Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves.
Simon Bauer,Sebastian Contreras,Sebastian Contreras,Jonas Dehning,Matthias Linden,Matthias Linden,Emil Iftekhar,Sebastian B. Mohr,Álvaro Olivera-Nappa,Viola Priesemann,Viola Priesemann +10 more
TLDR
In this paper, an age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data were used to quantify the rate at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems.Abstract:
Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of ICU patients and deceased. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; Taking the European Union (EU) as an example case, all considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 and relaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact restrictions will remain necessary. However, only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible. Strategies that maintain low case numbers, instead of high ones, reduce infections and deaths by factors of eleven and five, respectively. In general, policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it considerably reduces mortality and morbidity and offers better preparedness against emerging escape or more contagious virus variants while still allowing for higher contact numbers (freedom) with progressing vaccinations.read more
Citations
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation.
Emil Iftekhar,Viola Priesemann,Rudi Balling,Simon Bauer,Philippe Beutels,André Calero Valdez,Sarah Cuschieri,Thomas Czypionka,Uga Dumpis,Enrico Glaab,Eva Grill,Claudia Hanson,Pirta Hotulainen,Peter Klimek,Mirjam Kretzschmar,Tyll Krüger,Jenny Krutzinna,Nicola Low,Helena Machado,Carlos Martins,Martin McKee,Sebastian B. Mohr,Armin Nassehi,Matjaž Perc,Elena Petelos,Martyn Pickersgill,Barbara Prainsack,Joacim Rocklöv,Eva S. Schernhammer,Anthony Staines,Ewa Szczurek,Sotirios Tsiodras,Steven Van Gucht,Peter Willeit +33 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, including progress of national and global vaccination programs, emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).
Posted ContentDOI
Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout: a modeling study
João Viana,João Viana,Christiaan H. van Dorp,Ana Nunes,Manuel C. Gomes,Michiel van Boven,Mirjam Kretzschmar,Marc Veldhoen,Ganna Rozhnova,Ganna Rozhnova +9 more
TL;DR: It is suggested that the pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities could lead to new pandemic waves, and that substantial control efforts prove necessary throughout 2021, and at which point control of COVID-19 would be achieved.
Journal ArticleDOI
Risking further COVID-19 waves despite vaccination.
Posted ContentDOI
Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns.
Sebastian Contreras,Sebastian Contreras,Jonas Dehning,Sebastian B. Mohr,Simon Bauer,F. Paul Spitzner,Viola Priesemann,Viola Priesemann +7 more
TL;DR: This work analytically derives the existence of a third, viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where test-trace-and-isolate policies partially compensate for local spreading events, and only moderate contact restrictions remain necessary, and minimises lockdown duration and hence economic impact.
Journal ArticleDOI
Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes
Tyll Krueger,Krzysztof Gogolewski,Marcin Bodych,Anna Gambin,Giulia Giordano,Sarah Cuschieri,Thomas Czypionka,Matjaž Perc,E. Petelos,Magdalena Rosinska,Ewa Szczurek +10 more
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors proposed the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders than for the rest of the population, imperfect vaccination effectiveness against infection, rates of (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction of never-vaccinated, and the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant.
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine.
Fernando P. Polack,Stephen J. Thomas,Nicholas Kitchin,Judith Absalon,Alejandra Gurtman,Stephen Lockhart,John L. Perez,Gonzalo Pérez Marc,Edson D. Moreira,Cristiano Zerbini,Ruth Bailey,Kena A. Swanson,Satrajit Roychoudhury,Kenneth Koury,Ping Li,Warren Kalina,David A. Cooper,Robert W. Frenck,Laura L. Hammitt,Özlem Türeci,Haylene Nell,Axel Schaefer,Serhat Ünal,Dina B. Tresnan,Susan Mather,Philip R. Dormitzer,Ugur Sahin,Kathrin U. Jansen,William C. Gruber +28 more
TL;DR: A two-dose regimen of BNT162b2 conferred 95% protection against Covid-19 in persons 16 years of age or older and safety over a median of 2 months was similar to that of other viral vaccines.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application.
Stephen A. Lauer,Kyra H. Grantz,Qifang Bi,Forrest K. Jones,Qulu Zheng,Hannah R. Meredith,Andrew S. Azman,Nicholas G. Reich,Justin Lessler +8 more
TL;DR: The results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases.
Journal ArticleDOI
Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19.
Xi He,Eric H. Y. Lau,Peng Wu,Xilong Deng,Jian Wang,Xinxin Hao,Yiu Chung Lau,Jessica Y. Wong,Yujuan Guan,Xinghua Tan,Xiaoneng Mo,Yanqing Chen,Baolin Liao,Weilie Chen,Fengyu Hu,Qing Zhang,Mingqiu Zhong,Yanrong Wu,Lingzhai Zhao,Fuchun Zhang,Benjamin J. Cowling,Fang Li,Gabriel M. Leung +22 more
TL;DR: It is estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home.
Journal ArticleDOI
Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.
Merryn Voysey,Clemens Sac.,Shabir A. Madhi,Lily Yin Weckx,P M Folegatti,Parvinder K. Aley,Brian Angus,Vicky L. Baillie,Shaun Barnabas,Q E Bhorat,S Bibi,Carmen Briner,P Cicconi,Andrea M. Collins,R Colin-Jones,Clare L. Cutland,Thomas C. Darton,Keertan Dheda,Duncan Cja.,Emary Krw.,Katie J. Ewer,Lee Fairlie,Saul N. Faust,Shuo Feng,Daniela M. Ferreira,Adam Finn,Anna Goodman,Catherine M. Green,Christopher A Green,Paul T. Heath,Christopher Hill,Helen Hill,Ian Hirsch,Hodgson Shc.,Allen Izu,S Jackson,D Jenkin,Joe Ccd.,S Kerridge,Anthonet Koen,Gaurav Kwatra,Rajeka Lazarus,Alison M. Lawrie,A Lelliott,Vincenzo Libri,Patrick J. Lillie,R Mallory,Mendes Ava.,Eveline Pipolo Milan,Angela M. Minassian,Alastair McGregor,Hazel Morrison,Y Mujadidi,Amit J Nana,P J O’Reilly,S D Padayachee,A Pittella,E Plested,Katrina M Pollock,M N Ramasamy,S Rhead,Alexandre Vargas Schwarzbold,Nisha Singh,Andrew Smith,R Song,Matthew D. Snape,Eduardo Sprinz,Rebecca K. Sutherland,R Tarrant,E. Thomson,M E Török,Mark Toshner,Turner Dpj.,Johan Vekemans,Tonya Villafana,Watson Mee.,C J Williams,Alexander D. Douglas,Hill Avs.,Teresa Lambe,Sarah C. Gilbert,Andrew J. Pollard +81 more
TL;DR: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials.
Journal ArticleDOI
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
TL;DR: It is estimated that 86% of all infections were undocumented before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions, which explains the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicates that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.