Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models
Piers M. Forster,Timothy Andrews,Peter Good,Jonathan M. Gregory,Jonathan M. Gregory,Lawrence S. Jackson,Mark D. Zelinka +6 more
TLDR
In this article, the authors used energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique.Abstract:
We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.read more
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Journal Article
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Stefano Schiavon,Roberto Zecchin +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a document, redatto, voted and pubblicato by the Ipcc -Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.
Book ChapterDOI
Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
TL;DR: Myhre et al. as discussed by the authors presented the contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative forcing.
Book Chapter
Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility
Matthew Collins,R. Knutti,Julie M. Arblaster,J.-L. Dufresne,T. Fichefet,P. Friedlingstein,Xuejie Gao,William J. Gutowski,T. Johns,Gerhard Krinner,Mxolisi Shongwe,C. Tebaldi,A.J. Weaver,M. F. Wehner +13 more
TL;DR: The authors assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system.
Journal ArticleDOI
Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing
TL;DR: The mixing inferred from observations appears to be sufficiently strong to imply a climate sensitivity of more than 3 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide, significantly higher than the currently accepted lower bound of 1.5 degrees, thereby constraining model projections towards relatively severe future warming.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3)
Neil C. Swart,Jason N. S. Cole,Viatcheslav Kharin,Mike Lazare,John Scinocca,Nathan P. Gillett,James Anstey,Vivek K. Arora,James R. Christian,Sarah J. Hanna,Yanjun Jiao,Warren G. Lee,Fouad Majaess,Oleg A. Saenko,Christian Seiler,Clint Seinen,Andrew Shao,Michael Sigmond,Larry Solheim,Knut von Salzen,Duo Yang,Barbara Winter +21 more
TL;DR: The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) as mentioned in this paper is a global model developed to simulate historical climate change and variability, to make centennial-scale projections of future climate, and to produce initialized seasonal and decadal predictions.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change 2001: the scientific basis
John Theodore Houghton,Y. Ding,David John Griggs,M. Noguer,P. J. van der Linden,X. Dai,K. Maskell,C. A. Johnson +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
TL;DR: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
TL;DR: In this article, Chen et al. present a survey of the state of the art in the field of computer vision and artificial intelligence, including a discussion of the role of the human brain in computer vision.
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