Extreme Precipitation Indices over China in CMIP5 Models. Part I: Model Evaluation

TLDR: In this article, simulations in 31 climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been quantitatively assessed using skill-score metrics, including total precipitation (PRCPTOT), maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), precipitation intensity (SDII), and fraction of total rainfall from heavy events (R95T).

Abstract: Compared to precipitation extremes calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1960–2005, simulations in 31 climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been quantitatively assessed using skill-score metrics. Four extreme precipitation indices, including the total precipitation (PRCPTOT), maximum consecutive dry days (CDD), precipitation intensity (SDII), and fraction of total rainfall from heavy events (R95T) are analyzed. Results show that CMIP5 models still have wet biases in western and northern China. Especially in western China, the models’ median relative error is about 120% for PRCPTOT; the 25th and 75th percentile errors are of 70% and 220%, respectively. However, there are dry biases in southeastern China, where the underestimation of PRCPTOT reach 200 mm. The performance of CMIP5 models is quite different between western and eastern China. The simulations are more reliable in the east than in the west in terms of...