Showing papers by "Scott J. Goetz published in 2011"

Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impacts and research priorities

Abstract: Recent research using repeat photography, long-term ecological monitoring and dendrochronology has documented shrub expansion in arctic, high-latitude and alpine tundra

Satellite observations of high northern latitude vegetation productivity changes between 1982 and 2008: ecological variability and regional differences

Abstract: To assess ongoing changes in high latitude vegetation productivity we compared spatiotemporal patterns in remotely sensed vegetation productivity in the tundra and boreal zones of North America and Eurasia. We compared the long-term GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) to the more recent and advanced MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) NDVI data set, and mapped circumpolar trends in a gross productivity metric derived from the former. We then analyzed how temporal changes in productivity differed along an evergreen–deciduous gradient in boreal Alaska, along a shrub cover gradient in Arctic Alaska, and during succession after fire in boreal North America and northern Eurasia. We find that the earlier reported contrast between trends of increasing tundra and decreasing boreal forest productivity has amplified in recent years, particularly in North America. Decreases in boreal forest productivity are most prominent in areas of denser tree cover and, particularly in Alaska, evergreen forest stands. On the North Slope of Alaska, however, increases in tundra productivity do not appear restricted to areas of higher shrub cover, which suggests enhanced productivity across functional vegetation types. Differences in the recovery of post-disturbance vegetation productivity between North America and Eurasia are described using burn chronosequences, and the potential factors driving regional differences are discussed.

Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift

Abstract: Global vegetation models predict that boreal forests are particularly sensitive to a biome shift during the 21st century. This shift would manifest itself first at the biome!s margins, with evergreen forest expanding into current tundra while being replaced by grasslands or temperate forest at the biome!s southern edge. We evaluated changes in forest productivity since 1982 across boreal Alaska by linking satellite estimates of primary productivity and a large tree-ring data set. Trends in both records show consistent growth increases at the boreal‐tundra ecotones that contrast with drought-induced productivity declines throughout interior Alaska. These patterns support the hypothesized effects of an initiating biome shift. Ultimately, tree dispersal rates, habitat availability and the rate of future climate change, and how it changes disturbance regimes, are expected to determine where the boreal biome will undergo a gradual geographic range shift, and where a more rapid decline.

Advances in remote sensing technology and implications for measuring and monitoring forest carbon stocks and change

Abstract: Forest monitoring using satellite imagery has advanced tremendously over the past few decades, to the point that these datasets now inform international policy agreements, notably those associated with emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere from deforestation and other types of land-use change. However, satellite technological advances require time to move towards a state of operational readiness for monitoring and reporting; for example, in the case of forest cover and associated carbon stock (biomass) and their changes through time. In this article, we provide an overview of the current status of forest monitoring using satellites and we explore new technologies that are already revolutionizing the way that forest carbon is measured. In particular, we focus on the capabilities of light detection and ranging (LiDAR), noting the opportunities and also the challenges that arise in moving technologies from those flown on aircraft to earth orbiting satellites. We discuss these capabilities in the context of ne...

The impacts and implications of an intensifying fire regime on Alaskan boreal forest composition and albedo

Abstract: Climate warming and drying are modifying the fire dynamics of many boreal forests, moving them towards a regime with a higher frequency of extreme fire years characterized by large burns of high severity. Plot-scale studies indicate that increased burn severity favors the recruitment of deciduous trees in the initial years following fire. Consequently, a set of biophysical effects of burn severity on postfire boreal successional trajectories at decadal timescales have been hypothesized. Prominent among these are a greater cover of deciduous tree species in intermediately aged stands after more severe burning, with associated implications for carbon and energy balances. Here we investigate whether the current vegetation composition of interior Alaska supports this hypothesis. A chronosequence of six decades of vegetation regrowth following fire was created using a database of burn scars, an existing forest biomass map, and maps of albedo and the deciduous fraction of vegetation that we derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery. The deciduous fraction map depicted the proportion of aboveground biomass in deciduous vegetation, derived using a RandomForest algorithm trained with field data sets (n 569, 71% variance explained). Analysis of the difference Normalized Burn Ratio, a remotely sensed index commonly used as an indicator of burn severity, indicated that burn size and ignition date can provide a proxy of burn severity for historical fires. LIDAR remote sensing and a bioclimatic model of evergreen forest distribution were used to further refine the stratification of the current landscape by burn severity. Our results show that since the 1950s, more severely burned areas in interior Alaska have produced a vegetation cohort that is characterized by greater deciduous biomass. We discuss the importance of this shift in vegetation composition due to climate-induced changes in fire severity for carbon sequestration in forest biomass and surface reflectance (albedo), among other feedbacks to climate.

Model comparisons for estimating carbon emissions from North American wildland fire

Abstract: Research activities focused on estimating the direct emissions of carbon from wildland fires across North America are reviewed as part of the North American Carbon Program disturbance synthesis. A comparison of methods to estimate the loss of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere from wildland fires is presented. Published studies on emissions from recent and historic time periods and five specific cases are summarized, and new emissions estimates are made using contemporary methods for a set of specific fire events. Results from as many as six terrestrial models are compared. We find that methods generally produce similar results within each case, but estimates vary based on site location, vegetation (fuel) type, and fire weather. Area normalized emissions range from 0.23 kg C m−2 for shrubland sites in southern California/NW Mexico to as high as 6.0 kg C m−2 in northern conifer forests. Total emissions range from 0.23 to 1.6 Tg C for a set of 2003 fires in chaparral-dominated landscapes of California to 3.9 to 6.2 Tg C in the dense conifer forests of western Oregon. While the results from models do not always agree, variations can be attributed to differences in model assumptions and methods, including the treatment of canopy consumption and methods to account for changes in fuel moisture, one of the main drivers of variability in fire emissions. From our review and synthesis, we identify key uncertainties and areas of improvement for understanding the magnitude and spatial-temporal patterns of pyrogenic carbon emissions across North America.

High-latitude tree growth and satellite vegetation indices: Correlations and trends in Russia and Canada (1982–2008)

Abstract: [1] Vegetation in northern high latitudes affects regional and global climate through energy partitioning and carbon storage. Spaceborne observations of vegetation, largely based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggest decreased productivity during recent decades in many regions of the Eurasian and North American boreal forests. To improve interpretation of NDVI trends over forest regions, we examined the relationship between NDVI from the advanced very high resolution radiometers and tree ring width measurements, a proxy of tree productivity. We collected tree core samples from spruce, pine, and larch at 22 sites in northeast Russia and northwest Canada. Annual growth rings were measured and used to generate site‐level ring width index (RWI) chronologies. Correlation analysis was used to assess the association between RWI and summer NDVI from 1982 to 2008, while linear regression was used to examine trends in both measurements. The correlation between NDVI and RWI was highly variable across sites, though consistently positive (r = 0.43, SD = 0.19, n = 27). We observed significant temporal autocorrelation in both NDVI and RWI measurements at sites with evergreen conifers (spruce and pine), though weak autocorrelation at sites with deciduous conifers (larch). No sites exhibited a positive trend in both NDVI and RWI, although five sites showed negative trends in both measurements. While there are technological and physiological limitations to this approach, these findings demonstrate a positive association between NDVI and tree ring measurements, as well as the importance of considering lagged effects when modeling vegetation productivity using satellite data.

Tundra vegetation effects on pan-Arctic albedo

Abstract: Recent field experiments in tundra ecosystems describe how increased shrub cover reduces winter albedo, and how subsequent changes in surface net radiation lead to altered rates of snowmelt. These findings imply that tundra vegetation change will alter regional energy budgets, but to date the effects have not been documented at regional or greater scales. Using satellite observations and a pan-Arctic vegetation map, we examined the effects of shrub vegetation on albedo across the terrestrial Arctic. We included vegetation classes dominated by low shrubs, dwarf shrubs, tussock-dominated graminoid tundra, and non-tussock graminoid tundra. Each class was further stratified by bioclimate subzones. Low-shrub tundra had higher normalized difference vegetation index values and earlier albedo decline in spring than dwarf-shrub tundra, but for tussock tundra, spring albedo declined earlier than for low-shrub tundra. Our results illustrate how relatively small changes in vegetation properties result in differences in albedo dynamics, regardless of shrub growth, that may lead to differences in net radiation upwards of 50 W m − 2 at weekly time scales. Further, our findings imply that changes to the terrestrial Arctic energy budget during this important seasonal transition are under way regardless of whether recent satellite observed productivity trends are the result of shrub expansion. We conclude that a better understanding of changes in vegetation productivity and distribution in Arctic tundra is essential for accurately quantifying and predicting carbon and energy fluxes and associated climate feedbacks.

Delineating the Ecosystems Containing Protected Areas for Monitoring and Management

Abstract: Park managers realized more than 130 years ago that protected areas are often subsets of larger ecosystems and are vulnerable to change in the unprotected portions of the ecosystem. We illustrate the need to delineate protected area—centered ecosystems (PACEs) by using comprehensive scientific methods to map and analyze land-use change within PACEs around 13 US national park units. The resulting PACEs were on average 6.7 times larger than the parks in upper watersheds and 44.6 times larger than those in middle watersheds. The sizes of these PACEs clearly emphasized the long-term reliance of park biodiversity on surrounding landscapes. PACEs in the eastern United States were dominated by private lands with high rates of land development, suggesting that they offer the greatest challenge for management. Delineating PACEs more broadly will facilitate monitoring, condition assessment, and conservation of the large number of protected areas worldwide that are being degraded by human activities in the areas tha...

Varying boreal forest response to Arctic environmental change at the Firth River, Alaska

Abstract: The response of boreal forests to anthropogenic climate change remains uncertain, with potentially significant impacts for the global carbon cycle, albedo, canopy evapotranspiration and feedbacks into further climate change. Here, we focus on tree-ring data from the Firth River site at treeline in northeastern Alaska, in a tundra‐forest transition region where pronounced warming has already occurred. Both tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies were developed to identify the nature of tree growth and density responses to climatic and environmental changes in white spruce (Picea glauca), a dominant Arctic treeline species. Good agreement was found between the interannual fluctuations in the TRW chronology and summer temperatures from 1901 to 1950, whereas no significant relationships were found from 1951 to 2001, supporting evidence of significant divergence between TRW and summer temperature in the second half of the 20th century. In contrast to this unstable climatic response in the TRW record, the high frequency July‐August temperature signal in the MXD series seems reasonably stable through the 20th century. Wider and denser rings were more frequent during the 20th century, particularly after 1950, than in previous centuries. Finally, comparison between the tree-ring proxies and a satellite-derived vegetation index suggests that TRW and MXD correlate with vegetation productivity at the landscape level at different times of the growing season.

Shrub Cover on the North Slope of Alaska: a circa 2000 Baseline Map

Abstract: In situ observations show increases in shrub cover in different arctic regions in recent decades and have been cited to explain the increases in arctic vegetation productivity revealed by satellite remote sensing. A widespread increase in shrub cover, particularly tall shrub cover, is likely to profoundly alter the tundra biome because of its influence on biogeochemical cycling and feedbacks to climate. To monitor changes in shrub cover, aid field studies, and inform ecosystem models, we mapped shrub cover across the North Slope of Alaska. First, images from the IKONOS and SPOT satellite sensors were used to detect tall (>1 m) and short shrub presence at high resolution (<5 m grid cells) in different parts of the domain. The resulting maps were then used to train a Random Forest regression algorithm that mapped total and tall shrub cover, expressed as a percent of the total surface area, at 30 m resolution from a mosaic of Landsat scenes. The final shrub cover maps correspond well with field meas...

Scaling an Instantaneous Model of Tundra NEE to the Arctic Landscape

Abstract: We scale a model of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) for tundra ecosystems and assess model performance using eddy covariance measurements at three tundra sites. The model, initially developed using instantaneous (seconds–minutes) chamber flux (~m2) observations, independently represents ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary production (GPP), and requires only temperature (T), photosynthetic photon flux density (I 0), and leaf area index (L) as inputs. We used a synthetic data set to parameterize the model so that available in situ observations could be used to assess the model. The model was then scaled temporally to daily resolution and spatially to about 1 km2 resolution, and predicted values of NEE, and associated input variables, were compared to observations obtained from eddy covariance measurements at three flux tower sites over several growing seasons. We compared observations to modeled NEE calculated using T and I 0 measured at the towers, and L derived from MODIS data. Cumulative NEE estimates were within 17 and 11% of instrumentation period and growing season observations, respectively. Predictions improved when one site-year experiencing anomalously dry conditions was excluded, indicating the potential importance of stomatal control on GPP and/or soil moisture on ER. Notable differences in model performance resulted from ER model formulations and differences in how L was estimated. Additional work is needed to gain better predictive ability in terms of ER and L. However, our results demonstrate the potential of this model to permit landscape scale estimates of NEE using relatively few and simple driving variables that are easily obtained via satellite remote sensing.

Scoping Completed for an Experiment to Assess Vulnerability of Arctic and Boreal Ecosystems

Abstract: [1] Over the past 100 years, high northern latitude regions have experienced more rapid warming than elsewhere on Earth. This trend is expected to continue over the next century. Arctic tundra, boreal forests, and peatlands are already undergoing major changes, reinforced by the cascading effects of thawing permafrost, increasing disturbance (particularly fire and insect pests), and altered surface hydrology. These changes influence processes at the ecosystem and landscape scales, including energy balance and vegetation productivity, which feed back to regional and global climate in addition to affecting wildlife habitat and ecosystem resources available to local communities.

Reply to Comment on 'A first map of tropical Africa's above-ground biomass derived from satellite imagery'

Abstract: Biomass mapping using satellite imagery is a rapidly evolving field that has been greatly facilitated in recent years by the advent of LiDAR remote sensing coupled with co-located field measurements. The biomass map of Africa that we published in 2008 did not take direct advantage of coincident field and LiDAR measurements, as our more recent efforts have. The criticisms of our earlier map by Mitchard et al (2011 Environ. Res. Lett. 6 049001) are duly noted and worthwhile, although they are also limited in several respects that we describe. Most notably, they assess our map with field data sets that are only representative of a subset of conditions across the study domain, thus they not only inadequately characterize undisturbed tropical forest regions but also the diverse disturbance dynamics that are captured in satellite imagery. We point out the limitations of their assessment and focus on a way forward, moving beyond both inadequate field sampling and remote sensing to an approach the captures the full range of dynamics by directly coupling field and satellite measurements.