they can be skilfully forecasted beyond 5 days and into the sub-seasonal range (0 - 30 days) in some cases.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dick Dee,S. Uppala,Adrian Simmons,Paul Berrisford,Paul Poli,Shinya Kobayashi,Ulf Andrae,Magdalena Balmaseda,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bauer,Peter Bechtold,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,C. Delsol,Rossana Dragani,Manuel Fuentes,Alan J. Geer,Leopold Haimberger,Sean Healy,Hans Hersbach,Elías Hólm,Lars Isaksen,P. Kallberg,Martin Köhler,Marco Matricardi,A. P. McNally,B. M. Monge-Sanz,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,B.-K. Park,Carole Peubey,P. de Rosnay,Christina Tavolato,Jean-Noël Thépaut,Frederic Vitart +35 more
TL;DR: ERA-Interim as discussed by the authors is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century.
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Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
Nick Rayner,David E. Parker,E. B. Horton,Chris K. Folland,Lisa V. Alexander,David P. Rowell,Elizabeth C. Kent,Alexey Kaplan +7 more
TL;DR: HadISST1 as mentioned in this paper replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude-longitude grid from 1871.
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The ERA‐40 re‐analysis
S. Uppala,Per Kållberg,Adrian Simmons,U. Andrae,V. da Costa Bechtold,M. Fiorino,J. K. Gibson,J. Haseler,A. Hernandez,Graeme Kelly,Xiaoming Li,Kazutoshi Onogi,Sami Saarinen,N. Sokka,Richard P. Allan,Richard P. Allan,Erik Andersson,Klaus Arpe,Magdalena Balmaseda,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,S. Caires,Frédéric Chevallier,A. Dethof,M. Dragosavac,Michael Fisher,Manuel Fuentes,Stefan Hagemann,Elías Hólm,Brian J. Hoskins,Lars Isaksen,Peter A. E. M. Janssen,Roy L. Jenne,A. P. McNally,Jean-François Mahfouf,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,Nick Rayner,Roger Saunders,P. Simon,Andreas Sterl,Kevin E. Trenberth,A. Untch,Drasko Vasiljevic,Pedro Viterbo,John S. Woollen +46 more
TL;DR: ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes.
TL;DR: Observations show that large variations in the strength of the stratospheric circulation, appearing first above ∼50 kilometers, descend to the lowermost stratosphere and are followed by anomalous tropospheric weather regimes, which precede shifts in the probability distributions of extreme values of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations and the location of storm tracks.
Journal ArticleDOI
Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode
TL;DR: The recent trend in the NAM toward its high-index polarity with stronger subpolar westerlies has tended to reduce the severity of winter weather over most middle- and high-latitude Northern Hemisphere continental regions.
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