Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 2008"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a new approach to the study of the future in an increasingly complex and heterogeneous world, which can help people to recover their agency, and help them to create the world in which they wish to live.
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to the study of the future.Design/methodology/approach – The paper describes six foundational concepts (the used future, the disowned future, alternative futures, alignment, models of social change, and uses of the future), six questions (will, fear, missing, alternatives, wish, and next steps as related to the future) and six pillars (mapping, anticipating, timing, deepening, creating alternatives, and transforming), giving examples and case studies where appropriate.Findings – In an increasingly complex and heterogeneous world, futures studies can help people to recover their agency, and help them to create the world in which they wish to live.Originality/value – The paper integrates and builds on a variety of futures studies' concepts, ways of thinking and techniques and integrates them into a new approach.
395 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: I. Miles, J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, M.Keenan and I.Miles as mentioned in this paper, and R. Popper 2008; The Many Faces of Foresight Chapter 1, pp3-23; I.m.
Abstract: Chapters contributed are:
I. Miles, J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan and R. Popper 2008; The Many Faces of Foresight Chapter 1, pp3-23; I. Miles 2008, From Futures to Foresight, Chapter 2 pp24-43; M.Keenan and I. Miles 2008, Foresight in the UK Chapter 4 pp91-111; M.Keenan and I. Miles 2008, Scoping and Planning Foresight, Chapter 15 pp342-375; I. Miles, J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan and R. Popper 2008, New Frontiers: Emerging Foresight, Chapter 17 pp400-418
274 citations
01 Jan 2008
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present six roadmaps of the anticipated developments of social media in three themes: society, companies, and local environment, and crystallize the results of the report into five main development lines triggered by social media.
Abstract: Social media refers to a combination of three elements: content, user communities and Web 2.0 technologies. This foresight report presents six roadmaps of the anticipated developments of social media in three themes: society, companies, and local environment. One of the roadmaps, the meta-roadmap, is the synthesis of them all. The society sub-roadmap explores societal participation through communities. There are three sub-roadmaps relating to companies: interacting with companies through communities, social media in work environment, and social media enhanced shopping. The local environment sub-roadmap looks at social media in local environment. The roadmapping process was carried out through two workshops at VTT. The results of the report are crystallized into five main development lines triggered by social media. First development line is transparency referring to its increasing role in society, both with positive and negative consequences. The second development line is the rise of ubiquitous participatory communication model. This refers to an increase of two-directional and community-based interactivity in every field, where it has some added value. The third development is reflexive empowerment. This refers to the role of social media as an enabler of grass-root community collaboration. The fourth development line is the duality personalization/fragmentation vs. mass effects/integration. Personalization /fragmentation emphasises the tailoring of the web services and content. This development is counterweighted by mass effects/integration, like the formation of super-nodes in the web. The fifth development line is the new relations of physical and virtual worlds. This development line highlights the idea that practices induced by social media, e.g. communication, participation, co-creation, feedback and rating, will get more common in daily environment, and that virtual and physical worlds will be more and more interlinked.
214 citations
TL;DR: Recent insights from the ongoing FORLEARN project, which aims to develop Foresight theory and practise by supporting the sharing of experience (‘mutual learning’) in Europe, are presented.
Abstract: The paper presents recent insights from the ongoing FORLEARN project, which aims to develop Foresight theory and practise by supporting the sharing of experience (‘mutual learning’) in Europe. Six functions of Foresight for policy-making are elaborated on: (1) Informing policy: generating insights regarding the dynamics of change, future challenges and options, along with new ideas, and transmitting them to policymakers as an input to policy conceptualisation and design. (2) Facilitating policy implementation: enhancing the capacity for change within a given policy field by building a common awareness of the current situation and future challenges, as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders. (3) Embedding participation in policy-making: facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy-making process, thereby improving its transparency and legitimacy. (4) Supporting policy definition: jointly translating outcomes from the collective process into specific options for policy...
147 citations
TL;DR: The sociology of the future is an emerging field of inquiry that works to understand future consciousness drawing from a mix of Science & Technology Studies and the practice of foresight as mentioned in this paper, and suggests some ways the field is taking definition.
Abstract: The sociology of the future is an emerging field of inquiry that works to understand future consciousness drawing from a mix of Science & Technology Studies and the practice of foresight. Through an exploration of the theories, methodologies, and quagmires of anticipation employed in the study of nanotechnology, this piece introduces the sociology of the future and suggests some ways the field is taking definition. Exploring the future tense provides a means of taking responsibility for what is to come; yet, the movement of the social sciences into the tricky terrain of the future presents tensions. Understanding plausibility, how different communities use anticipatory knowledge, and the performative role of expectations in innovation remain areas of research rich with dilemmas and delights. As social scientists begin to weave their own accounts of futures, they should pay attention to the politics of such rendering. Extension of the technological reach Scholarly attention to the development of new technologies and to exploring the sociologic tools and methods we have for grasping their emergence is exceedingly important not only for the dual nature of technology as blessing and curse, but also because our technological reach into the future is growing. Our ability to produce technologies that have a lasting impact on social systems seems to be growing given the biological, chemical, and material technologies of late. Nanotechnology is one such novel technology area that is regularly promised to radically alter what it means to be human, our systems of production, and our environmental landscapes. Whether expectations of seamless interactions with nature, non-polluting instantaneous production, or unprecedented wealth and health, nanotechnology is presented by promoters as the elixir for post-industrial ills (Drexler 1986; Roco and Brainbridge 2001; Wood et al. 2003). Yet, this brazen optimism is also balanced by visions of self-replicating nanobots out of control and more tempered analyses about nanotechnology’s ability to
137 citations
TL;DR: Adaptive Foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning as discussed by the authors, and it is the careful combining of commitment and opportunism that best enables actors to pursue their superordinate values and objectives.
136 citations
01 Jan 2008
TL;DR: Rip and Te Kulve as mentioned in this paper used socio-technical scenarios in the study of nanotechnology, and proposed two scenario construction frameworks that take into account complex and often overlooked socio technical dynamics CTA scenarios can accordingly serve as "useful fictions" for strategic purposes as well as for modulating ongoing socio technical change.
Abstract: PREFACE: Since the 1980’s, Rip has been instrumental in developing and applying an approach to broaden the scope of participants and considerations that go into technological developments that is known as Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) A number of organizations have employed CTA, including the Rathenau Institute (formerly, the Netherlands Office of Technology Assessment) Since 2005, the Dutch national nanotechnology consortium, NanoNed, has under Rip’s coordination included CTA as a program component In this chapter, Rip and Te Kulve suggest that because many nanotechnology applications remain little more than promises, studying their implications amounts to an exercise in “social science fiction” To address this challenge, they employ socio-technical scenarios Scenarios are a well-established foresight method that are gaining wide use in the study of nanotechnology (Turk, Chapter 8; Kosal, Chapter 12) Here, Rip and Te Kulve, are interested in linking theory and practice and thus describe two scenario construction frameworks that take into account complex and often overlooked socio-technical dynamics CTA scenarios can accordingly serve as “useful fictions” for strategic purposes as well as for modulating ongoing socio-technical change
121 citations
TL;DR: The IAASTD brought together about 100 participants from governments, the private sector, non‐governmental organizations, farmer and other producer groups, consumers, scientists and international organizations to develop a common understanding and vision for the future.
Abstract: At the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development held in South Africa, the World Bank (Washington, DC, USA) and the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, Rome, Italy) announced that they would organize a global consultation process on agricultural science and technology (IAASTD, 2003). They showed remarkable foresight: when the International Assessment of Agriculture, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) final reports were approved in April 2008, they were released to media and governments already disturbed about biofuels, increasing food prices, food protests in developing countries, and a general concern about producing enough food to feed the world (IAASTD, 2008).
In a relatively short time, agriculture has once again become the focus of politicians, consumers, scientists and environmentalists. Indeed, the main question that the IAASTD set out to answer, with some foresight, was: “How can we reduce hunger and poverty, improve rural livelihoods, and facilitate equitable, environmentally, socially and economically sustainable development through the generation, access to, and use of agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST)?” Now, as the report is published, such topics are not only matters of academic interest, but also issues of increasing economic, political and even strategic importance.
With an intergovernmental governance structure, the IAASTD is agriculture's equivalent to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with no less a difficult task. At its first meeting as a global consultative process in Ireland in November 2002, the IAASTD brought together about 100 participants from governments, the private sector, non‐governmental organizations, farmer and other producer groups, consumers, scientists and international organizations. The goal was to share ideas and views about agriculture and develop a common understanding and vision for the future (IAASTD, 2005).
The report sets the scene in which the IAASTD met: “Today there is a world of asymmetric development, unsustainable natural resource …
109 citations
Book•
14 Jul 2008
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a look into the future of television and discuss the challenges of the future and the possibilities and limits of future vision. But they do not consider the future in the context of strategy development.
Abstract: Introduction. Chapter 1. Venturing a Look into the Future. Moving from the past into the future via the present. 1.1. Reflections on the Future. 1.2. Changes in Our Environment. 1.3. Enterprise Development. 1.4. Present and Future Challenges. 1.5. Enterprise Intelligence Test. Chapter 2. Detection. Detecting and Recording Changes in the Enterprise Environment. 2.1. A Plea for Foresight and Prior Action. 2.2. The Enterprise Environment. 2.3. Information as a Basis for Decision Making. 2.4. How We Can Learn to Understand our Environment. 2.5. The Future of Television (I). Chapter 3. Reflection. Sorting and Structuring Information. 3.1. Changes in the Environment. 3.2. Stability - Paradigms and Assumptions. 3.3. Changes - Trends. 3.4. Uncertainty. 3.5. Contradictions. 3.6. Indeterminate Elements - Chaos and Wildcards. 3.7. From Hypothesis to Future Element. 3.8. The Future of Television (II). Chapter 4. Understanding. Anticipating the Future. 4.1. Memories of the Future. 4.2. The Possibilities and Limits of Foresight. 4.3. Origins and Development of Foresight. 4.4. Pictures of the Future. 4.5. Demarcation and Focus. 4.6. Selecting Future Elements. 4.7. The Actual "Look" into the Future. 4.8. Development of Scenario Frameworks and Scenarios. 4.9. Creating Pictures of the Future. 4.10. Evaluation of Scenarios. 4.11. Pictures of the Future. 4.12. The Future of Television (III). 4.13. Lessons Learned. Chapter 5. Planning. Seizing Opportunities and Avoiding Hazards. 5.1. Planning for the Future: An Insurance Policy. 5.2. Strategy Review. 5.3. Developing Strategies in Turbulent Environments. 5.4. Enterprise Analysis. 5.5. Strategy Synthesis. 5.6. Strategic Decisions. 5.7. Examining the Future in the Context of Strategy Development. 5.8. The Future of Television (IV). Chapter 6. Implementation. Managing Change. 6.1. The Dimensions of Change. 6.2. The Logic of Change. 6.3. The Reality of Change in Enterprises. 6.4. Elements of Change. 6.5. Orientation in the Process of Change. 6.6. Including the Results of Analysis. 6.7. Reflection, reflection, reflection... 6.8. The Future of Television (V). Chapter 7. Learning. Applications and Examples. 7.1. Dealing with Uncertainty in Practice. 7.2. The Future of Petroleum - Introduction. 7.3. The Future of Petroleum - An Information Base. 7.4. Compression and Operation. 7.5. Generating Environment Scenarios. 7.6. Generating Enterprise Scenarios. 7.7. Strategic Implications. 7.8. Example Summary. Chapter 8. Homework. What You Should Do. Chapter 9. Appendix I. 100 Sources of Information. Chapter 10. Appendix II. Short Profiles of Selected Methods. 10.1. Macro Environment Analysis. 10.2. Micro Environment Analysis. 10.3. Enterprise Analysis. 10.4. Foresight. 10.5. Strategic Analysis. 10.6. Change Management. References. Index.
86 citations
TL;DR: The Delphi study as mentioned in this paper suggests that futures studies will become more important in German corporations and suggests that the improvement of methods like environmental scanning, trend research, trend monitoring, strategic early warning and the scenario technique are suggested.
83 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a conceptual framework that allows assessing and reflecting expectations in foresight initiatives that focus on sustainable sector transformations is proposed, based on the recent literature on socio-technical system transformations and social expectation dynamics.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the field of the social study of technology (SST) can inspire research in economic geography in important respects: SST research has an explicit focus on the genesis of sociotechnical configurations; it has developed sector-related and technology-related multilevel theories of sociotchnical change; and finally, it has a focus on strategic planning in multiactor settings and thus favors foresight and participatory planning approaches in science, technology and innovation policy.
Abstract: Recent debates in economic geography have emphasized the need for a more explicit analysis of innovation processes at a sectoral or technological level. A great deal of attention has furthermore been devoted to connect the internal disciplinary debate with the wider discourse of the social sciences that deal with economic development in general and with the role of innovation in particular. In the present paper I argue that the field of the social study of technology (SST) can inspire research in economic geography in important respects: SST research has an explicit focus on the genesis of sociotechnical configurations; it has developed sector-related and technology-related multilevel theories of sociotechnical change; it has a strong emphasis on innovation dynamics and sector transformations; and finally, it has a focus on strategic planning in multiactor settings and thus favors foresight and participatory planning approaches in science, technology, and innovation policy. SST-inspired research could thu...
TL;DR: Integral futures (IF) has developed over several years to a point where it has emerged as a productive way of understanding futures studies (FS) itself and re-evaluating its role in the wider world as mentioned in this paper.
TL;DR: In this paper, an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises that assesses the degree to which they promote the development of a more participatory knowledge society is presented, based primarily on research carried out during the preparation of a PhD thesis entitled “Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more Participatory Knowledge Society”.
TL;DR: The authors sketches the broad outlines of the philosophical and methodological foundations of an emerging approach to inquiry called integral inquiry and how this form of inquiry may be applied to futures studies, leading to an approach which has come to be called integral futures.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors established what foresight is, reviewed past usages and definitions of foresight and synthesized them into one generic definition, in order to make the con...
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to establish what foresight is, to review past usages anddefinitions of foresight and to synthesize them into one generic definition, in order to make the con ...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present Foresight exercises in the metal working and machinery district of Lecco and in the silk district of Como, where the goal is to drive the small entrepreneurs, the district stakeholders and the medium and large size firms to play the critical roles of Nonaka and Takeuchi's "frontline employees" in their knowledge creating company.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a framework for modeling the trajectories between "now" and "then" through the terra incognita between current global realities and alternative futures.
TL;DR: In this paper, the use of systems methodology in futures studies and foresight, in relation to Slaughter's call for Integral methodological renewal in future studies, is examined for their potential to address concerns about the reduction of interior realities to epiphenomena of systemic processes, articulated by Habermas in the 1970s, and more recently by Wilber from the perspective of his Integral Methodological Pluralism.
Book•
01 Jan 2008
TL;DR: The ‘Technology Foresight towards 2020’ exercise in China is introduced and the methodology including scenario building for identifying technology demands and the method for processing and analysing the data from a Delphi survey is explained.
Abstract: Technology foresight has attracted increasing attention from government and academia as well as industry since the 1990s. However, the impact of technology foresight on national strategic decision-making varies from country to country. This paper aims to introduce the ‘Technology Foresight towards 2020’ exercise in China, which has been conducted by a research group in the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper consists of five parts: (1) introduction; (2) the framework for technology foresight towards 2020 in China; (3) the methodology including scenario building for identifying technology demands and the method for processing and analysing the data from a Delphi survey; (4) the major results of a Delphi survey in the following four research fields: Information technology, Biotechnology, Energy technology, Material science and technology; and (5) the impact of the research on decision-making concerning science and technology development in China.
01 Jan 2008
TL;DR: In this article, the authors set out some of the problems faced by practising teachers in relation to the academic field of futures studies and then clarified the educational rationale for developing a "futures perspective" in the school curriculum.
Abstract: In this chapter I firstly set out some of the problems faced by practising teachers in relation to the academic field of futures studies and then clarify the educational rationale for developing a ‘futures perspective’ in the school curriculum. Whilst schools have a crucial role to play in helping young people think about the future what is actually possible and appropriate is dependent on children’s ages. I outline some of what is currently known about children and young people’s perceptions of the future and then give an example of how teachers and students who intend to be teachers can be introduced to these concerns. Finally I indicate some of the areas of futures education that require further research.
TL;DR: The Macro Trends team at Deutsche Bank Research has developed a ‘trend map’ which provides a conceptual aggregation of trends – to provide orientation for decision-makers and stakeholders.
Abstract: Achieving an impact on business decision-makers with foresight does not appear to be an easy task. Therefore, the Macro Trends team at Deutsche Bank Research has formulated some criteria to guide foresight projects. They should aim to produce plausibility, provide convenience and inspiration as well as an appropriate time perspective with regard to the content of foresight results. In addition, a structured way of producing and delivering foresight, a seamless inclusion in organisational procedures, a high level of interaction with decision-makers, ideational entrepreneurship, innovation regarding communication with business people, and persistence and synchronisation with the business organisation are the key criteria for achieving a higher impact from foresight projects. To live up to these criteria, the Macro Trends team has developed a ‘trend map’ which provides a conceptual aggregation of trends – to provide orientation for decision-makers and stakeholders.
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, a review of past studies as well as evidence from case studies in 15 companies in which 84 interviews have been conducted is presented, and a framework is proposed that allows the comparison of strategic foresight practices within 5 dimensions and 19 key characteristics.
Abstract: In many industries, companies are faced with disruptions from emerging technologies, from the political and legislative environment, from alternative business models or from socio-cultural shifts. Research on strategic foresight (SF) has been aimed at investigating how companies achieve to identify, anticipate and manage disruptions and prepare for an uncertain future. The research is based on the observation that strategic management in large companies is characterized by certain ignorance towards any changes occurring outside their current business area, and that to maintain a competitive position over time continuous scanning, interpreting and reaction to such changes need to be established. Many studies have been able to show that establishing an SF system is judged as crucial by corporate management, but that paradoxically the implementation of successful practices remains limited. This can be attributed to the limited knowledge about best practices as well as the lack of professional associations dedicated to advancing management practices in the field of SF. This study builds on a review of past studies as well as evidence from case studies in 15 companies in which 84 interviews have been conducted. As a result a framework is proposed that allows the comparison of SF practices within 5 dimensions and 19 key characteristics.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose a framework to understand the nature, objective and purpose of future studies (and scenario planning) projects, which helps to overcome confusion on knowledge aggregation and methodology, which can be summarised in the question: "how to determine the purpose of such projects".
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors report on how foresight methods are being used to address a "wicked problem" for the global furniture industry: what are we going to do in the furniture industry in high cost countries (HCC) to maintain our future competitiveness with respect to the competition coming from low cost countries?
Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report on how foresight methods are being used to address a “wicked problem” for the global furniture industry: “What are we going to do in the furniture industry in high cost countries (HCC) to maintain our future competitiveness with respect to the competition coming from low cost countries?”Design/methodology/approach – This study explores one sectorial initiative, CEFFOR® (Furniture Foresight Centre, headquarters in Valencia, Spain), that attempts to mitigate the negative impact of globalisation on the competitiveness of the furniture industry in HCCs, by creating a vision of a preferable future through the use of a set of qualitative foresight tools (structural analysis, morphological analysis/field anomaly relaxation, and cross impact analysis) involving a worldwide expert panel.Findings – This paper examines the set‐up phase of the CEFFOR initiative, and describes the main elements of the morphological space developed to profile possible future configuratio...
TL;DR: This paper investigates the possibility of Foresight to support policy makers in influencing innovation trajectories according to societal needs and discusses some relevant insights on the character of technologies, as well as their social implications, that are problematised and opened up for enquiry in SST.
Abstract: This paper aims at contributing to theoretical aspects of Foresight from the perspective of the interdisciplinary body of knowledge that has become known as STS - Science and Technology Studies (c.f. Jasanoff 1994). Drawing in particular on STS insights on the Social Shaping of Technology (SST) we would like to investigate the possibility of Foresight to support policy makers in influencing innovation trajectories according to societal needs. In this paper, we highlight four different modes of policy support Foresight is expected to deliver: Foresight as systemic innovation policy instrument fostering innovation capability, Foresight orienting innovation towards societal needs, Foresight as agenda setting process and Foresight a provider of anticipatory intelligence as a base for decision making. From these starting points, we turn to Social Shaping of Technology. Central to SST is the idea that technology co-evolves in a complex interaction with society which is reflected in both the design of individual artefacts and systems, and in the direction or trajectory of innovation programmes. Different routes are available, potentially leading to different technological outcomes. This paper discusses some relevant insights on the character of technologies, as well as their social implications, that are problematised and opened up for enquiry in SST; contingency and constraint of variation, role of expectations and visions, importance of downstream phase of innovation, importance of localisation and insights on steering possibilities for technological trajectories These insights allow us to elaborate one the concepts of Foresight as a process moderator, Foresight as expectation management, provision of anticipatory intelligence and localisation through Foresight.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors demonstrate how to use a scenario planning futures approach in a changing, complex and uncertain workplace environment, as well as provoke thought and discussion about its long-term future.
Abstract: Purpose – The changes now being experienced in the workplace, driven by market pressures, changing demographics and new technologies, are real and accelerating. Since change remains the one constant when it comes to workplace planning, further transformations within the workplace over the next 20 or 30 years can be expected. Hence, this paper aims to demonstrate how to use a scenario planning futures approach in a changing, complex and uncertain workplace environment. As well as provoke thought and discussion about its long‐term future.Design/methodology/approach – At the Futures Academy in Dublin Institute of Technology, a systematic methodology for exploring and shaping the future has been developed, called the “Prospective through scenario” process. Each stage of the process is discussed in detail throughout this paper, as well as how the process is applied in the Johnson Controls workplace of the future study.Findings – The creative “futures studies” approach can deal effectively with change, uncertai...