Institution
Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service
Other•Zagreb, Croatia•
About: Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service is a other organization based out in Zagreb, Croatia. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Numerical weather prediction & Precipitation. The organization has 72 authors who have published 105 publications receiving 1963 citations.
Topics: Numerical weather prediction, Precipitation, Climate model, Climate change, Mesoscale meteorology
Papers published on a yearly basis
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Centre national de la recherche scientifique1, Spanish National Research Council2, Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service3, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki4, Brandenburg University of Technology5, ETH Zurich6, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research7, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute8, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute9, University of Graz10, Max Planck Society11
TL;DR: In this article, the authors evaluated the ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe and found that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and Bowen ratio.
Abstract: The ability of a large ensemble of regional climate models to accurately simulate heat waves at the regional scale of Europe was evaluated. Within the EURO-CORDEX project, several state-of-the art models, including non-hydrostatic meso-scale models, were run for an extended time period (20 years) at high resolution (12 km), over a large domain allowing for the first time the simultaneous representation of atmospheric phenomena over a large range of spatial scales. Eight models were run in this configuration, and thirteen models were run at a classical resolution of 50 km. The models were driven with the same boundary conditions, the ERA-Interim re-analysis, and except for one simulation, no observations were assimilated in the inner domain. Results, which are compared with daily temperature and precipitation observations (ECA&D and E-OBS data sets) show that, even forced by the same re-analysis, the ensemble exhibits a large spread. A preliminary analysis of the sources of spread, using in particular simulations of the same model with different parameterizations, shows that the simulation of hot temperature is primarily sensitive to the convection and the microphysics schemes, which affect incoming energy and the Bowen ratio. Further, most models exhibit an overestimation of summertime temperature extremes in Mediterranean regions and an underestimation over Scandinavia. Even after bias removal, the simulated heat wave events were found to be too persistent, but a higher resolution reduced this deficiency. The amplitude of events as well as the variability beyond the 90th percentile threshold were found to be too strong in almost all simulations and increasing resolution did not generally improve this deficiency. Resolution increase was also shown to induce large-scale 90th percentile warming or cooling for some models, with beneficial or detrimental effects on the overall biases. Even though full causality cannot be established on the basis of this evaluation work, the drivers of such regional differences were shown to be linked to changes in precipitation due to resolution changes, affecting the energy partitioning. Finally, the inter-annual sequence of hot summers over central/southern Europe was found to be fairly well simulated in most experiments despite an overestimation of the number of hot days and of the variability. The accurate simulation of inter-annual variability for a few models is independent of the model bias. This indicates that internal variability of high summer temperatures should not play a major role in controlling inter-annual variability. Despite some improvements, especially along coastlines, the analyses conducted here did not allow us to generally conclude that a higher resolution is clearly beneficial for a correct representation of heat waves by regional climate models. Even though local-scale feedbacks should be better represented at high resolution, combinations of parameterizations have to be improved or adapted accordingly.
312 citations
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Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research1, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki2, Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics3, Charles University in Prague4, Norwegian Meteorological Institute5, Danish Meteorological Institute6, Met Office7, University of Oxford8, University of Lisbon9, University of Cantabria10, University of Copenhagen11, International Centre for Theoretical Physics12, Royal Meteorological Institute13, ETH Zurich14, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología15, Maynooth University16, University of Castilla–La Mancha17, Forschungszentrum Jülich18, University of Murcia19, Spanish National Research Council20, Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service21, Brandenburg University of Technology22, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute23, University of Bonn24, MeteoSwiss25, University of Graz26, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute27, Central Maine Community College28, Université Paris-Saclay29, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology30, Finnish Meteorological Institute31, National Center for Atmospheric Research32, University of Toulouse33, Ghent University34, University of Hohenheim35
TL;DR: The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative as discussed by the authors is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe, which includes the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution.
Abstract: The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.
237 citations
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International Centre for Theoretical Physics1, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research2, Goethe University Frankfurt3, Central Institution for Meteorology and Geodynamics4, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute5, Norwegian Meteorological Institute6, Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service7, Earth System Research Laboratory8, University of Oslo9, Met Office10, Augsburg College11, Spanish National Research Council12, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute13
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean.
Abstract: A recently launched project under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments Flagship Pilot Studies program (CORDEX-FPS) is presented. This initiative aims to build first-of-its-kind ensemble climate experiments of convection permitting models to investigate present and future convective processes and related extremes over Europe and the Mediterranean. In this manuscript the rationale, scientific aims and approaches are presented along with some preliminary results from the testing phase of the project. Three test cases were selected in order to obtain a first look at the ensemble performance. The test cases covered a summertime extreme precipitation event over Austria, a fall Foehn event over the Swiss Alps and an intensively documented fall event along the Mediterranean coast. The test cases were run in both “weather-like” (WL, initialized just before the event in question) and “climate” (CM, initialized 1 month before the event) modes. Ensembles of 18–21 members, representing six different modeling systems with different physics and modelling chain options, was generated for the test cases (27 modeling teams have committed to perform the longer climate simulations). Results indicate that, when run in WL mode, the ensemble captures all three events quite well with ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.67, 0.82 and 0.91. They suggest that the more the event is driven by large-scale conditions, the closer the agreement between the ensemble members. Even in climate mode the large-scale driven events over the Swiss Alps and the Mediterranean coasts are still captured (ensemble correlation skill scores of 0.90 and 0.62, respectively), but the inter-model spread increases as expected. In the case over Mediterranean the effects of local-scale interactions between flow and orography and land–ocean contrasts are readily apparent. However, there is a much larger, though not surprising, increase in the spread for the Austrian event, which was weakly forced by the large-scale flow. Though the ensemble correlation skill score is still quite high (0.80). The preliminary results illustrate both the promise and the challenges that convection permitting modeling faces and make a strong argument for an ensemble-based approach to investigating high impact convective processes.
180 citations
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University of Montpellier1, Technical University of Crete2, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ3, Spanish National Research Council4, Centre national de la recherche scientifique5, University of Toulouse6, University of Barcelona7, Istanbul University8, Aix-Marseille University9, Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service10, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis11, Foundation for Research & Technology – Hellas12, Cadi Ayyad University13, Ramon Llull University14, University of Murcia15, Boğaziçi University16, University of Lisbon17, University of Alicante18, École Polytechnique19
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide an overview of the key issues in research on climate change impacts on droughts, with a specific focus on the Mediterranean region, in order to: i) redefine more meaningful drought metrics tailored to the Mediterranean context, better take into account vegetation and its feedback on dunes, improve the modelling and forecasting of drought events through remote sensing and land surface models, and promote a more integrated vision of dunes taking into account both water availability and water use.
174 citations
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Centre national de la recherche scientifique1, United States Environmental Protection Agency2, Environment Canada3, Aarhus University4, University of Hertfordshire5, Paris Diderot University6, Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research7, University of Aveiro8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration9, Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service10, Business International Corporation11, Finnish Meteorological Institute12, Applied Science Private University13, École des ponts ParisTech14, Leibniz Association15
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the optimal ensemble size and quality of the members based on a clustering methodology to build a skilful ensemble based on model association and data clustering, which makes no use of priori knowledge of model skill.
157 citations
Authors
Showing all 76 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Čedo Branković | 24 | 45 | 2809 |
Ivan Güttler | 15 | 37 | 1754 |
Ivana Stiperski | 15 | 46 | 740 |
Martina Tudor | 14 | 48 | 767 |
Cleo Kosanović | 14 | 44 | 657 |
Melita Perčec Tadić | 13 | 29 | 1448 |
Lidija Srnec | 12 | 31 | 589 |
Stjepan Ivatek-Šahdan | 11 | 27 | 379 |
Marjana Gajić-Čapka | 11 | 36 | 1422 |
Amela Jeričević | 10 | 29 | 493 |
Branka Ivančan-Picek | 10 | 27 | 327 |
Kristian Horvath | 9 | 28 | 265 |
Višnjica Vučetić | 8 | 22 | 536 |
Mirta Patarčić | 8 | 19 | 486 |
Marina Mileta | 8 | 12 | 306 |