Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment
Christel Prudhomme,Ignazio Giuntoli,Emma L. Robinson,Douglas B. Clark,Nigel W. Arnell,Rutger Dankers,Balázs M. Fekete,Wietse Franssen,Dieter Gerten,Simon N. Gosling,Stefan Hagemann,David M. Hannah,Hyungjun Kim,Yoshimitsu Masaki,Yusuke Satoh,Tobias Stacke,Yoshihide Wada,Dominik Wisser,Dominik Wisser +18 more
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This study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought.Abstract:
Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.read more
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Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
Jacob Schewe,Jens Heinke,Jens Heinke,Dieter Gerten,Ingjerd Haddeland,Nigel W. Arnell,Douglas B. Clark,Rutger Dankers,Stephanie Eisner,Balázs M. Fekete,Felipe J. Colón-González,Simon N. Gosling,Hyungjun Kim,Xingcai Liu,Yoshimitsu Masaki,Felix T. Portmann,Felix T. Portmann,Yusuke Satoh,Tobias Stacke,Qiuhong Tang,Yoshihide Wada,Dominik Wisser,Torsten Albrecht,Katja Frieler,Franziska Piontek,Lila Warszawski,Pavel Kabat +26 more
TL;DR: It is shown that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably and GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.
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The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data
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Hydrological drought explained
TL;DR: A review of the current state of scientific knowledge of definitions, processes, and quantification of hydrological drought is given in this paper, where the influence of climate and terrestrial properties (geology, land use) on hydrologic drought characteristics and the role of storage is discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,Tabea Lissner,Erich M. Fischer,Jan Wohland,Mahé Perrette,Antonius Golly,Joeri Rogelj,Joeri Rogelj,Katelin Childers,Jacob Schewe,Katja Frieler,Matthias Mengel,William Hare,Michiel Schaeffer +13 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss.
Journal ArticleDOI
The future of evapotranspiration: global requirements for ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources.
Joshua B. Fisher,Forrest Melton,Elizabeth M. Middleton,Christopher Hain,Christopher Hain,Martha C. Anderson,Richard G. Allen,Matthew F. McCabe,Simon J. Hook,Dennis D. Baldocchi,Philip A. Townsend,Ayse Kilic,Kevin P. Tu,Diego G. Miralles,Johan Perret,Jean-Pierre Lagouarde,Duane E. Waliser,A. J. Purdy,Andrew N. French,David S. Schimel,James S. Famiglietti,Graeme L. Stephens,Eric F. Wood +22 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe how evapotranspiration represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them.
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