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The statistical significance of randomized controlled trial results is frequently fragile: A case for a Fragility Index

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TLDR
The statistically significant results of many RCTs hinge on small numbers of events, and the Fragility Index complements the P-value and helps identify less robust results.
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This article is published in Journal of Clinical Epidemiology.The article was published on 2014-06-01 and is currently open access. It has received 454 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Randomized controlled trial & Fragility.

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Homocysteine‐lowering interventions for preventing cardiovascular events

TL;DR: Whether homocysteine-lowering interventions, provided to patients with and without pre-existing cardiovascular disease are effective in preventing cardiovascular events, as well as reducing all-cause mortality, and to evaluate their safety is evaluated.
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Strategies to improve retention in randomised trials.

TL;DR: The effect of strategies to improve retention on the proportion of participants retained in randomised trials and to investigate if the effect varied by trial strategy and trial setting were quantified.
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The Fragility Index in Multicenter Randomized Controlled Critical Care Trials.

TL;DR: In critical care trials reporting statistically significant effects on mortality, the findings often depend on a small number of events, so critical care clinicians should be wary of basing decisions on trials with a low fragility index.
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Accelerated surgery versus standard care in hip fracture (HIP ATTACK): an international, randomised, controlled trial

Flávia Kessler Borges, +504 more
- 29 Feb 2020 - 
TL;DR: Among patients with a hip fracture, accelerated surgery did not significantly lower the risk of mortality or a composite of major complications compared with standard care.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

On the psychology of prediction

TL;DR: In this article, the authors explore the rules that determine intuitive predictions and judgments of confidence and contrast these rules to the normative principles of statistical prediction and show that people do not appear to follow the calculus of chance or the statistical theory of prediction.
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Beta blockade during and after myocardial infarction: an overview of the randomized trials

TL;DR: The aim has been not only to review the 65-odd randomized beta blocker trials but also to demonstrate that when many randomized trials have all applied one general approach to treatment, it is often not appropriate to base inference on individual trial results.
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Sifting the evidence—what's wrong with significance tests?

TL;DR: The high volume and often contradictory nature5 of medical research findings, however, is not only because of publication bias, but also because of the widespread misunderstanding of the nature of statistical significance.
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Contradicted and Initially Stronger Effects in Highly Cited Clinical Research

TL;DR: Contradiction and initially stronger effects are not unusual in highly cited research of clinical interventions and their outcomes, but the extent to which high citations may provoke contradictions and vice versa needs more study.
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