Showing papers in "International Journal of Biometeorology in 2014"

Standardized phenology monitoring methods to track plant and animal activity for science and resource management applications

Abstract: Phenology offers critical insights into the responses of species to climate change; shifts in species' phenologies can result in disruptions to the ecosystem processes and ser- vices upon which human livelihood depends. To better detect such shifts, scientists need long-term phenological records covering many taxa and across a broad geographic distribu- tion. To date, phenological observation efforts across the USA have been geographically limited and have used different methods, making comparisons across sites and species diffi- cult. To facilitate coordinated cross-site, cross-species, and geographically extensive phenological monitoring across the nation, the USA National Phenology Network has developed in situ monitoring protocols standardized across taxonomic groups and ecosystem types for terrestrial, freshwater, and marine plant and animal taxa. The protocols include elements that allow enhanced detection and description of phenological responses, including assessment of phenological "status" ,o r the ability to track presence-absence of a particular phenophase, as well as standards for documenting the degree to which phenological activity is expressed in terms of inten- sity or abundance. Data collected by this method can be integrated with historical phenology data sets, enabling the development of databases for spatial and temporal assessment of changes in status and trends of disparate organisms. To build a common, spatially, and temporally extensive multi- taxa phenological data set available for a variety of research and science applications, we encourage scientists, resources managers, and others conducting ecological monitoring or research to consider utilization of these standardized protocols for tracking the seasonal activity of plants and animals.

Impact of diurnal temperature range on human health: a systematic review

Abstract: Increasing epidemiological studies have shown that a rapid temperature change within 1 day is an independent risk factor for human health. This paper aimed to systematically review the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and human health and to propose future research directions. A literature search was conducted in October 2013 using the databases including PubMed, ScienceDirect, and EBSCO. Empirical studies regarding the relationship between DTR and mortality and morbidity were included. Twenty-five relevant studies were identified, among which, 11 investigated the relationship between DTR and mortality and 14 examined the impact of DTR on morbidity. The majority of existing studies reported that DTR was significantly associated with mortality and morbidity, particularly for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Notably, compared with adults, the elderly and children were more vulnerable to DTR effects. However, there were some inconsistencies regarding the susceptible groups, lag time, and threshold of DTR. The impact of DTR on human health may be confounded or modified by season, socioeconomic, and educational status. Further research is needed to further confirm the adverse effects of DTR in different geographical locations; examine the effects of DTR on the health of children aged one or under; explore extreme DTR effects on human health; analyze the difference of DTR effects on human health in different locations and the modified effects of potential confounding factors; and develop detailed preventive measures against large DTR, particularly for susceptible groups.

Effects of dietary selenium and vitamin E on immune response and biological blood parameters of broilers reared under thermoneutral or heat stress conditions

Abstract: A study was conducted using 360 broiler chickens to evaluate the effects of dietary vitamin E (0, 125 and 250 mg/kg), selenium (Se, 0, 0.5 and 1 mg/kg), or their different combinations on immune response and blood biological parameters of broilers raised under either thermoneutral (TN, 23.9 °C constant) or heat stress (HS, 23.9 to 37 °C cycling) conditions. Humoral immunity was assessed by intravenous injection of 7 % sheep red blood cell (SRBC) followed by evaluation of serum for antibody titers in primary and secondary responses. Heterophil to lymphocyte (H/L) ratio also determined as an indicator of stress. Furthermore, at the end of the experiment, birds were bled for determination of some biological parameters. There was a significant reduction in body weight and feed intake, but the feed conversion ratio increased when the birds were exposed to HS (P 0.05), whereas feed conversion was improved significantly by 125 mg/kg vitamin E (P < 0.05). The liver and lymphoid organ weights as well as IgM and IgG, antibody titers for primary and secondary antibody responses to SRBC were reduced significantly under HS (P < 0.05). Heat stress also resulted in a significant increase in H/L ratio (P < 0.05). Dietary vitamin E resulted in improvement of primary and secondary antibody responses both in TN and HS broilers (P < 0.05). The HS birds also showed an improved antibody titer in secondary response with high concentration of Se (P < 0.05). Vitamin E and Se had interactive effects on anti-SRBC titers; however, no consistent differences were found between dietary levels during the study. The H/L ratio decreased by feeding vitamin E at both levels either under HS or TN conditions (P < 0.05). The serum concentrations of glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol, and LDL-cholesterol were increased but serum HDL-cholesterol decreased in HS broilers (P < 0.05).

The epidemiology of occupational heat exposure in the United States: a review of the literature and assessment of research needs in a changing climate

Abstract: In recent years, the United States has experienced record-breaking summer heat. Climate change models forecast increasing US temperatures and more frequent heat wave events in the coming years. Exposure to environmental heat is a significant, but overlooked, workplace hazard that has not been well-characterized or studied. The working population is diverse; job function, age, fitness level, and risk factors to heat-related illnesses vary. Yet few studies have examined or characterized the incidence of occupational heat-related morbidity and mortality. There are no federal regulatory standards to protect workers from environmental heat exposure. With climate change as a driver for adaptation and prevention of heat disorders, crafting policy to characterize and prevent occupational heat stress for both indoor and outdoor workers is increasingly sensible, practical, and imperative.

The impact of heat waves on children’s health: a systematic review

Abstract: Young children are thought to be particularly sensitive to heat waves, but relatively less research attention has been paid to this field to date. A systematic review was conducted to elucidate the relationship between heat waves and children's health. Literature published up to August 2012 were identified using the following MeSH terms and keywords: "heatwave", "heat wave", "child health", "morbidity", "hospital admission", "emergency department visit", "family practice", "primary health care", "death" and "mortality". Of the 628 publications identified, 12 met the selection criteria. The existing literature does not consistently suggest that mortality among children increases significantly during heat waves, even though infants were associated with more heat-related deaths. Exposure to heat waves in the perinatal period may pose a threat to children's health. Pediatric diseases or conditions associated with heat waves include renal disease, respiratory disease, electrolyte imbalance and fever. Future research should focus on how to develop a consistent definition of a heat wave from a children's health perspective, identifying the best measure of children's exposure to heat waves, exploring sensitive outcome measures to quantify the impact of heat waves on children, evaluating the possible impacts of heat waves on children's birth outcomes, and understanding the differences in vulnerability to heat waves among children of different ages and from different income countries. Projection of the children's disease burden caused by heat waves under climate change scenarios, and development of effective heat wave mitigation and adaptation strategies that incorporate other child protective health measures, are also strongly recommended.

Prediction of human core body temperature using non-invasive measurement methods.

Abstract: The measurement of core body temperature is an efficient method for monitoring heat stress amongst workers in hot conditions. However, invasive measurement of core body temperature (e.g. rectal, intestinal, oesophageal temperature) is impractical for such applications. Therefore, the aim of this study was to define relevant non-invasive measures to predict core body temperature under various conditions. We conducted two human subject studies with different experimental protocols, different environmental temperatures (10 °C, 30 °C) and different subjects. In both studies the same non-invasive measurement methods (skin temperature, skin heat flux, heart rate) were applied. A principle component analysis was conducted to extract independent factors, which were then used in a linear regression model. We identified six parameters (three skin temperatures, two skin heat fluxes and heart rate), which were included for the calculation of two factors. The predictive value of these factors for core body temperature was evaluated by a multiple regression analysis. The calculated root mean square deviation (rmsd) was in the range from 0.28 °C to 0.34 °C for all environmental conditions. These errors are similar to previous models using non-invasive measures to predict core body temperature. The results from this study illustrate that multiple physiological parameters (e.g. skin temperature and skin heat fluxes) are needed to predict core body temperature. In addition, the physiological measurements chosen in this study and the algorithm defined in this work are potentially applicable as real-time core body temperature monitoring to assess health risk in broad range of working conditions.

A glossary for biometeorology

Abstract: Here we present, for the first time, a glossary of biometeorological terms. The glossary aims to address the need for a reliable source of biometeorological definitions, thereby facilitating communication and mutual understanding in this rapidly expanding field. A total of 171 terms are defined, with reference to 234 citations. It is anticipated that the glossary will be revisited in coming years, updating terms and adding new terms, as appropriate. The glossary is intended to provide a useful resource to the biometeorology community, and to this end, readers are encouraged to contact the lead author to suggest additional terms for inclusion in later versions of the glossary as a result of new and emerging developments in the field.

Chilling and heat requirements for flowering in temperate fruit trees

Abstract: Climate change has affected the rates of chilling and heat accumulation, which are vital for flowering and production, in temperate fruit trees, but few studies have been conducted in the cold-winter climates of East Asia. To evaluate tree responses to variation in chill and heat accumulation rates, partial least squares regression was used to correlate first flowering dates of chestnut (Castanea mollissima Blume) and jujube (Zizyphus jujube Mill.) in Beijing, China, with daily chill and heat accumulation between 1963 and 2008. The Dynamic Model and the Growing Degree Hour Model were used to convert daily records of minimum and maximum temperature into horticulturally meaningful metrics. Regression analyses identified the chilling and forcing periods for chestnut and jujube. The forcing periods started when half the chilling requirements were fulfilled. Over the past 50 years, heat accumulation during tree dormancy increased significantly, while chill accumulation remained relatively stable for both species. Heat accumulation was the main driver of bloom timing, with effects of variation in chill accumulation negligible in Beijing’s cold-winter climate. It does not seem likely that reductions in chill will have a major effect on the studied species in Beijing in the near future. Such problems are much more likely for trees grown in locations that are substantially warmer than their native habitats, such as temperate species in the subtropics and tropics.

The impact of heat, cold, and heat waves on hospital admissions in eight cities in Korea

Abstract: Although the impact of temperature on mortality is well documented, relatively fewer studies have evaluated the associations of temperature with morbidity outcomes such as hospital admissions, and most studies were conducted in North America or Europe. We evaluated weather and hospital admissions including specific causes (allergic disease, asthma, selected respiratory disease, and cardiovascular disease) in eight major cities in Korea from 2003 to 2008. We also explored potential effect modification by individual characteristics such as sex and age. We used hierarchical modeling to first estimate city-specific associations between heat, cold, or heat waves and hospitalizations, and then estimated overall effects. Stratified analyses were performed by cause of hospitalization, sex, and age (0-14, 15-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years). Cardiovascular hospitalizations were significantly associated with high temperature, whereas hospitalizations for allergic disease, asthma, and selected respiratory disease were significantly associated with low temperature. The overall heat effect for cardiovascular hospitalization was a 4.5% (95% confidence interval 0.7, 8.5%) increase in risk comparing hospitalizations at 25 to 15 °C. For cold effect, the overall increase in risk of hospitalizations comparing 2 with 15 °C was 50.5 (13.7, 99.2%), 43.6 (8.9, 89.5%), and 53.6% (9.8, 114.9%) for allergic disease, asthma, and selected respiratory disease, respectively. We did not find statistically significant effects of heat waves compared with nonheat wave days. Our results suggest susceptible populations such as women and younger persons. Our findings provide suggestive evidence that both high and low ambient temperatures are associated with the risk of hospital admissions, particularly in women or younger person, in Korea.

Interannual variations and trends in global land surface phenology derived from enhanced vegetation index during 1982–2010

Abstract: Land surface phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This study detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examined across Koeppen’s climate regions for the periods of 1982–1999 and 2000–2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and GSL varied considerably during 1982–2010 across the globe. Generally, the interannual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative GSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982–1999 and 2000–2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3 decades. OGI mainly showed late trends in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa while GSL was reversed from reduced GSL trends (1982–1999) to prolonged trends (2000–2010). In Australia, GSL exhibited considerable interannual variation, but the consistent trend lacked presence in most regions. Finally, the proportion of pixels with significant trends was less than 1 % in most of climate regions although it could be as large as 10 %.

The SSC: a decade of climate-health research and future directions.

Abstract: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the development of the revised Spatial Synoptic Classification, the “SSC”, by Scott Sheridan. This daily weather-type classification scheme has become one of the key analytical tools implemented in a diverse range of climatological investigations, including analysis of air quality variability, human health, vegetation growth, precipitation and snowfall trends, and broader analyses of historical and future climatic variability and trends. The continued and expanding use of the SSC motivates a review and comparison of the system’s research and geographic foci to date, with the goal of identifying promising areas for future efforts, particularly within the context of human health and climate change. This review also assesses how the SSC has complemented and compares with other current environmental epidemiological studies in weather and health.

Performance traits and immune response of broiler chicks treated with zinc and ascorbic acid supplementation during cyclic heat stress

Abstract: This research was conducted to investigate the effect of supplementation of zinc (Zn) and ascorbic acid (AA) in heat-stressed broilers. A total of 160-day-old broiler chicks of approximately the same weight and appearance were divided into four treatment groups (control, T1, T2, and T3). Control group was fed a standard diet without any supplementation. T1 was supplemented with Zn at the rate of 60 mg/kg of feed, T2 was supplemented with 300 mg/kg of feed AA, and T3 was supplemented with combination of Zn and AA. From week 3 to 5, heat stress environment was provided at the rate of 12 h at 25 °C, 3 h at 25 to 34 °C, 6 h at 34 °C, and 3 h at 34 to 25 °C daily. The results revealed that feed intake, body weight and feed conversion ratio (FCR), and weight of thymus, spleen, and bursa of Fabricius improved significantly (P < 0.05) in T3 compared to the other treatments. Antibody titer against Newcastle disease (ND), infectious bursal disease (IBD), and infectious bronchitis (IB) increased significantly (P < 0.05) in T2 and T3 groups. However, total leucocytes count, lymphocytes, and monocytes increased (P < 0.05) in all treated groups compared to control. The results indicated that the supplementation of Zn or AA alone or in combination improved the performance and immune status of broilers reared under heat stress.

Chilling and heat requirements for leaf unfolding in European beech and sessile oak populations at the southern limit of their distribution range

Abstract: With global warming, an advance in spring leaf phenology has been reported worldwide. However, it is difficult to forecast phenology for a given species, due to a lack of knowledge about chilling requirements. We quantified chilling and heat requirements for leaf unfolding in two European tree species and investigated their relative contributions to phenological variations between and within populations. We used an extensive database containing information about the leaf phenology of 14 oak and 10 beech populations monitored over elevation gradients since 2005. In parallel, we studied the various bud dormancy phases, in controlled conditions, by regularly sampling low- and high-elevation populations during fall and winter. Oak was 2.3 times more sensitive to temperature for leaf unfolding over the elevation gradient and had a lower chilling requirement for dormancy release than beech. We found that chilling is currently insufficient for the full release of dormancy, for both species, at the lowest elevations in the area studied. Genetic variation in leaf unfolding timing between and within oak populations was probably due to differences in heat requirement rather than differences in chilling requirement. Our results demonstrate the importance of chilling for leaf unfolding in forest trees and indicate that the advance in leaf unfolding phenology with increasing temperature will probably be less pronounced than forecasted. This highlights the urgent need to determine experimentally the interactions between chilling and heat requirements in forest tree species, to improve our understanding and modeling of changes in phenological timing under global warming.

The spatial pattern of leaf phenology and its response to climate change in China

Abstract: Leaf phenology has been shown to be one of the most important indicators of the effects of climate change on biological systems. Few such studies have, however, been published detailing the relationship between phenology and climate change in Asian contexts. With the aim of quantifying species’ phenological responsiveness to temperature and deepening understandings of spatial patterns of phenological and climate change in China, this study analyzes the first leaf date (FLD) and the leaf coloring date (LCD) from datasets of four woody plant species, Robinia pseudoacacia, Ulmus pumila, Salix babylonica, and Melia azedarach, collected from 1963 to 2009 at 47 Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) stations spread across China (from 21° to 50° N). The results of this study show that changes in temperatures in the range of 39–43 days preceding the date of FLD of these plants affected annual variations in FLD, while annual variations in temperature in the range of 71–85 days preceding LCD of these plants affected the date of LCD. Average temperature sensitivity of FLD and LCD for these plants was −3.93 to 3.30 days °C−1 and 2.11 to 4.43 days °C−1, respectively. Temperature sensitivity of FLD was found to be stronger at lower latitudes or altitude as well as in more continental climates, while the response of LCD showed no consistent pattern. Within the context of significant warming across China during the study period, FLD was found to have advanced by 5.44 days from 1960 to 2009; over the same period, LCD was found to have been delayed by 4.56 days. These findings indicate that the length of the growing season of the four plant species studied was extended by a total of 10.00 days from 1960 to 2009. They also indicate that phenological response to climate is highly heterogeneous spatially.

Short-term effects of meteorological factors on children hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangzhou, China

Abstract: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious viral illness that commonly affects infants and children. The underlying risk factors have not yet been systematically examined. This study analyzed the short-term effects of meteorological factors on children HFMD in Guangzhou, China. Daily count of HFMD among children younger than 15 years and meteorological variables from 2009 to 2011 were collected to construct the time series. A generalized additive model was applied to estimate the effects of meteorological factors on HFMD occurrence, after adjusting for long-term trend, seasonal trend, day of week, and public holidays. A negative association between temperature and children HFMD occurrence was observed at lag days 1-3, with the relative risk (RR) for a 1 °C increase on lag day 2 being 0.983 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.977 to 0.989); positive effect was found for temperature at lag days 5-9, with the highest effect at lag day 6 (RR = 1.014, 95% CI 1.006 to 1.023). Higher humidity was associated with increased HFMD at lag days 3-10, with the highest effect at lag day 8 (RR = 1.009 for 1% increase in relative humidity, 95% CI 1.007 to 1.010). And we also observed significant positive effect for rainfall at lag days 4 and 8 (RR = 1.001, 95% CI 1.000 to 1.002) for 1-mm increase. Subgroup analyses showed that the positive effects of temperature were more pronounced among younger children. This study suggests that meteorological factors might be important predictors of children HFMD occurrence in Guangzhou.

Outdoor thermal comfort characteristics in the hot and humid region from a gender perspective

Abstract: Thermal comfort is a subjective psychological perception of people based also on physiological thermoregulation mechanisms when the human body is exposed to a combination of various environmental factors including air temperature, air humidity, wind speed, and radiation conditions. Due to the importance of gender in the issue of outdoor thermal comfort, this study compared and examined the thermal comfort-related differences between male and female subjects using previous data from Taiwanese questionnaire survey. Compared with males, the results indicated that females in Taiwan are less tolerant to hot conditions and intensely protect themselves from sun exposure. Our analytical results are inconsistent with the findings of previous physiological studies concerning thermal comfort indicating that females have superior thermal physiological tolerance than males. On the contrary, our findings can be interpreted on psychological level. Environmental behavioral learning theory was adopted in this study to elucidate this observed contradiction between the autonomic thermal physiological and psychological-behavioral aspects. Women might desire for a light skin tone through social learning processes, such as observation and education, which is subsequently reflected in their psychological perceptions (fears of heat and sun exposure) and behavioral adjustments (carrying umbrellas or searching for shade). Hence, these unique psychological and behavioral phenomena cannot be directly explained by autonomic physiological thermoregulation mechanisms. The findings of this study serve as a reference for designing spaces that accommodates gender-specific thermal comfort characteristics. Recommendations include providing additional suitable sheltered areas in open areas, such as city squares and parks, to satisfy the thermal comfort needs of females.

Evidence-based hydro- and balneotherapy in Hungary--a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract: Balneotherapy is appreciated as a traditional treatment modality in medicine. Hungary is rich in thermal mineral waters. Balneotherapy has been in extensive use for centuries and its effects have been studied in detail. Here, we present a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical trials conducted with Hungarian thermal mineral waters, the findings of which have been published by Hungarian authors in English. The 122 studies identified in different databases include 18 clinical trials. Five of these evaluated the effect of hydro- and balneotherapy on chronic low back pain, four on osteoarthritis of the knee, and two on osteoarthritis of the hand. One of the remaining seven trials evaluated balneotherapy in chronic inflammatory pelvic diseases, while six studies explored its effect on various laboratory parameters. Out of the 18 studies, 9 met the predefined criteria for meta-analysis. The results confirmed the beneficial effect of balneotherapy on pain with weight bearing and at rest in patients with degenerative joint and spinal diseases. A similar effect has been found in chronic pelvic inflammatory disease. The review also revealed that balneotherapy has some beneficial effects on antioxidant status, and on metabolic and inflammatory parameters. Based on the results, we conclude that balneotherapy with Hungarian thermal-mineral waters is an effective remedy for lower back pain, as well as for knee and hand osteoarthritis.

Heat- and cold-stress effects on cardiovascular mortality and morbidity among urban and rural populations in the Czech Republic

Abstract: Several studies have examined the relationship of high and low air temperatures to cardiovascular mortality in the Czech Republic. Much less is understood about heat-/cold-related cardiovascular morbidity and possible regional differences. This paper compares the effects of warm and cold days on excess mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in the city of Prague and a rural region of southern Bohemia during 1994-2009. Population size and age structure are similar in the two regions. The results are evaluated for selected population groups (men and women). Excess mortality (number of deaths) and morbidity (number of hospital admissions) were determined as differences between observed and expected daily values, the latter being adjusted for long-term changes, annual and weekly cycles, and epidemics of influenza/acute respiratory infections. Generally higher relative excess CVD mortality on warm days than on cold days was identified in both regions. In contrast to mortality, weak excess CVD morbidity was observed for both warm and cold days. Different responses of individual CVDs to heat versus cold stress may be caused by the different nature of each CVD and different physiological processes induced by heat or cold stress. The slight differences between Prague and southern Bohemia in response to heat versus cold stress suggest the possible influence of environmental and socioeconomic factors such as the effects of urban heat island and exposure to air pollution, lifestyle differences, and divergence in population structure, which may result in differing vulnerability of urban versus rural population to temperature extremes.

Comparison of different methods of estimating the mean radiant temperature in outdoor thermal comfort studies

Abstract: Correlations between outdoor thermal indices and the calculated or measured mean radiant temperature T(mrt) are in general of high importance because of the combined effect on human energy balance in outdoor spaces. The most accurate way to determine T(mrt) is by means of integral radiation measurements, i.e. measuring the short- and long-wave radiation from six directions using pyranometers and pyrgeometers, an expensive and not always an easily available procedure. Some studies use globe thermometers combined with air temperature and wind speed sensors. An alternative way to determine T(mrt) is based on output from the RayMan model from measured data of incoming global radiation and morphological features of the monitoring site in particular sky view factor (SVF) data. The purpose of this paper is to compare different methods to assess the mean radiant temperature T(mrt) in terms of differences to a reference condition (T(mrt) calculated from field measurements) and to resulting outdoor comfort levels expressed as PET and UTCI values. The T(mrt) obtained from field measurements is a combination of air temperature, wind speed and globe temperature data according to the forced ventilation formula of ISO 7726 for data collected in Glasgow, UK. Four different methods were used in the RayMan model for T(mrt) calculations: input data consisting exclusively of data measured at urban sites; urban data excluding solar radiation, estimated SVF data and solar radiation data measured at a rural site; urban data excluding solar radiation with SVF data for each site; urban data excluding solar radiation and including solar radiation at the rural site taking no account of SVF information. Results show that all methods overestimate T(mrt) when compared to ISO calculations. Correlations were found to be significant for the first method and lower for the other three. Results in terms of comfort (PET, UTCI) suggest that reasonable estimates could be made based on global radiation data measured at the urban site or as a surrogate of missing SR data or globe temperature data recorded at the urban area on global radiation data measured at a rural location.

Berry composition and climate: responses and empirical models

Abstract: Climate is a strong modulator of berry composition. Accordingly, the projected change in climate is expected to impact on the composition of berries and of the resultant wines. However, the direction and extent of climate change impact on fruit composition of winegrape cultivars are not fully known. This study utilised a climate gradient along a 700 km transect, covering all wine regions of Western Australia, to explore and empirically describe influences of climate on anthocyanins, pH and titratable acidity (TA) levels in two or three cultivars of Vitis vinifera (Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay and Shiraz). The results showed that, at a common maturity of 22° Brix total soluble solids, berries from the warmer regions had low levels of anthocyanins and TA as well as high pH compared to berries from the cooler regions. Most of these regional variations in berry composition reflected the prevailing climatic conditions of the regions. Thus, depending on cultivar, 82–87 % of TA, 83 % of anthocyanins and about half of the pH variations across the gradient were explained by climate-variable-based empirical models. Some of the variables that were relevant in describing the variations in berry attributes included: diurnal ranges and ripening period temperature (TA), vapour pressure deficit in October and growing degree days (pH), and ripening period temperatures (anthocyanins). Further, the rates of change in these berry attributes in response to climate variables were cultivar dependent. Based on the observed patterns along the climate gradient, it is concluded that: (1) in a warming climate, all other things being equal, berry anthocyanins and TA levels will decline whereas pH levels will rise; and (2) despite variations in non-climatic factors (e.g. soil type and management) along the sampling transect, variations in TA and anthocyanins were satisfactorily described using climate-variable-based empirical models, indicating the overriding impact of climate on berry composition. The models presented here are useful tools for assessing likely changes in berry TA and anthocyanins in response to changing climate for the wine regions and cultivars covered in this study.

Ground and remote sensing-based measurements of leaf area index in a transitional forest and seasonal flooded forest in Brazil

Abstract: Leaf area index (LAI) is a key driver of forest productivity and evapotranspiration; however, it is a difficult and labor-intensive variable to measure, making its measurement impractical for large-scale and long-term studies of tropical forest structure and function. In contrast, satellite estimates of LAI have shown promise for large-scale and long-term studies, but their performance has been equivocal and the biases are not well known. We measured total, overstory, and understory LAI of an Amazon-savanna transitional forest (ASTF) over 3 years and a seasonal flooded forest (SFF) during 4 years using a light extinction method and two remote sensing methods (LAI MODIS product and the Landsat-METRIC method), with the objectives of (1) evaluating the performance of the remote sensing methods, and (2) understanding how total, overstory and understory LAI interact with micrometeorological variables. Total, overstory and understory LAI differed between both sites, with ASTF having higher LAI values than SFF, but neither site exhibited year-to-year variation in LAI despite large differences in meteorological variables. LAI values at the two sites have different patterns of correlation with micrometeorological variables. ASTF exhibited smaller seasonal variations in LAI than SFF. In contrast, SFF exhibited small changes in total LAI; however, dry season declines in overstory LAI were counteracted by understory increases in LAI. MODIS LAI correlated weakly to total LAI for SFF but not for ASTF, while METRIC LAI had no correlation to total LAI. However, MODIS LAI correlated strongly with overstory LAI for both sites, but had no correlation with understory LAI. Furthermore, LAI estimates based on canopy light extinction were correlated positively with seasonal variations in rainfall and soil water content and negatively with vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation; however, in some cases satellite-derived estimates of LAI exhibited no correlation with climate variables (METRIC LAI or MODIS LAI for ASTF). These data indicate that the satellite-derived estimates of LAI are insensitive to the understory variations in LAI that occur in many seasonal tropical forests and the micrometeorological variables that control seasonal variations in leaf phenology. While more ground-based measurements are needed to adequately quantify the performance of these satellite-based LAI products, our data indicate that their output must be interpreted with caution in seasonal tropical forests.

The relationship between bioclimatic thermal stress and subjective thermal sensation in pedestrian spaces

Abstract: Outdoor thermal comfort has important implications for urban planning and energy consumption in the built environment. To better understand the relation of subjective thermal experience to bioclimatic thermal stress in such contexts, this study compares micrometeorological and perceptual data from urban spaces in the hot-arid Negev region of Israel. Pedestrians reported on their thermal sensation in these spaces, whereas radiation and convection-related data were used to compute the Index of Thermal Stress (ITS) and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The former is a straightforward characterization of energy exchanges between the human body and its surroundings, without any conversion to an "equivalent temperature." Although the relation of ITS to subjective thermal sensation has been analyzed in the past under controlled indoor conditions, this paper offers the first analysis of this relation in an outdoor setting. ITS alone can account for nearly 60 % of the variance in pedestrians' thermal sensation under outdoor conditions, somewhat more than PET. A series of regressions with individual contextual variables and ITS identified those factors which accounted for additional variance in thermal sensation, whereas multivariate analyses indicated the considerable predictive power (R-square = 0.74) of models including multiple contextual variables in addition to ITS. Our findings indicate that pedestrians experiencing variable outdoor conditions have a greater tolerance for incremental changes in thermal stress than has been shown previously under controlled indoor conditions, with a tapering of responses at high values of ITS. However, the thresholds of ITS corresponding to thermal "neutrality" and thermal "acceptability" are quite consistent regardless of context.

Identification of potential sources of airborne Olea pollen in the Southwest Iberian Peninsula

Abstract: This study aims to determine the potential origin of Olea pollen recorded in Badajoz in the Southwest of the Iberian Peninsula during 2009–2011. This was achieved using a combination of daily average and diurnal (hourly) airborne Olea pollen counts recorded at Badajoz (south-western Spain) and Evora (south-eastern Portugal), an inventory of olive groves in the studied area and air mass trajectory calculations computed using the HYSPLIT model. Examining olive pollen episodes at Badajoz that had distinctly different diurnal cycles in olive pollen in relation to the mean, allowed us to identify three different scenarios where olive pollen can be transported to the city from either distant or nearby sources during conditions with slow air mass movements. Back trajectory analysis showed that olive pollen can be transported to Badajoz from the West on prevailing winds, either directly or on slow moving air masses, and from high densities of olive groves situated to the Southeast (e.g. Andalucia). Regional scale transport of olive pollen can result in increased nighttime concentrations of this important aeroallergen. This could be particularly important in Mediterranean countries where people can be outdoors during this time due to climate and lifestyle. Such studies that examine sources and the atmospheric transport of pollen are valuable for allergy sufferers and health care professionals because the information can be incorporated into forecasts, the outputs of which are used for avoiding exposure to aeroallergens and planning medication. The results of studies of this nature can also be used for examining gene flow in this important agricultural crop.

The influence of meteorological and geomagnetic factors on acute myocardial infarction and brain stroke in Moscow, Russia.

Abstract: Evidence of the impact of air temperature and pressure on cardiovascular morbidity is still quite limited and controversial, and even less is known about the potential influence of geomagnetic activity. The objective of this study was to assess impacts of air temperature, barometric pressure and geomagnetic activity on hospitalizations with myocardial infarctions and brain strokes. We studied 2,833 myocardial infarctions and 1,096 brain strokes registered in two Moscow hospitals between 1992 and 2005. Daily event rates were linked with meteorological and geomagnetic conditions, using generalized linear model with controls for day of the week, seasonal and long-term trends. The number of myocardial infarctions decreased with temperature, displayed a U-shaped relationship with pressure and variations in pressure, and increased with geomagnetic activity. The number of strokes increased with temperature, daily temperature range and geomagnetic activity. Detrimental effects on strokes of low pressure and falling pressure were observed. Relative risks of infarctions and strokes during geomagnetic storms were 1.29 (95% CI 1.19-1.40) and 1.25 (1.10-1.42), respectively. The number of strokes doubled during cold spells. The influence of barometric pressure on hospitalizations was relatively greater than the influence of geomagnetic activity, and the influence of temperature was greater than the influence of pressure. Brain strokes were more sensitive to inclement weather than myocardial infarctions. This paper provides quantitative estimates of the expected increases in hospital admissions on the worst days and can help to develop preventive health plans for cardiovascular diseases.

Heat accumulation period in the Mediterranean region: phenological response of the olive in different climate areas (Spain, Italy and Tunisia).

Abstract: The main characteristics of the heat accumulation period and the possible existence of different types of biological response to the environment in different populations of olive through the Mediterranean region have been evaluated. Chilling curves to determine the start date of the heat accumulation period were constructed and evaluated. The results allow us to conclude that the northern olive populations have the greatest heat requirements for the development of their floral buds, and they need a period of time longer than olives in others areas to completely satisfy their biothermic requirements. The olive trees located in the warmest winter areas have a faster transition from endogenous to exogenous inhibition once the peak of chilling is met, and they show more rapid floral development. The lower heat requirements are due to better adaptation to warmer regions. Both the threshold temperature and the peak of flowering date are closely related to latitude. Different types of biological responses of olives to the environment were found. The adaptive capacity shown by the olive tree should be considered as a useful tool with which to study the effects of global climatic change on agro-ecosystems.

Climate Change and Thermal Comfort in Hong Kong

Abstract: Thermal comfort is a major issue in cities and it is expected to change in the future due to the changing climate. The objective of this paper is to use the universal thermal comfort index (UTCI) to compare the outdoor thermal comfort in Hong Kong in the past (1971–2000) and the future (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The future climate of Hong Kong was determined by the general circulation model (GCM) simulations of future climate scenarios (A1B and B1) established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Three GCMs were chosen, GISS-ER, GFDL-CM2.1 and MRI-CGCM2.3.2, based on their performance in simulating past climate. Through a statistical downscaling procedure, the future climatic variables were transferred to the local scale. The UTCI is calculated by four predicted climate variables: air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and solar radiation. After a normalisation procedure, future UTCI profiles for the urban area of Hong Kong were created. Comparing the past UTCI (calculated by observation data) and future UTCI, all three GCMs predicted that the future climate scenarios have a higher mode and a higher maximum value. There is a shift from ‘No Thermal Stress’ toward ‘Moderate Heat Stress’ and ‘Strong Heat Stress’ during the period 2046–2065, becoming more severe for the later period (2081–2100). Comparing the two scenarios, B1 exhibited similar projections in the two time periods whereas for A1B there was a significant difference, with both the mode and maximum increasing by 2 °C from 2046–2065 to 2081–2100.

Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States

Abstract: Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1-2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6%-248%. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.

Modeling greenup date of dominant grass species in the Inner Mongolian Grassland using air temperature and precipitation data.

Abstract: This work was undertaken to examine the combined effect of air temperature and precipitation during late winter and early spring on modeling greenup date of grass species in the Inner Mongolian Grassland. We used the traditional thermal time model and developed two revised thermal time models coupling air temperature and precipitation to simulate greenup date of three dominant grass species at six stations from 1983 to 2009. Results show that climatic controls on greenup date of grass species were location-specific. The revised thermal time models coupling air temperature and precipitation show higher simulation parsimony and efficiency than the traditional thermal time model for five of 11 data sets at Bayartuhushuo, Xilinhot and Xianghuangqi, whereas the traditional thermal time model indicates higher simulation parsimony and efficiency than the revised thermal time models coupling air temperature and precipitation for the other six data sets at E’ergunayouqi, Ewenkeqi and Chaharyouyihouqi. The mean root mean square error of the 11 models is 4.9 days. Moreover, the influence of late winter and early spring precipitation on greenup date seems to be stronger at stations with scarce precipitation than at stations with relatively abundant precipitation. From the mechanism perspectives, accumulated late winter and early spring precipitation may play a more important role as the precondition of forcing temperature than as the supplementary condition of forcing temperature in triggering greenup. Our findings suggest that predicting responses of grass phenology to global climate change should consider both thermal and moisture scenarios in some semiarid and arid areas.

Impact of short-term heat stress on physiological responses and expression profile of HSPs in Barbari goats.

Abstract: Six, nonpregnant, Barbari goats aged 4–5 years were selected for the study. For the first 6 days, the animals were kept in psychrometric chamber at thermoneutral temperature for 6 h each day to make them acclimated to climatic chamber. On the 7th day, the animals were exposed to 41 °C temperature for 3 h and then to 45 °C for the next 3 h. Cardinal physiological responses were measured, and blood samples (3 ml) were collected at 1-h interval during the heat exposure period and then once after 6 h of the heat exposure. The rectal temperature (RT) and respiratory rate (RR) increased significantly (P < 0.05) during the heat exposure compared to pre- and postexposure. The relative messenger RNA (mRNA) expression of heat shock protein (HSP)60, HSP70, and HSP90 increased significantly (P < 0.05) within 1 h after exposure to heat stress at 41 and 45 °C and decreased significantly (P < 0.05) in next 2 h but remain significantly (P < 0.05) elevated from preexposure. HSP105/110 relative mRNA expression level remained unchanged during the first 4 h, and thereafter, it increased significantly (P < 0.05) and reached the peak at 6 h. Relative protein expression pattern of HSPs during exposure to heat stress showed similar trend as observed for the relative mRNA expression. Given the response sensitivity and intensity of HSP genes to environmental stresses, HSP70 was found to be the most sensitive to temperature fluctuation, and it could be used as an important molecular biomarker to heat stress in animals.

Body temperature and respiratory dynamics in un-shaded beef cattle

Abstract: In this study body temperature (BT, °C) and panting score (PS, 0–4.5; where 0 = no panting/no stress and 4.5 = catastrophic stress) data were obtained from 30 Angus steers housed outside over 120 days Steers were implanted with a BT transmitter on day −31, BT was recorded at 30-min intervals to a data logger and downloaded each day to a database. The cattle were housed in ten outdoor un-shaded pens with an earthen floor, eight of which had a pen floor area of 144 m2 (three transmitter steers plus five non-transmitter steers; 18 m2/steer) and two had an area of 168 m2 (three transmitter steers and six non-transmitter steers; 18.7 m2/steer). Only data from the transmitter steers were used in this study. The PS of the steers was obtained daily (± 15 min) at 0600 hours (AM), 1200 hours (MD) and 1600 hours (PM). At the same times climate variables (ambient temperature, black globe temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity, wind speed and rainfall) were obtained from an on-site weather station. PS observations were made from outside the pens so as not to influence cattle responses. The two closest BT values to the time when PS was obtained were downloaded retrospectively from a logger and averaged. A total of 8,352 observations were used to generate second order polynomial response curves: (AM) y = 39.08 + 0.009 x + 0.137x 2 (R 2 = 0.94; P < 0.001) (MD) y = 39.09 + 0.914x − 0.080x 2 (R 2 = 0.89; P < 0.001) and (PM) y = 39.52 + 0.790x − 0.068x 2 (R 2 = 0.83; P < 0.001) where y = BT (°C) and x PS. These data suggest that PS is a good indicator of body temperature. The BT at MD corresponded to slightly lower PS compared with PM, e.g., for PS 1; BT at MD = 39.1 ± 0.05 °C whereas BT at PM = 39.5 ± 0.05 °C. However during AM, BT was lower (P < 0.05) at PS 1, 2 and 2.5 compared with MD and PM. For example, when PS was 2.5 the BT at AM was 40.2 ± 0.04 °C, at MD it was 40.9 ± 0.04 °C and at PM BT was 41.1 ± 0.04 °C. When PS was 0 the BT at AM and MD were similar. The AM response curve suggests animals attempt to increase heat dissipation during the cooler AM period relative to MD and PM. Morning observation of cattle (before feeding) are crucial for effective heat load management especially on days when high heat load is expected. The MD and PM observations provide a good indication of the impact of high environmental heat load on cattle. Differences in PS between AM and PM observations suggest that more research is needed to determine the effect of night time conditions on BT, PS and overall respiratory dynamics of cattle during periods of hot weather.