Showing papers in "Environmental Research Letters in 2014"

50 year trends in nitrogen use efficiency of world cropping systems: the relationship between yield and nitrogen input to cropland

Abstract: Nitrogen (N) is crucial for crop productivity. However, nowadays more than half of the N added to cropland is lost to the environment, wasting the resource, producing threats to air, water, soil and biodiversity, and generating greenhouse gas emissions. Based on FAO data, we have reconstructed the trajectory followed, in the past 50 years, by 124 countries in terms of crop yield and total nitrogen inputs to cropland (manure, synthetic fertilizer, symbiotic fixation and atmospheric deposition). During the last five decades, the response of agricultural systems to increased nitrogen fertilization has evolved differently in the different world countries. While some countries have improved their agro-environmental performances, in others the increased fertilization has produced low agronomical benefits and higher environmental losses. Our data also suggest that, in general, those countries using a higher proportion of N inputs from symbiotic N fixation rather than from synthetic fertilizer have a better N use efficiency.

Surface water inundation in the boreal-Arctic: potential impacts on regional methane emissions

Abstract: Northern wetlands may be vulnerable to increased carbon losses from methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas, under current warming trends. However, the dynamic nature of open water inundation and wetting/drying patterns may constrain regional emissions, offsetting the potential magnitude of methane release. Here we conduct a satellite data driven model investigation of the combined effects of surface warming and moisture variability on high northern latitude (⩾45° N) wetland CH4 emissions, by considering (1) sub-grid scale changes in fractional water inundation (Fw) at 15 day, monthly and annual intervals using 25km resolution satellite microwave retrievals, and (2) the impact of recent (2003–11) wetting/drying on northern CH4 emissions. The model simulations indicate mean summer contributions of 53 Tg CH4yr �1 from boreal-Arctic wetlands. Approximately 10% and 16% of the emissions originate from open water and landscapes with emergent vegetation, as determined from respective 15 day Fw means or maximums, and significant increases in regional CH4 efflux were observed when incorporating satellite observed inundated land fractions into the model simulations at monthly or annual time scales. The satellite Fw record reveals widespread wetting across the Arctic continuous permafrost zone, contrasting with surface drying in boreal Canada, Alaska and western Eurasia. Arctic wetting and summer warming increased wetland emissions by 0.56Tg CH4yr �1 compared to the 2003–11 mean, but this was mainly offset by decreasing emissions (�0.38Tg CH4yr �1 )i n sub-Arctic areas experiencing surface drying or cooling. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring changes in surface moisture and temperature when assessing the vulnerability of boreal-Arctic wetlands to enhanced greenhouse gas emissions under a shifting climate.

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

Abstract: Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe

Abstract: We use high quality climate data from ground meteorological stations in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and robust drought indices to confirm that drought severity has increased in the past five decades, as a consequence of greater atmospheric evaporative demand resulting from temperature rise. Increased drought severity is independent of the model used to quantify the reference evapotranspiration. We have also focused on drought impacts to drought-sensitive systems, such as river discharge, by analyzing streamflow data for 287 rivers in the IP, and found that hydrological drought frequency and severity have also increased in the past five decades in natural, regulated and highly regulated basins. Recent positive trend in the atmospheric water demand has had a direct influence on the temporal evolution of streamflows, clearly identified during the warm season, in which higher evapotranspiration rates are recorded. This pattern of increase in evaporative demand and greater drought severity is probably applicable to other semiarid regions of the world, including other Mediterranean areas, the Sahel, southern Australia and South Africa, and can be expected to increasingly compromise water supplies and cause political, social and economic tensions among regions in the near future.

'White revolution' to 'white pollution'— agricultural plastic film mulch in China

Abstract: Plastic film mulching has played an important role in Chinese agriculture due to its soil warming and moisture conservation effects. With the help of plastic film mulch technology, grain and cash crop yields have increased by 20–35% and 20–60%, respectively. The area of plastic film coverage in China reached approximately 20 million hectares, and the amount of plastic film used reached 1.25 million tons in 2011. While producing huge benefits, plastic film mulch technology has also brought on a series of pollution hazards. Large amounts of residual plastic film have detrimental effects on soil structure, water and nutrient transport and crop growth, thereby disrupting the agricultural environment and reducing crop production. To control pollution, the Chinese government urgently needs to elevate plastic film standards. Meanwhile, research and development of biodegradable mulch film and multi-functional mulch recovery machinery will help promote effective control and management of residual mulch pollution.

The socioeconomic drivers of China's primary PM 2:5 emissions

Abstract: Primary PM2:5 emissions contributed significantly to poor air quality in China. We present an interdisciplinary study to measure the magnitudes of socioeconomic factors in driving primary PM2:5 emission changes in China between 1997‐2010, by using a regional emission inventory as input into an environmentally extended input‐output framework and applying structural decomposition analysis. Our results show that China’s significant efficiency gains fully offset emissions growth triggered by economic growth and other drivers. Capital formation is the largest final demand category in contributing annual PM2:5 emissions, but the associated emission level is steadily declining. Exports is the only final demand category that drives emission growth between 1997‐2010. The production of exports led to emissions of 638 thousand tonnes of PM2:5, half of the EU27 annual total, and six times that of Germany. Embodied emissions in Chinese exports are largely driven by consumption in OECD countries.

The effectiveness of cool and green roofs as urban heat island mitigation strategies

Abstract: Mitigation of the urban heat island (UHI) effect at the city-scale is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in conjunction with the Princeton Urban Canopy Model (PUCM). Specifically, the cooling impacts of green roof and cool (white/high-albedo) roof strategies over the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area during a heat wave period (7 June?10 June 2008) are assessed using the optimal set-up of WRF-PUCM described in the companion paper by Li and Bou-Zeid (2014). Results indicate that the surface UHI effect (defined based on the urban?rural surface temperature difference) is reduced significantly more than the near-surface UHI effect (defined based on urban?rural 2 m air temperature difference) when these mitigation strategies are adopted. In addition, as the green and cool roof fractions increase, the surface and near-surface UHIs are reduced almost linearly. Green roofs with relatively abundant soil moisture have comparable effect in reducing the surface and near-surface UHIs to cool roofs with an albedo value of 0.7. Significant indirect effects are also observed for both green and cool roof strategies; mainly, the low-level advection of atmospheric moisture from rural areas into urban terrain is enhanced when the fraction of these roofs increases, thus increasing the humidity in urban areas. The additional benefits or penalties associated with modifications of the main physical determinants of green or cool roof performance are also investigated. For green roofs, when the soil moisture is increased by irrigation, additional cooling effect is obtained, especially when the ?unmanaged? soil moisture is low. The effects of changing the albedo of cool roofs are also substantial. These results also underline the capabilities of the WRF-PUCM framework to support detailed analysis and diagnosis of the UHI phenomenon, and of its different mitigation strategies.

Sustainability of global water use: past reconstruction and future projections

Abstract: Overuse of surface water and an increasing reliance on nonrenewable groundwater resources have been reported over various regions of the world, casting significant doubt on the sustainable water supply and food production met by irrigation. To assess the limitations of global water resources, numerous indicators have been developed, but they rarely consider nonrenewable water use. In addition, surface water over-abstraction is rarely assessed in the context of human and environmental water needs. Here, we perform a transient assessment of global water use over the historical period 1960–2010 as well as the future projections of 2011–2099, using a newly developed indicator: the blue water sustainability index (BlWSI). The BlWSI incorporates both nonrenewable groundwater use and nonsustainable water use that compromises environmental flow requirements. Our results reveal an increasing trend of water consumed from nonsustainable surface water and groundwater resources over the historical period (∼30%), and this increase is projected to continue further towards the end of this century (∼40%). The global amount of nonsustainable water consumption has been increasing especially since the late 1990s, despite a wetter climate and increasing water availability during this period. The BlWSI is the first tool suitable for consistently evaluating the renewability and degradation of surface water and groundwater resources as a result of human water over-abstraction. S Online supplementary data available from stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/104003/mmedia

The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate

Abstract: Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120 ± 85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7 ± 4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29 ± 0.21 °C or 7.8 ± 5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation.

Groundwater extraction, land subsidence, and sea-level rise in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Abstract: Groundwater exploitation is a major cause of land subsidence, which in coastal areas poses a flood inundation hazard that is compounded by the threat of sea-level rise (SLR). In the lower Mekong Delta, most of which lies <2 m above sea level, over-exploitation is inducing widespread hydraulic head (i.e., groundwater level) declines. The average rate of head decline is ~0.3 m yr−1, based on time-series data from 79 nested monitoring wells at 18 locations. The consequent compaction of sedimentary layers at these locations is calculated to be causing land subsidence at an average rate of 1.6 cm yr−1. We further measure recent subsidence rates (annual average, 2006–10) throughout the Delta, by analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), using 78 ALOS PALSAR interferograms. InSAR-based subsidence rates are 1) consistent with compaction-based rates calculated at monitoring wells, and 2) ~1–4 cm yr−1 over large (1000s of km2) regions. Ours are the first mapped estimates of Delta-wide land subsidence due to groundwater pumping. If pumping continues at present rates, ~0.88 m (0.35–1.4 m) of land subsidence is expected by 2050. Anticipated SLR of ~0.10 m (0.07–0.14 m) by 2050 will compound flood inundation potential. Our results suggest that by mid-century portions of the Mekong Delta will likely experience ~1 m (0.42–1.54 m) of additional inundation hazard.

The European climate under a 2 C global warming

Abstract: A global warming of 2 C relative to pre-industrial climate has been considered as a threshold which society should endeavor to remain below, in order to limit the dangerous effects of anthropogenic climate change. The possible changes in regional climate under this target level of global warming have so far not been investigated in detail. Using an ensemble of 15 regional climate simulations downscaling six transient global climate simulations, we identify the respective time periods corresponding to 2 C global warming, describe the range of projected changes for the European climate for this level of global warming, and investigate the uncertainty across the multi-model ensemble. Robust changes in mean and extreme temperature, precipitation, winds and surface energy budgets are found based on the ensemble of simulations. The results indicate that most of Europe will experience higher warming than the global average. They also reveal strong distributional patterns across Europe, which will be important in subsequent impact assessments and adaptation responses in different countries and regions. For instance, a North‐South (West‐East) warming gradient is found for summer (winter) along with a general increase in heavy precipitation and summer extreme temperatures. Tying the ensemble analysis to time periods with a prescribed global temperature change rather than fixed time periods allows for the identification of more robust regional patterns of temperature changes due to removal of some of the uncertainty related to the global models’ climate sensitivity.

Glacier mass changes on the Tibetan Plateau 2003-2009 derived from ICESat laser altimetry measurements

Abstract: Glacier mass changes are a valuable indicator of climate variability and monsoon oscillation on the underexplored Tibetan Plateau. In this study data from the Ice Cloud and Elevation Satellite (ICESat) is employed to estimate elevation and mass changes of glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau between 2003 and 2009. In order to get a representative sample size of ICESat measurements, glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau were grouped into eight climatically homogeneous sub-regions. Most negative mass budgets of ? 0.77 ? 0.35?m?w.e.?a?1 were found for the Qilian Mountains and eastern Kunlun Mountains while a mass gain of + 0.37 ? 0.25?m?w.e.?a?1 was found in the westerly-dominated north-central part of the Tibetan Plateau. A total annual mass budget of ? 15.6 ? 10.1?Gt?a?1 was estimated for the eight sub-regions sufficiently covered by ICESat data which represents ?80% of the glacier area on the Tibetan Plateau. 13.9 ? 8.9?Gt?a?1 (or 0.04 ? 0.02?mm?a?1 sea-level equivalent) of the total mass budget contributed ?directly? to the global sea-level rise while 1.7 ? 1.9?Gt?a?1 drained into endorheic basins on the plateau.

Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

Abstract: Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr �1 . Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr �1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

The Haber Bosch-harmful algal bloom (HB-HAB) link

Abstract: Large-scale commercialization of the Haber–Bosch (HB) process is resulting in intensification of nitrogen (N) fertilizer use worldwide. Globally N fertilizer use is far outpacing that of phosphorus (P) fertilizer. Much of the increase in N fertilizers is also now in the form of urea, a reduced form of N. Incorporation of these fertilizers into agricultural products is inefficient leading to significant environmental pollution and aquatic eutrophication. Of particular concern is the increased occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) in waters receiving nutrient enriched runoff. Many phytoplankton causing HABs have physiological adaptive strategies that make them favored under conditions of elevated N : P conditions and supply of chemically reduced N (ammonium, urea). We propose that the HB-HAB link is a function of (1) the inefficiency of incorporation of N fertilizers in the food supply chain, the leakiness of the N cycle from crop to table, and the fate of lost N relative to P to the environment; and (2) adaptive physiology of many HABs to thrive in environments in which there is excess N relative to classic nutrient stoichiometric proportions and where chemically reduced forms of N dominate. The rate of HAB expansion is particularly pronounced in China where N fertilizer use has escalated very rapidly, where soil retention is declining, and where blooms have had large economic and ecological impacts. There, in addition to increased use of urea and high N : P based fertilizers overall, escalating aquaculture production adds to the availability of reduced forms of N, as does atmospheric deposition of ammonia. HABs in both freshwaters and marginal seas in China are highly related to these overall changing N loads and ratios. Without more aggressive N control the future outlook in terms of HABs is likely to include more events, more often, and they may also be more toxic.

Nitrogen footprints: past, present and future

Abstract: The human alteration of the nitrogen cycle has evolved from minimal in the mid-19th century to extensive in the present time. The consequences to human and environmental health are significant. While much attention has been given to the extent and impacts of the alteration, little attention has been given to those entities (i.e., consumers, institutions) that use the resources that result in extensive reactive nitrogen (Nr) creation. One strategy for assessment is the use of nitrogen footprint tools. A nitrogen footprint is generally defined as the total amount of Nr released to the environment as a result of an entity's consumption patterns. This paper reviews a number of nitrogen footprint tools (N-Calculator, N-Institution, N-Label, N-Neutrality, N-Indicator) that are designed to provide that attention. It reviews N-footprint tools for consumers as a function of the country that they live in (N-Calculator, N-Indicator) and the products they buy (N-Label), for the institutions that people work in and are educated in (N-Institution), and for events and decision-making regarding offsets (N-Neutrality). N footprint tools provide a framework for people to make decisions about their resource use and show them how offsets can be coupled with behavior change to decrease consumer/institution contributions to N-related problems.

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

Abstract: One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January–February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (∼5–20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

Rapid growth in agricultural trade: effects on global area efficiency and the role of management

Abstract: Cropland is crucial for supplying humans with biomass products, above all, food. Globalization has led to soaring volumes of international trade, resulting in strongly increasing distances between the locations where land use takes place and where the products are consumed. Based on a dataset that allows tracing the flows of almost 450 crop and livestock products and consistently allocating them to cropland areas in over 200 nations, we analyze this rapidly growing spatial disconnect between production and consumption for the period from 1986 to 2009. At the global level, land for export production grew rapidly (by about 100 Mha), while land supplying crops for direct domestic use remained virtually unchanged. We show that international trade on average flows from high-yield to low-yield regions: compared to a hypothetical no-trade counterfactual that assumes equal consumption and yield levels, trade lowered global cropland demand by almost 90 Mha in 2008 (3-year mean). An analysis using yield gap data (which quantify the distance of prevailing yields to those attainable through the best currently available production techniques) revealed that differences in land management and in natural endowments contribute almost equally to the yield differences between exporting and importing nations. A comparison of the effect of yield differences between exporting and importing regions with the potential of closing yield gaps suggests that increasing yields holds greater potentials for reducing future cropland demand than increasing and adjusting trade volumes based on differences in current land productivity.

A few extreme events dominate global interannual variability in gross primary production

Abstract: Understanding the impacts of climate extremes on the carbon cycle is important for quantifying the carbon-cycle climate feedback and highly relevant to climate change assessments. Climate extremes and fires can have severe regional effects, but a spatially explicit global impact assessment is still lacking. Here, we directly quantify spatiotemporal contiguous extreme anomalies in four global data sets of gross primary production (GPP) over the last 30 years. We find that positive and negative GPP extremes occurring on 7% of the spatiotemporal domain explain 78% of the global interannual variation in GPP and a significant fraction of variation in the net carbon flux. The largest thousand negative GPP extremes during 1982?2011 (4.3% of the data) account for a decrease in photosynthetic carbon uptake of about 3.5?Pg?C?yr?1, with most events being attributable to water scarcity. The results imply that it is essential to understand the nature and causes of extremes to understand current and future GPP variability.

The water consumption of energy production: an international comparison

Abstract: Producing energy resources requires significant quantities of fresh water. As an energy sector changes or expands, the mix of technologies deployed to produce fuels and electricity determines the associated burden on regional water resources. Many reports have identified the water consumption of various energy production technologies. This paper synthesizes and expands upon this previous work by exploring the geographic distribution of water use by national energy portfolios. By defining and calculating an indicator to compare the water consumption of energy production for over 150 countries, we estimate that approximately 52 billion cubic meters of fresh water is consumed annually for global energy production. Further, in consolidating the data, it became clear that both the quality of the data and global reporting standards should be improved to track this important variable at the global scale. By introducing a consistent indicator to empirically assess coupled water–energy systems, it is hoped that this research will provide greater visibility into the magnitude of water use for energy production at the national and global scales. S Online supplementary data available from stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/105002/mmedia

Policies for agricultural nitrogen management?trends, challenges and prospects for improved efficiency in Denmark

Abstract: With more than 60% of the land farmed, with vulnerable freshwater and marine environments, and with one of the most intensive, export-oriented livestock sectors in the world, the nitrogen (N) pollution pressure from Danish agriculture is severe. Consequently, a series of policy action plans have been implemented since the mid 1980s with significant effects on the surplus, efficiency and environmental loadings of N. This paper reviews the policies and actions taken and their ability to mitigate effects of reactive N (Nr) while maintaining agricultural production. In summary, the average N-surplus has been reduced from approximately 170 kg N ha?1 yr?1 to below 100 kg N ha?1 yr?1 during the past 30 yrs, while the overall N-efficiency for the agricultural sector (crop?+?livestock farming) has increased from around 20?30% to 40?45%, the N-leaching from the field root zone has been halved, and N losses to the aquatic and atmospheric environment have been significantly reduced. This has been achieved through a combination of approaches and measures (ranging from command and control legislation, over market-based regulation and governmental expenditure to information and voluntary action), with specific measures addressing the whole N cascade, in order to improve the quality of ground- and surface waters, and to reduce the deposition to terrestrial natural ecosystems. However, there is still a major challenge in complying with the EU Water Framework and Habitats Directives, calling for new approaches, measures and technologies to mitigate agricultural N losses and control N flows.

Impact of aerosol?meteorology interactions on fine particle pollution during China?s severe haze episode in January 2013

Abstract: In January 2013, a severe regional haze occurred over the North China Plain. An online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model was employed to simulate the impacts of aerosol?meteorology interactions on fine particles (PM2.5) pollution during this haze episode. The response of PM2.5 to meteorology change constituted a feedback loop whereby planetary boundary layer (PBL) dynamics amplified the initial perturbation of PM2.5. High PM2.5 concentrations caused a decrease of surface solar radiation. The maximal decrease in daily average solar radiation reached 53% in Beijing, thereby leading to a more stable PBL. The peak PBL height in Beijing decreased from 690 m to 590 m when the aerosol extinction was considered. Enhanced PBL stability suppressed the dispersion of air pollutants, and resulted in higher PM2.5 concentrations. The maximal increase of PM2.5 concentrations reached 140 ?g m?3 in Beijing. During most PM2.5 episodes, primary and secondary particles increased simultaneously. These results imply that the aerosol?radiation interactions played an important role in the haze episode in January 2013.

Flood extent mapping for Namibia using change detection and thresholding with SAR

Abstract: A new method for flood detection change detection and thresholding (CDAT) was used with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to delineate the extent of flooding for the Chobe floodplain in the Caprivi region of Namibia. This region experiences annual seasonal flooding and has seen a recent renewal of severe flooding after a long dry period in the 1990s. Flooding in this area has caused loss of life and livelihoods for the surrounding communities and has caught the attention of disaster relief agencies. There is a need for flood extent mapping techniques that can be used to process images quickly, providing near real-time flooding information to relief agencies. ENVISAT/ASAR and Radarsat-2 images were acquired for several flooding seasons from February 2008 to March 2013. The CDAT method was used to determine flooding from these images and includes the use of image subtraction, decision-based classification with threshold values, and segmentation of SAR images. The total extent of flooding determined for 2009, 2011 and 2012 was about 542 km 2 , 720 km 2 , and 673 km 2 respectively. Pixels determined to be flooded in vegetation were typically <0:5% of the entire scene, with the exception of 2009 where the detection of flooding in vegetation was much greater (almost one third of the total flooded area). The time to maximum flooding for the 2013 flood season was determined to be about 27 days. Landsat water classification was used to compare the results from the new CDAT with SAR method; the results show good spatial agreement with Landsat scenes.

Global assessment of urban and peri-urban agriculture: irrigated and rainfed croplands

Abstract: The role of urban agriculture in global food security is a topic of increasing discussion. Existing research on urban and peri-urban agriculture consists largely of case studies that frequently use disparate definitions of urban and peri-urban agriculture depending on the local context and study objectives. This lack of consistency makes quantification of the extent of this practice at the global scale difficult. This study instead integrates global data on croplands and urban extents using spatial overlay analysis to estimate the global area of urban and peri-urban irrigated and rainfed croplands. The global area of urban irrigated croplands was estimated at about 24 Mha (11.0 percent of all irrigated croplands) with a cropping intensity of 1.48. The global area of urban rainfed croplands found was approximately 44 Mha (4.7 percent of all rainfed croplands) with a cropping intensity of 1.03. These values were derived from the MIRCA2000 Maximum Monthly Cropped Area Grids for irrigated and rainfed crops and therefore their sum does not necessarily represent the total urban cropland area when the maximum extent of irrigated and rainfed croplands occurs in different months. Further analysis of croplands within 20 km of urban extents show that 60 and 35 percent of, respectively, all irrigated and rainfed croplands fall within this distance range. S Online supplementary data available from stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/114002/mmedia

Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean

Abstract: The North Atlantic sea surface temperature exhibits fluctuations on the multidecadal time scale, a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This letter demonstrates that the multidecadal fluctuations of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are tied to the AMO, with an opposite-signed relationship between the polarities of the AMO and the NAO. Our statistical analyses suggest that the AMO signal precedes the NAO by 10–15 years with an interesting predictability window for decadal forecasting. The AMO footprint is also detected in the multidecadal variability of the intraseasonal weather regimes of the North Atlantic sector. This observational evidence is robust over the entire 20th century and it is supported by numerical experiments with an atmospheric global climate model. The simulations suggest that the AMO-related SST anomalies induce the atmospheric anomalies by shifting the atmospheric baroclinic zone over the North Atlantic basin. As in observations, the positive phase of the AMO results in more frequent negative NAO—and blocking episodes in winter that promote the occurrence of cold extreme temperatures over the eastern United States and Europe. Thus, it is plausible that the AMO plays a role in the recent resurgence of severe winter weather in these regions and that wintertime cold extremes will be promoted as long as the AMO remains positive.

Expansion and growth in Chinese cities, 1978?2010

Abstract: It has long been recognized that compact versus more sprawling urban forms can have very different environmental impacts. As the Chinese population continues to rapidly urbanize, the size, shape, and configuration of cities in China will undoubtedly change to accommodate expansion of housing, industry, and commerce, causing direct and indirect environmental impacts at multiple scales. It is therefore imperative to understand how urban areas are evolving as socio-economic reforms in China are implemented across different regions. This paper compares trends in 142 Chinese cities (including 17 agglomerations) to understand urban expansion and population growth following reforms, 1978?2010. The results show that cities tripled in size, while doubling in population over the same period. In coastal areas targeted by early policies, urban land increased 4?5 times since 1978, for all city sizes. Large agglomerations are the primary consumers of land in coastal and western regions, each adding an average of 450?km2 during the study period, while small-medium cities consumed an average 20?km2. Although populations in these agglomerations increased an average 1.3 million, 2000?2010, cities within 100?km of each agglomeration grew >1.8 million collectively. Proximity to large agglomerations contributed to the growth of small-medium cities, especially in western regions.

Commitment accounting of CO 2 emissions

Abstract: The world not only continues to build new coal-fired power plants, but built more new coal plants in the past decade than in any previous decade. Worldwide, an average of 89 gigawatts per year (GW yr –1 ) of new coal generating capacity was added between 2010 and 2012, 23 GW yr –1 more than in the 2000–2009 time period and 56 GW yr –1 more than in the 1990–1999 time period. Natural gas plants show a similar pattern. Assuming these plants operate for 40 years, the fossil-fuel burning plants built in 2012 will emit approximately 19 billion tons of CO2 (Gt CO2) over their lifetimes, versus 14 Gt CO2 actually emitted by all operating fossil fuel power plants in 2012. We find that total committed emissions related to the power sector are growing at a rate of about 4% per year, and reached 307 (with an estimated uncertainty of 192–439) Gt CO2 in 2012. These facts are not well known in the energy policy community, where annual emissions receive far more attention than future emissions related to new capital investments. This paper demonstrates the potential for ‘commitment accounting’ to inform public policy by quantifying future emissions implied by current investments. S Online supplementary data available from stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/084018/mmedia

Diet change—a solution to reduce water use?

Abstract: Water and land resources are under increasing pressure in many parts of the globe. Diet change has been suggested as a measure to contribute to adequate food security for the growing population. This paper assesses the impact of diet change on the blue and green water footprints of food consumption. We first compare the water consumption of the current diets with that of a scenario where dietary guidelines are followed. Then, we assess these footprints by applying four scenarios in which we gradually limit the amount of protein from animal products to 50%, 25%, 12.5% and finally 0% of the total protein intake. We find that the current water use at the global scale would be sufficient to secure a recommended diet and worldwide energy intake. Reducing the animal product contribution in the diet would decrease global green water consumption by 6%, 11%, 15% and 21% within the four applied scenarios, while for blue water, the reductions would be 4%, 6%, 9% and 14%. In Latin America, Europe, Central and Eastern Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, diet change mainly reduces green water use, while in the Middle East region, North America, Australia and Oceania, both blue and green water footprints decrease considerably. At the same time, in South and Southeast Asia, diet change does not result in decreased water use. Our results show that reducing animal products in the human diet offers the potential to save water resources, up to the amount currently required to feed 1.8 billion additional people globally; however, our results show that the adjustments should be considered on a local level.

The distribution and amount of carbon in the largest peatland complex in Amazonia

Abstract: Peatlands in Amazonian Peru are known to store large quantities of carbon, but there is high uncertainty in the spatial extent and total carbon stocks of these ecosystems. Here, we use a multi-sensor (Landsat, ALOS PALSAR and SRTM) remote sensing approach, together with field data including 24 forest census plots and 218 peat thickness measurements, to map the distribution of peatland vegetation types and calculate the combined above- and below-ground carbon stock of peatland ecosystems in the Pastaza-Maranon foreland basin in Peru. We find that peatlands cover 35 600±2133 km 2 and contain 3.14 (0.44–8.15) Pg C. Variation in peat thickness and bulk density are the most important sources of uncertainty in these values. One particular ecosystem type, peatland pole forest, is found to be the most carbon-dense ecosystem yet identified in Amazonia (1391±710 Mg C ha �1 ). The novel approach of combining optical and radar remote sensing with above- and below-ground carbon inventories is recommended for developing regional carbon estimates for tropical peatlands globally. Finally, we suggest that Amazonian peatlands should be a priority for research and conservation before the developing regional infrastructure causes an acceleration in the exploitation and degradation of these ecosystems. S Online supplementary data available from stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/124017/mmedia

Impact of heat stress on crop yield—on the importance of considering canopy temperature

Abstract: Increasing crop productivity while simultaneously reducing the environmental footprint of crop production is considered a major challenge for the coming decades. Even short episodes of heat stress can reduce crop yield considerably causing low resource use efficiency. Studies on the impact of heat stress on crop yields over larger regions generally rely on temperatures measured by standard weather stations at 2 m height. Canopy temperatures measured in this study in field plots of rye were up to 7 °C higher than air temperature measured at typical weather station height with the differences in temperatures controlled by soil moisture contents. Relationships between heat stress and grain number derived from controlled environment studies were only confirmed under field conditions when canopy temperature was used to calculate stress thermal time. By using hourly mean temperatures measured by 78 weather stations located across Germany for the period 1994–2009 it is estimated, that mean yield declines in wheat due to heat stress during flowering were 0.7% when temperatures are measured at 2 m height, but yield declines increase to 22% for temperatures measured at the ground. These results suggest that canopy temperature should be simulated or estimated to reduce uncertainty in assessing heat stress impacts on crop yield.

The extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin: The role of tropical-subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient

Abstract: Unprecedented wet conditions are reported in the 2014 summer (December–March) in Southwestern Amazon, with rainfall about 100% above normal. Discharge in the Madeira River (the main southern Amazon tributary) has been 74% higher than normal (58 000 m 3 s −1 ) at Porto Velho and 380% (25 000 m 3 s −1 ) at Rurrenabaque, at the exit of the Andes in summer, while levels of the Rio Negro at Manaus were 29.47 m in June 2014, corresponding to the fifth highest record during the 113 years record of the Rio Negro. While previous floods in Amazonia have been related to La Nina and/or warmer than normal tropical South Atlantic, the 2014 rainfall and flood anomalies are associated with warm condition in the western Pacific-Indian Ocean and with an exceptionally warm Subtropical South Atlantic. Our results suggest that the tropical and subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient is a main driver for moisture transport from the Atlantic toward southwestern Amazon, and this became exceptionally intense during summer of 2014.