Journal ArticleDOI
Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change
TLDR
In this paper, the authors compare the present latitudes of seedlings and adult trees at their range limits using large-scale forest inventory data and find no consistent evidence that population spread is greatest in areas where climate has changed most; nor are patterns related to seed size or dispersal characteristics.Abstract:
Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations, but current evidence of latitudinal range shifts for suites of species is largely indirect. In response to global warming, offspring of trees are predicted to have ranges extend beyond adults at leading edges and the opposite relationship at trailing edges. Large-scale forest inventory data provide an opportunity to compare present latitudes of seedlings and adult trees at their range limits. Using the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis data, we directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States. We further compared these latitudes with 20th century temperature and precipitation change and functional traits, including seed size and seed spread rate. Results suggest that 58.7% of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction, rather than expansion, at both northern and southern boundaries. Fewer species show a pattern consistent with a northward shift (20.7%) and fewer still with a southward shift (16.3%). Only 4.3% are consistent with expansion at both range limits. When compared with the 20th century climate changes that have occurred at the range boundaries themselves, there is no consistent evidence that population spread is greatest in areas where climate has changed most; nor are patterns related to seed size or dispersal characteristics. The fact that the majority of seedling extreme latitudes are less than those for adult trees may emphasize the lack of evidence for climate-mediated migration, and should increase concerns for the risks posed by climate change.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Marine Taxa Track Local Climate Velocities
Malin L. Pinsky,Malin L. Pinsky,Boris Worm,Michael J. Fogarty,Jorge L. Sarmiento,Simon A. Levin +5 more
TL;DR: Using nearly 50 years of coastal survey data on >350 marine taxa, Pinsky et al. found that climate velocity was a much better predictor of patterns of change than individual species' characteristics or life histories.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate-related range shifts – a global multidimensional synthesis and new research directions
TL;DR: In this article, a review of the state of the art on geographical patterns of species range shifts under contemporary climate change for plants and animals across both terrestrial and marine ecosystems is presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability
Camilo Mora,Abby G. Frazier,Ryan J. Longman,Rachel Dacks,Maya M. Walton,Eric J. Tong,Joseph J. Sanchez,Lauren R. Kaiser,Yuko O. Stender,James M. Anderson,Christine M. Ambrosino,Iria Fernandez-Silva,Louise M. Giuseffi,Thomas W. Giambelluca +13 more
TL;DR: A new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios is presented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Will plant movements keep up with climate change
TL;DR: This review compares how fast plants need to move with how fast they can move with the velocity of climate change, which shows how much of a problem failure to track climate change is likely to be.
References
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Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Journal ArticleDOI
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Camille Parmesan,Gary W. Yohe +1 more
TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ecological responses to recent climate change.
Gian-Reto Walther,Eric Post,Peter Convey,Annette Menzel,Camille Parmesan,Trevor J. C. Beebee,Jean-Marc Fromentin,Ove Hoegh-Guldberg,Franz Bairlein +8 more
TL;DR: A review of the ecological impacts of recent climate change exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments.
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