Extreme events: dynamics, statistics and prediction
Michael Ghil,Michael Ghil,Pascal Yiou,Stephane Hallegatte,Bruce D. Malamud,Philippe Naveau,A. Soloviev,Petra Friederichs,Vladimir Keilis-Borok,Dmitri Kondrashov,Vladimir Kossobokov,Olivier Mestre,C. Nicolis,Henning W. Rust,Peter Shebalin,Mathieu Vrac,Annette Witt,Annette Witt,Ilya Zaliapin +18 more
TLDR
Two important results refer to the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum and the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems.Abstract:
We review work on extreme events, their causes and consequences, by a group of European and American researchers involved in a three-year project on these topics The review covers theoretical aspects of time series analysis and of extreme value theory, as well as of the deterministic modeling of extreme events, via continuous and discrete dynamic models The applications include climatic, seismic and socio-economic events, along with their prediction Two important results refer to (i) the complementarity of spectral analysis of a time series in terms of the continuous and the discrete part of its power spectrum; and (ii) the need for coupled modeling of natural and socio-economic systems Both these results have implications for the study and prediction of natural hazards and their human impactsread more
Citations
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Climate extremes and the carbon cycle
Markus Reichstein,Michael Bahn,Philippe Ciais,Dorothea Frank,Miguel D. Mahecha,Sonia I. Seneviratne,Jakob Zscheischler,Jakob Zscheischler,Christian Beer,Christian Beer,Nina Buchmann,David Frank,Dario Papale,Anja Rammig,Pete Smith,Kirsten Thonicke,Marijn van der Velde,Sara Vicca,Ariane Walz,Martin Wattenbach +19 more
TL;DR: The mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle are explored, and a pathway to improve the understanding of present and future impacts ofClimate extremes onThe terrestrial carbon budget is proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems.
Jakob Runge,Jakob Runge,Vladimir Petoukhov,Jonathan F. Donges,Jonathan F. Donges,Jaroslav Hlinka,Nikola Jajcay,Nikola Jajcay,Martin Vejmelka,David Hartman,David Hartman,Norbert Marwan,Milan Paluš,Jürgen Kurths +13 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a data-driven approach is introduced based on a dimension reduction, causal reconstruction, and novel network measures based on causal effect theory that go beyond standard complex network tools by distinguishing direct from indirect pathways.
Journal ArticleDOI
A few extreme events dominate global interannual variability in gross primary production
Jakob Zscheischler,Jakob Zscheischler,Miguel D. Mahecha,Jannis von Buttlar,Stefan Harmeling,Martin Jung,Anja Rammig,James T. Randerson,Bernhard Schölkopf,Sonia I. Seneviratne,Enrico Tomelleri,Sönke Zaehle,Markus Reichstein +12 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors directly quantify spatiotemporal contiguous extreme anomalies in four global data sets of gross primary production (GPP) over the last 30 years, and find that positive and negative GPP extremes occurring on 7% of the spatio-temporal domain explain 78% of global interannual variation in GPP and a significant fraction of variation in the net carbon flux.
Journal ArticleDOI
The physics of climate variability and climate change
Michael Ghil,Valerio Lucarini +1 more
TL;DR: This paper reviewed the observational evidence on climate phenomena and the governing equations of planetary-scale flow, as well as presenting the key concept of a hierarchy of models as used in the climate sciences.
Journal ArticleDOI
Impacts of droughts and extreme-temperature events on gross primary production and ecosystem respiration: a systematic assessment across ecosystems and climate zones
Jannis von Buttlar,Jannis von Buttlar,Jakob Zscheischler,Jakob Zscheischler,Anja Rammig,Sebastian Sippel,Markus Reichstein,Alexander Knohl,Martin Jung,Olaf Menzer,M. Altaf Arain,Nina Buchmann,Alessandro Cescatti,Damiano Gianelle,Gerard Kiely,Beverly E. Law,Vincenzo Magliulo,Hank A. Margolis,Harry McCaughey,Lutz Merbold,Lutz Merbold,Mirco Migliavacca,Leonardo Montagnani,Walter C. Oechel,Walter C. Oechel,Marian Pavelka,Matthias Peichl,Serge Rambal,Antonio Raschi,Russell L. Scott,Francesco Primo Vaccari,Eva van Gorsel,Andrej Varlagin,Georg Wohlfahrt,Miguel D. Mahecha +34 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identify the major factors controlling the amplitude of extreme-event impacts on GPP, Reco, and the resulting net ecosystem production (NEP) in terrestrial biosphere.
References
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TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
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TL;DR: The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km) as discussed by the authors.
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The Fractal Geometry of Nature
TL;DR: This book is a blend of erudition, popularization, and exposition, and the illustrations include many superb examples of computer graphics that are works of art in their own right.
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A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth
TL;DR: In this paper, a model of long run growth is proposed and examples of possible growth patterns are given. But the model does not consider the long run of the economy and does not take into account the characteristics of interest and wage rates.