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Open AccessJournal ArticleDOI

The future of risk assessment

TLDR
This paper swings on the rapid changes and innovations that the World that the authors live in is experiencing, and analyze them with respect to the challenges that these pose to the field of risk assessment.
About
This article is published in Reliability Engineering & System Safety.The article was published on 2018-09-01 and is currently open access. It has received 198 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Hazard & Business continuity.

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Citations
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Cyber-Physical Energy Systems Security: Threat Modeling, Risk Assessment, Resources, Metrics, and Case Studies

TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a comprehensive overview of the cyber-physical energy systems (CPS) security landscape with an emphasis on CPES, and demonstrate a threat modeling methodology to accurately represent the CPS elements, their interdependencies, as well as the possible attack entry points and system vulnerabilities.
Journal ArticleDOI

Towards supervisory risk control of autonomous ships

TL;DR: The framework presented in the paper is the first step towards supervisory risk control, i.e., developing control systems for autonomous systems with risk management capabilities to improve the decision-making and intelligence of such systems.
Journal ArticleDOI

A resilience perspective on water transport systems: The case of Eastern Star

TL;DR: In this article, a resilience-modulated risk model for integration in the practice of water transport is proposed, and a comparative study is performed to find how the different methods can help to improve safety in unexpected or unknown disruptions of the water transport system steering towards the concept of resilience as more pertinent from the perspective of safety engineering.
Journal ArticleDOI

The Call for a Shift from Risk to Resilience: What Does it Mean?

Terje Aven
- 10 Dec 2018 - 
TL;DR: The article argues that the only meaningful interpretation of the call for a shift from risk to resilience is the latter, and risk analysis in a broad sense is needed to increase relevant knowledge, develop adequate policies, and make the right decisions.
Journal ArticleDOI

Complexity on the rails: A systems-based approach to understanding safety management in rail transport

TL;DR: Insights identified for improving safety management included a need to improve feedback mechanisms to better understand the effectiveness of control measures; a lack of formal controls at higher levels of the system; and a focus within current feedback mechanisms on failures rather than understanding and learning from normal performance.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems

TL;DR: The traditional view of natural systems, therefore, might well be less a meaningful reality than a perceptual convenience.
Book

Monte Carlo Statistical Methods

TL;DR: This new edition contains five completely new chapters covering new developments and has sold 4300 copies worldwide of the first edition (1999).
Journal ArticleDOI

The design and analysis of computer experiments

TL;DR: This paper presents a meta-modelling framework for estimating Output from Computer Experiments-Predicting Output from Training Data and Criteria Based Designs for computer Experiments.
Book

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

TL;DR: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable as mentioned in this paper is a book about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters, that are impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.
Frequently Asked Questions (15)
Q1. What are the main reasons for the failures of a safety barrier?

In practice, accident initiating events and safety barriers failures usually occur as a result of degradation mechanisms, e.g., wear [218], corrosion [217], fatigue [83], crack growth [28], oxidation [52], etc. 

To the benefit of safe operation, the integration of computational resources into physical processes is aimed at adding new capabilities to stand-alone physical systems, to enable functionalities of real-time monitoring, dynamic control and decision support during normal operation as well as in case of accidents. 

The common framework used to describe the uncertainties in the assessment stands on probability theory, and particularly on the subjectivistic (Bayesian) theory of probability, as the adequate framework within which expert opinions can be combined with statistical data to provide quantitative measures of risk [91,92]. 

The changes and innovations that the World is experiencing, with digitalization and the complexity of cyber-phyiscal systems (CPSs), climate change and extreme natural events, terrorist and malevolent threats, challenge the existing methods to describe and model quantitatively risk. 

Resilience of CPS to failures can be granted by self-adaptiveness of control decisions on actuators, resorting to intelligent control systems that properly manipulate sensors measurements [116]. 

During operation, failures of embedded hardware components (e.g., sensors and actuators) can be induced by aging, degradation, and process and operational conditions, which modify the way components work and interact with each other, generating multiple failure modes [195]. 

TIn this fast-pace changing environment, the attributes related to the reliability of components and systems continue to play a fundamental role for industry and those of safety and security are of increasing concern, as a right to freedom. 

Emergency measures, e.g., the intervention of a fire brigade, are needed when the mitigation measures fail to stop the propagation of the accident [199]. 

Quality review of a risk assessment is essential, as opposition to a particular decision often takes the form of raising questions to the validity of the risk assessment [11]. 

The quantitative analysis is often criticized in view of the difficulty of assigning probabilities (e.g., to human errors or software failures), the difficulty of verifying the assumptions behind the models at the basis of the assessment, the inherent uncertainty involved in the phenomena of interest. 

The challenge is in the management of the variety of risk information that can be utilized to the scope, including that coming from outside the local environment, e.g. across the industry. 

For more than 35 years, the probabilistic analysis has provided the basis for the quantification of risk (see reviews by Rechard [161,162]), with its first application to large technological systems (specifically nuclear power plants) dating back to the early 1970s [138]. 

Two main strategies are currently followed to address the two research questions and related challenges above presented:• Simulation of large sets of system life histories using the increased computational power made available through parallel computing, cloud computing etc. • Simulation by adaptive sampling, which amounts to intelligently guiding the simulation towards the system states of interest (i.e., those belonging to the CRs). 

Although computational power is continuously increasing, in many practical instances computational cost still remains an issue for simulation-based risk assessment, because in such cases the high computational cost for the simulation of even a single system life history prevents the analyst from running and exploring the large number of input configurations for mining knowledge to characterize the system CRs. 

this expanded capability and flexibility, and the dynamic nature of the model-based design environment, also pose challenges to the execution of traditional design validation and verification (V&V) processes.