Testing, tracing and isolation in compartmental models.
Simone Sturniolo,William Waites,Tim Colbourn,David Manheim,Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths,Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths +5 more
TLDR
In this paper, the effects of testing, contact-tracing and isolation (TTI) strategies in standard compartmental models have been investigated for epidemics, using a probabilistic argument to show how contact tracing at the individual level is reflected in aggregate on the population level.Abstract:
Existing compartmental mathematical modelling methods for epidemics, such as SEIR models, cannot accurately represent effects of contact tracing. This makes them inappropriate for evaluating testing and contact tracing strategies to contain an outbreak. An alternative used in practice is the application of agent- or individual-based models (ABM). However ABMs are complex, less well-understood and much more computationally expensive. This paper presents a new method for accurately including the effects of Testing, contact-Tracing and Isolation (TTI) strategies in standard compartmental models. We derive our method using a careful probabilistic argument to show how contact tracing at the individual level is reflected in aggregate on the population level. We show that the resultant SEIR-TTI model accurately approximates the behaviour of a mechanistic agent-based model at far less computational cost. The computational efficiency is such that it can be easily and cheaply used for exploratory modelling to quantify the required levels of testing and tracing, alone and with other interventions, to assist adaptive planning for managing disease outbreaks.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions.
Cliff C. Kerr,Robyn M. Stuart,Robyn M. Stuart,Dina Mistry,Romesh G. Abeysuriya,Katherine Rosenfeld,Gregory R. Hart,Rafael C. Núñez,Jamie A. Cohen,Prashanth Selvaraj,Brittany Hagedorn,Lauren George,Michał Jastrzębski,Amanda S Izzo,Greer Fowler,Anna Palmer,Dominic Delport,Nick Scott,Sherrie L Kelly,Caroline S Bennette,Bradley G. Wagner,Stewart T. Chang,Assaf P. Oron,Edward A. Wenger,Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths,Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths,Michael Famulare,Daniel J. Klein +27 more
TL;DR: Covasim as discussed by the authors is an agent-based simulation model developed to examine epidemic dynamics and inform policy decisions in more than a dozen countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America.
Posted ContentDOI
Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic control without lockdowns.
Sebastian Contreras,Sebastian Contreras,Jonas Dehning,Sebastian B. Mohr,Simon Bauer,F. Paul Spitzner,Viola Priesemann,Viola Priesemann +7 more
TL;DR: This work analytically derives the existence of a third, viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where test-trace-and-isolate policies partially compensate for local spreading events, and only moderate contact restrictions remain necessary, and minimises lockdown duration and hence economic impact.
Journal ArticleDOI
Digital Contact Tracing Applications during COVID-19: A Scoping Review about Public Acceptance
TL;DR: The current knowledge about public acceptance of CTAs is described and individual perspectives, which are essential to consider concerning CTA acceptance and adoption are identified.
Journal ArticleDOI
Aptamer-Functionalized Nanochannels for One-Step Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Samples from COVID-19 Patients
Liu Shi,Lin Wang,Xuemei Ma,Xiaona Fang,Xiaona Fang,Liangliang Xiang,Yongxiang Yi,Jinlong Li,Zhaofeng Luo,Zhaofeng Luo,Genxi Li,Genxi Li +11 more
TL;DR: In this article, an aptamer-based method for the assay of SARS-CoV-2 via binding of the spike protein using functionalized biomimetic nanochannels was proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Determining the level of social distancing necessary to avoid future COVID-19 epidemic waves: a modelling study for North East London.
Nathan J. Cheetham,William Waites,Irene Ebyarimpa,Werner Leber,Katie Brennan,Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths,Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used mathematical modelling to simulate the levels of COVID-19 in North East London (NEL) and inform the level of social distancing necessary to protect the public and the healthcare demand from future epidemic waves.
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