Showing papers in "Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences in 2016"

Review of Aerosol–Cloud Interactions: Mechanisms, Significance, and Challenges

Abstract: Over the past decade, the number of studies that investigate aerosol–cloud interactions has increased considerably. Although tremendous progress has been made to improve the understanding of basic physical mechanisms of aerosol–cloud interactions and reduce their uncertainties in climate forcing, there is still poor understanding of 1) some of the mechanisms that interact with each other over multiple spatial and temporal scales, 2) the feedbacks between microphysical and dynamical processes and between local-scale processes and large-scale circulations, and 3) the significance of cloud–aerosol interactions on weather systems as well as regional and global climate. This review focuses on recent theoretical studies and important mechanisms on aerosol–cloud interactions and discusses the significances of aerosol impacts on radiative forcing and precipitation extremes associated with different cloud systems. The authors summarize the main obstacles preventing the science from making a leap—for exampl...

The MJO as a Dispersive, Convectively Coupled Moisture Wave: Theory and Observations

Abstract: A linear wave theory for the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), previously developed by Sobel and Maloney, is extended upon in this study. In this treatment, column moisture is the only prognostic variable and the horizontal wind is diagnosed as the forced Kelvin and Rossby wave responses to an equatorial heat source/sink. Unlike the original framework, the meridional and vertical structure of the basic equations is treated explicitly, and values of several key model parameters are adjusted, based on observations. A dispersion relation is derived that adequately describes the MJO’s signal in the wavenumber–frequency spectrum and defines the MJO as a dispersive equatorial moist wave with a westward group velocity. On the basis of linear regression analysis of satellite and reanalysis data, it is estimated that the MJO’s group velocity is ~40% as large as its phase speed. This dispersion is the result of the anomalous winds in the wave modulating the mean distribution of moisture such that the moistur...

Past, present and future atmospheric nitrogen deposition

Abstract: Reactive nitrogen emissions into the atmosphere are increasing due to human activities, affecting nitrogen deposition to the surface and impacting the productivity of terrestrial and marine ecosystems. An atmospheric chemistry-transport model (TM4-ECPL) is here used to calculate the global distribution of total nitrogen deposition, accounting for the first time for both its inorganic and organic fractions in gaseous and particulate phases, and past and projected changes due to anthropogenic activities. The anthropogenic and biomass burning ACCMIP historical and RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios are used. Accounting for organic nitrogen (ON) primary emissions, the present-day global nitrogen atmospheric source is about 60% anthropogenic, while total N deposition increases by about 20% relative to simulations without ON primary emissions. About 20-25% of total deposited N is ON. About 10% of the emitted nitrogen oxides are deposited as ON instead of inorganic nitrogen (IN) as is considered in most global models. Almost a 3-fold increase over land (2-fold over the ocean) has been calculated for soluble N deposition due to human activities from 1850 to present. The investigated projections indicate significant changes in the regional distribution of N deposition and chemical composition, with reduced compounds gaining importance relative to oxidized ones, but very small changes in the global total flux. Sensitivity simulations quantify uncertainties due to the investigated model parameterizations of IN partitioning onto aerosols and of N chemically fixed on organics to be within 10% for the total soluble N deposition and between 25-35% for the dissolved ON deposition. Larger uncertainties are associated with N emissions.

A Unified Theory for the Great Plains Nocturnal Low-Level Jet

Abstract: A theory is presented for the Great Plains low-level jet in which the jet emerges in the sloping atmospheric boundary layer as the nocturnal phase of an oscillation arising from diurnal variations in turbulent diffusivity (Blackadar mechanism) and surface buoyancy (Holton mechanism). The governing equations are the equations of motion, mass conservation, and thermal energy for a stably stratified fluid in the Boussinesq approximation. Attention is restricted to remote (far above slope) geostrophic winds that blow along the terrain isoheights (southerly for the Great Plains). Diurnally periodic solutions are obtained analytically with diffusivities that vary as piecewise constant functions of time and slope buoyancies that vary as piecewise linear functions of time. The solution is controlled by 11 parameters: slope angle, Coriolis parameter, free-atmosphere Brunt–Vaisala frequency, free-atmosphere geostrophic wind, radiative damping parameter, day and night diffusivities, maximum and minimum surfa...

On the Predictability and Error Sources of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Abstract: The skill of tropical cyclone intensity forecasts has improved slowly since such forecasts became routine, even though track forecast skill has increased markedly over the same period. In deciding whether or how best to improve intensity forecasts, it is useful to estimate fundamental predictability limits as well as sources of intensity error. Toward that end, the authors estimate rates of error growth in a “perfect model” framework in which the same model is used to explore the sensitivities of tropical cyclone intensity to perturbations in the initial storm intensity and large-scale environment. These are compared to estimates made in previous studies and to intensity error growth in real-time forecasts made using the same model, in which model error also plays an important role. The authors find that error growth over approximately the first few days in the perfect model framework is dominated by errors in initial intensity, after which errors in forecasting the track and large-scale kinematic...

Deep Convection and Column Water Vapor over Tropical Land versus Tropical Ocean: A Comparison between the Amazon and the Tropical Western Pacific

Abstract: The relationships between the onset of tropical deep convection, column water vapor (CWV), and other measures of conditional instability are analyzed with 2 yr of data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility in Manacapuru, Brazil, as part of the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) campaign, and with 3.5 yr of CWV derived from global positioning system meteorology at a nearby site in Manaus, Brazil. Important features seen previously in observations over tropical oceans—precipitation conditionally averaged by CWV exhibiting a sharp pickup at high CWV, and the overall shape of the CWV distribution for both precipitating and nonprecipitating points—are also found for this tropical continental region. The relationship between rainfall and CWV reflects the impact of lower-free-tropospheric moisture variability on convection. Specifically, CWV over land, as over ocean, is a proxy for the effect of free-tropospheric moisture on conditional instability as indicated by entraining plu...

Diurnal Variations of the Land-Sea Breeze and Its Related Precipitation over South China

Abstract: Convection-permitting numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are performed to examine the diurnal cycles of land and sea breeze and its related precipitation over the south China coastal region during the mei-yu season. The focus of the analyses is a 10-day simulation initialized with the average of the 0000 UTC gridded global analyses during the 2007–09 mei-yu seasons (11 May–24 June) with diurnally varying cyclic lateral boundary conditions. Despite differences in the rainfall intensity and locations, the simulation verified well against averages of 3-yr ground-based radar, surface, and CMORPH observations and successfully simulated the diurnal variation and propagation of rainfall associated with the land and sea breeze over the south China coastal region. The nocturnal offshore rainfall in this region is found to be induced by the convergence line between the prevailing low-level monsoonal wind and the land breeze. Inhomogeneity of rainfall intensity can b...

Parameterization of Cloud Microphysics Based on the Prediction of Bulk Ice Particle Properties. Part III: Introduction of Multiple Free Categories

Abstract: The predicted particle properties (P3) scheme introduced in Part I of this series represents all ice hydrometeors using a single “free” category, in which the bulk properties evolve smoothly through changes in the prognostic variables, allowing for the representation of any type of ice particle. In this study, P3 has been expanded to include multiple free ice-phase categories allowing particle populations with different sets of bulk properties to coexist, thereby reducing the detrimental effects of property dilution. The modified version of P3 is the first scheme to parameterize ice-phase microphysics using multiple free categories.The multicategory P3 scheme is described and its overall behavior is illustrated. It is shown using an idealized 1D kinematic model that the overall simulation of total ice mass, reflectivity, and surface precipitation converges with additional categories. The correct treatment of the rime splintering process, which promotes multiple ice modes, is shown to require at le...

Atmospheric Stability Influences on Coupled Boundary Layer and Canopy Turbulence

Abstract: Large-eddy simulation of atmospheric boundary layers interacting with a coupled and resolved plant canopy reveals the influence of atmospheric stability variations from neutral to free convection on canopy turbulence. The design and implementation of a new multilevel canopy model is presented. Instantaneous fields from the simulations show that organized motions on the scale of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) depth bring high momentum down to canopy top, locally modulating the vertical shear of the horizontal wind. The evolution of these ABL-scale structures with increasing instability and their impact on vertical profiles of turbulence moments and integral length scales within and above the canopy are discussed. Linkages between atmospheric turbulence and biological control impact horizontal scalar source distributions. Decreasing spatial correlation between momentum and scalar fluxes with increasing instability results from ABL-scale structures spatially segregating momentum and scalar exch...

Sensitivity Study on the Influence of Cloud Microphysical Parameters on Mixed-Phase Cloud Thermodynamic Phase Partitioning in CAM5

Abstract: The influence of six CAM5.1 cloud microphysical parameters on the variance of phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds is determined by application of a variance-based sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis is based on a generalized linear model that assumes a polynomial relationship between the six parameters and the two-way interactions between them. The parameters, bounded such that they yield realistic cloud phase values, were selected by adopting a quasi–Monte Carlo sampling approach. The sensitivity analysis is applied globally, and to 20°-latitude-wide bands, and over the Southern Ocean at various mixed-phase cloud isotherms and reveals that the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) time scale for the growth of ice crystals single-handedly accounts for the vast majority of the variance in cloud phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds, while its interaction with the WBF time scale for the growth of snowflakes plays a secondary role. The fraction of dust aerosols active as ice nuclei in l...

Role of Radiative–Convective Feedbacks in Spontaneous Tropical Cyclogenesis in Idealized Numerical Simulations

Abstract: The authors perform 3D cloud-resolving simulations of radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) in a rotating framework, with interactive radiation and surface fluxes and fixed sea surface temperature. A tropical cyclone is allowed to develop spontaneously from a homogeneous environment, rather than initializing the circulation with a weak vortex or moist bubble (as is often done in numerical simulations of tropical cyclones). The resulting tropical cyclogenesis is compared to the self-aggregation of convection that occurs in nonrotating RCE simulations. The feedbacks leading to cyclogenesis are quantified using a variance budget equation for the column-integrated frozen moist static energy. In the initial development of a broad circulation, feedbacks involving longwave radiation and surface enthalpy fluxes dominate, which is similar to the initial phase of nonrotating self-aggregation. Mechanism denial experiments are also performed to determine the extent to which the radiative feedbacks that are e...

Turbulent Winds and Temperature Fronts in Large-Eddy Simulations of the Stable Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Abstract: The nighttime high-latitude stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer (SBL) is computationally simulated using high–Reynolds number large-eddy simulation on meshes varying from 2003 to 10243 over 9 physical hours for surface cooling rates Cr = [0.25, 1] K h−1. Continuous weakly stratified turbulence is maintained for this range of cooling, and the SBL splits into two regions depending on the location of the low-level jet (LLJ) and . Above the LLJ, turbulence is very weak and the gradient Richardson number is nearly constant: . Below the LLJ, small scales are dynamically important as the shear and buoyancy frequencies vary with mesh resolution. The heights of the SBL and Ri noticeably decrease as the mesh is varied from 2003 to 10243. Vertical profiles of the Ozmidov scale show its rapid decrease with increasing , with over a large fraction of the SBL for high cooling. Flow visualization identifies ubiquitous warm–cool temperature fronts populating the SBL. The fronts span a large vertical exten...

An Investigation of the Presence of Atmospheric Rivers over the North Pacific during Planetary-Scale Wave Life Cycles and Their Role in Arctic Warming

Abstract: Heretofore, the tropically excited Arctic warming (TEAM) mechanism put forward that localized tropical convection amplifies planetary-scale waves, which transport sensible and latent heat into the Arctic, leading to an enhancement of downward infrared radiation and Arctic surface warming. In this study, an investigation is made into the previously unexplored contribution of the synoptic-scale waves and their attendant atmospheric rivers to the TEAM mechanism. Reanalysis data are used to conduct a suite of observational analyses, trajectory calculations, and idealized model simulations. It is shown that localized tropical convection over the Maritime Continent precedes the peak of the planetary-scale wave life cycle by ~10–14 days. The Rossby wave source induced by the tropical convection excites a Rossby wave train over the North Pacific that amplifies the climatological December–March stationary waves. These amplified planetary-scale waves are baroclinic and transport sensible and latent heat pol...

The Role of Warm Conveyor Belts for the Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract: The role of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and their associated positive low-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies are investigated for extratropical cyclones in Northern Hemisphere winter, using ERA-Interim and composite techniques. The Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.68 implies a moderate to strong correlation between cyclone intensification and WCB strength. Hereby, cyclone intensification is quantified by the normalized maximum 24-h central sea level pressure deepening and WCB strength by the WCB air mass associated with the cyclone’s 24-h period of strongest deepening. Explosively intensifying cyclones typically have strong WCBs and pronounced WCB-related PV production in the cyclone center; they are associated with a WCB of type W2, which ascends close to the cyclone center. Cyclones with similar WCB strength but weak intensification are either diabatic Rossby waves, which do not interact with an upper-level disturbance, or cyclones where much of the WCB-related PV production occurs far...

Local Finite-Amplitude Wave Activity as a Diagnostic of Anomalous Weather Events

Abstract: Finite-amplitude Rossby wave activity (FAWA) proposed by Nakamura and Zhu measures the waviness of quasigeostrophic potential vorticity (PV) contours and the associated modification of the zonal-mean zonal circulation, but it does not distinguish longitudinally localized weather anomalies, such as atmospheric blocking. In this article, FAWA is generalized to local wave activity (LWA) to diagnose eddy–mean flow interaction on the regional scale. LWA quantifies longitude-by-longitude contributions to FAWA following the meridional displacement of PV from the circle of equivalent latitude. The zonal average of LWA recovers FAWA. The budget of LWA is governed by the zonal advection of LWA and the radiation stress of Rossby waves. The utility of the diagnostic is tested with a barotropic vorticity equation on a sphere and meteorological reanalysis data. Compared with the previously derived Eulerian impulse-Casimir wave activity, LWA tends to be less filamentary and emphasizes large isolated vortices inv...

Unraveling the Teleconnection Mechanisms that Induce Wintertime Temperature Anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere Continents in Response to the MJO

Abstract: Significant extratropical surface air temperature variations arise as a result of teleconnections induced by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The authors elucidate the detailed physical processes responsible for the development of temperature anomalies over Northern Hemisphere continents in response to MJO-induced heating using an intraseasonal perturbation thermodynamic equation and a wave activity tracing technique. A quantitative assessment demonstrates that surface air temperature variations are due to dynamical processes associated with a meridionally propagating Rossby wave train. Over East Asia, a local Hadley circulation causes adiabatic subsidence following MJO phase 3 to be a main driver for the warming. Meanwhile, for North America and eastern Europe, horizontal temperature advection by northerlies or southerlies is the key process for warming or cooling. A ray-tracing analysis illustrates that Rossby waves with zonal wavenumbers 2 and 3 influence the surface warming over North Amer...

Why Do Model Tropical Cyclones Grow Progressively in Size and Decay in Intensity after Reaching Maturity

Abstract: The long-term behavior of tropical cyclones in the prototype problem for cyclone intensification on an f plane is examined using a nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional numerical model. After reaching a mature intensity, the model storms progressively decay while both the inner-core size, characterized by the radius of the eyewall, and the size of the outer circulation—measured, for example, by the radius of the gale-force winds—progressively increase. This behavior is explained in terms of a boundary layer control mechanism in which the expansion of the swirling wind in the lower troposphere leads through boundary layer dynamics to an increase in the radii of forced eyewall ascent as well as to a reduction in the maximum tangential wind speed in the layer. These changes are accompanied by changes in the radial and vertical distribution of diabatic heating. As long as the aggregate effects of inner-core convection, characterized by the distribution of diabatic heating, are able to draw absolute angula...

Impacts of Updraft Size and Dimensionality on the Perturbation Pressure and Vertical Velocity in Cumulus Convection. Part I: Simple, Generalized Analytic Solutions

Abstract: This study investigates relationships between vertical velocity, perturbation pressure, updraft size, and dimensionality for cumulus convection. Generalized theoretical expressions are derived from approximate analytic solutions of the governing momentum and mass continuity equations for both two-dimensional (2D) and axisymmetric quasi-three-dimensional (3D) steady-state updrafts. These expressions relate perturbation pressure and vertical velocity to updraft radius R, height H, and thermal buoyancy. They suggest that the vertical velocity at the level of neutral buoyancy is reduced from perturbation pressure effects by factors of and in 2D and 3D, respectively, where is a nondimensional length, with somewhat different scalings lower in the updraft (α is a parameter equal to the ratio of vertical velocity horizontally averaged across the updraft to that at the updraft center). They also indicate that updrafts are weaker in 2D than 3D, all else being equal, with a difference of up to a factor of 2 ...

Intrinsic versus Practical Limits of Atmospheric Predictability and the Significance of the Butterfly Effect

Abstract: Limits of intrinsic versus practical predictability are studied through examining multiscale error growth dynamics in idealized baroclinic waves with varying degrees of convective instabilities. In the dry experiment free of moist convection, error growth is controlled primarily by baroclinic instability under which forecast accuracy is inversely proportional to the amplitude of the baroclinically unstable initial-condition error (thus the prediction can be continuously improved without limit through reducing the initial error). Under the moist environment with strong convective instability, rapid upscale growth from moist convection leads to the forecast error being increasingly less sensitive to the scale and amplitude of the initial perturbations when the initial-error amplitude is getting smaller; these diminishing returns may ultimately impose a finite-time barrier to the forecast accuracy (limit of intrinsic predictability and the so-called “butterfly effect”). However, if the initial pertur...

Ice Nucleating Particle Measurements at 241 K during Winter Months at 3580 m MSL in the Swiss Alps

Abstract: Ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations were measured at the High Altitude Research Station Jungfraujoch, Switzerland, 3580 m above mean sea level during the winter months of 2012, 2013, and 2014 with the Portable Ice Nucleation Chamber (PINC). During the measurement periods, the research station was mostly located in the free troposphere, and particle concentrations were low. At temperature T = 241 K, INP concentrations in the deposition regime [relative humidity with respect to water (RHw) = 93%] were, on average, below 1.09 per standard liter of air (stdL−1; normalized to 1013 hPa and 273 K) and 4.7 ± 8.3 stdL−1 in the condensation regime (RHw = 103%) in winter 2014. The deployment of a particle concentrator upstream of PINC decreased the limit of detection (LOD) by a factor of 3 compared to earlier measurements. The authors discuss a potential bias of INP measurements toward higher concentrations if data below the LOD are disregarded and thus recommend reporting subLOD data in future publ...

An Ensemble Approach to Investigate Tropical Cyclone Intensification in Sheared Environments. Part I: Katia (2011)

Abstract: The mechanisms responsible for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification in the presence of moderate vertical shear magnitudes are not well understood. To investigate how TCs intensify in spite of moderate shear, this study employed a 96-member ensemble generated with the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (AHW) Model. In this first part, AHW ensemble forecasts for TC Katia (2011) were evaluated when Katia was a weak tropical storm in an environment of 12 m s−1 easterly shear. The 5-day AHW forecasts for Katia were characterized by large variability in the intensity, presenting an opportunity to compare the underlying mechanisms between two subsets of members that predicted different intensity scenarios: intensification and weakening. The key difference between these two subsets was found in the lower-tropospheric moisture north of Katia (i.e., right-of-shear quadrant). With more water vapor in the lower troposphere, buoyant updrafts helped to moisten the midtroposphere and enhanced t...

Testing Atmospheric Oxidation in an Alabama Forest

Abstract: The chemical species emitted by forests create complex atmospheric oxidation chemistry and influence global atmospheric oxidation capacity and climate. The Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) provided an opportunity to test the oxidation chemistry in a forest where isoprene is the dominant biogenic volatile organic compound. Hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxyl (HO_2) radicals were two of the hundreds of atmospheric chemical species measured, as was OH reactivity (the inverse of the OH lifetime). OH was measured by laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) and by taking the difference in signals without and with an OH scavenger that was added just outside the instrument’s pinhole inlet. To test whether the chemistry at SOAS can be simulated by current model mechanisms, OH and HO_2 were evaluated with a box model using two chemical mechanisms: Master Chemical Mechanism, version 3.2 (MCMv3.2), augmented with explicit isoprene chemistry and MCMv3.3.1. Measured and modeled OH peak at about 10^6 cm^(−3) and agree well within combined uncertainties. Measured and modeled HO_2 peak at about 27 pptv and also agree well within combined uncertainties. Median OH reactivity cycled between about 11 s^(−1) at dawn and about 26 s^(−1) during midafternoon. A good test of the oxidation chemistry is the balance between OH production and loss rates using measurements; this balance was observed to within uncertainties. These SOAS results provide strong evidence that the current isoprene mechanisms are consistent with measured OH and HO_2 and, thus, capture significant aspects of the atmospheric oxidation chemistry in this isoprene-rich forest.

A Model for the Complete Radial Structure of the Tropical Cyclone Wind Field. Part II: Wind Field Variability

Abstract: Part I of this work developed a simple physical model for the complete radial structure of the low-level azimuthal wind field in a tropical cyclone that compared well with observations. However, wind field variability in the model is tied principally to its external parameters given by the maximum wind speed and the radius of maximum wind, the latter of which lacks a credible independent physical model for its variability. Here the authors explore the modes of variability that arise from the alternative specification of the model, which takes the outer radius in lieu of the radius of maximum wind. Nondimensionalization of the model reveals two theoretical modes of structural variability in absolute angular momentum that are shown to closely match observations. These two modes correspond to three modes of wind field variability associated with variations in intensity, outer storm size, and latitude. These wind field modes are demonstrated to mirror the dominant modes of variability found in nature,...

Stratospheric gravity wave fluxes and scales during DEEPWAVE

Abstract: During the Deep Propagating Gravity Wave Experiment (DEEPWAVE) project in June and July 2014, the Gulfstream V research aircraft flew 97 legs over the Southern Alps of New Zealand and 150 legs over the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean, mostly in the low stratosphere at 12.1-km altitude. Improved instrument calibration, redundant sensors, longer flight legs, energy flux estimation, and scale analysis revealed several new gravity wave properties. Over the sea, flight-level wave fluxes mostly fell below the detection threshold. Over terrain, disturbances had characteristic mountain wave attributes of positive vertical energy flux (EFz), negative zonal momentum flux, and upwind horizontal energy flux. In some cases, the fluxes changed rapidly within an 8-h flight, even though environmental conditions were nearly unchanged. The largest observed zonal momentum and vertical energy fluxes were MFx = −550 mPa and EFz = 22 W m−2, respectively.A wide variety of disturbance scales were found at flight level over...

Seasonality of the Structure and Propagation Characteristics of the MJO

Abstract: The seasonality of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is documented in observational data, and a nonlinear shallow-water model is used to help interpret some of the contrasts in MJO structure between the boreal winter season November-March (NDJFM)] and the Asian summer monsoon period June-September (JJAS)]. At upper-tropospheric levels, the flanking Rossby waves remain centered around 28 degrees N/S year-round, but they tend to be stronger in the winter hemisphere, where the climatological-mean jet stream is stronger, rendering the subtropical circulation more sensitive to forcing by a near-equatorial heat source. Amplitudes of the MJO-related deep convection and lower-tropospheric zonal wind are stronger in the summer hemisphere, where the column-integrated water vapor is larger. During NDJFM, the equatorial asymmetry is subtle: as in the annual mean, moisture convergence into swallowtail-shaped regions of enhanced deep convection is an integral part of the equatorial Rossby wave signature, and the eastward propagation is due to moistening of the air to the east of the enhanced convection by poleward moisture advection. During the Asian summer monsoon in JJAS, the convection assumes the form of northward-propagating, west-northwest-east-southeast-oriented rainbands embedded within cyclonic shear lines. These features are maintained by frictional convergence of moisture, and their northward propagation is mainly due to the presence of features in the climatological-mean fields: that is, the west-east moisture gradient over India and the Arabian Sea and the southwesterly low-level monsoon flow over the northwest Pacific.

Clausius–Clapeyron Scaling of CAPE from Analytical Solutions to RCE

Abstract: By deriving analytical solutions to radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE), it is shown mathematically that convective available potential energy (CAPE) exhibits Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling over a wide range of surface temperatures up to 310 K. Above 310 K, CAPE deviates from CC scaling and even decreases with warming at very high surface temperatures. At the surface temperature of the current tropics, the analytical solutions predict that CAPE increases at a rate of about 6%–7% per kelvin of surface warming. The analytical solutions also provide insight on how the tropopause height and stratospheric humidity change with warming. Changes in the tropopause height exhibit CC scaling, with the tropopause rising by about 400 m per kelvin of surface warming at current tropical temperatures and by about 1–2 km K−1 at surface temperatures in the range of 320–340 K. The specific humidity of the stratosphere exhibits super-CC scaling at temperatures moderately warmer than the current tropics. With a su...

Impacts of the Diurnal Radiation Cycle on the Formation, Intensity, and Structure of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Abstract: This work examines the impacts of the diurnally varying radiation cycle on the formation, intensity, structure, and track of Hurricane Edouard (2014) at different stages of its life cycle through convection-permitting simulations. During the formation stage, nighttime destabilization through radiative cooling may promote deep moist convection that eventually leads to the genesis of the storm, while a tropical cyclone fails to develop in the absence of the night phase despite a strong incipient vortex under moderately strong vertical wind shear. The nighttime radiative cooling further enhances the primary vortex before the storm undergoes rapid intensification. Thereafter, the nighttime radiative cooling mainly increases convective activities outside of the primary eyewall that lead to stronger/broader rainbands and larger storm size during the mature stage of the hurricane; there is, however, less impact on the hurricane’s peak intensity in terms of maximum 10-m surface wind speed. The control for...

A Numerical Investigation of Cumulus Thermals

Abstract: Although the steady, entraining, updraft plume is widely taken as the foundational concept of cumulus convection, past studies show that convection is typically dominated by thermals that are transient, more isotropic in shape, and possess interior vortical circulations. Here, several thousand such thermals are tracked in cloud-resolving simulations of transient growing convective events. Most tracked thermals are small (with radius R < 300 m), ascend at moderate rates (~ 2–4 m s−1), maintain an approximately constant size as they rise, and have brief (4–5 min) lifetimes, although a few are much larger, faster, and/or longer lived. They show slight vertical elongation, but few, if any, would be described as plumes. As convection deepens, thermals originate higher up, are larger, and rise faster, although radius and ascent rate are only weakly correlated among individual thermals. The main force opposing buoyancy is a nonhydrostatic pressure drag, not mixing of momentum. This drag can be expressed ...

Impacts of Updraft Size and Dimensionality on the Perturbation Pressure and Vertical Velocity in Cumulus Convection. Part II: Comparison of Theoretical and Numerical Solutions and Fully Dynamical Simulations

Abstract: This paper compares simple theoretical expressions relating vertical velocity, perturbation pressure, updraft size, and dimensionality for cumulus convection, derived in Part I, with numerical solutions of the anelastic buoyant perturbation pressure Poisson equation and vertical velocity w. A range of thermal buoyancy profiles representing shallow to deep moist convection are tested for both two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) updrafts. The theoretical expressions give similar results for w and perturbation pressure difference from updraft top to base Δp compared to the numerical solutions over a wide range of updraft radius R. The theoretical expressions are also consistent with 2D and 3D fully dynamical updraft simulations initiated by warm bubbles of varying width.Implications for nonhydrostatic modeling in the “gray zone,” with a horizontal grid spacing Δx of O(1–10) km where convection is generally underresolved, are discussed. The theoretical and numerical solutions give a scalin...

Effect of snow grain shape on snow albedo

Abstract: Radiative transfer models of snow albedo have usually assumed a spherical shape for the snow grains, using Mie theory to compute single-scattering properties. The scattering by more realistic nonspherical snow grains is less in the forward direction and more to the sides, resulting in a smaller asymmetry factor g (the mean cosine of the scattering angle). Compared to a snowpack of spherical grains with the same area-to-mass ratio, a snowpack of nonspherical grains will have a higher albedo, thin snowpacks of nonspherical grains will more effectively hide the underlying surface, and light-absorbing particles in the snowpack will be exposed to less sunlight. These effects are examined here for nonspherical snow grains with aspect ratios from 0.1 to 10. The albedo of an opaque snowpack with equidimensional (i.e., aspect ratio 1) nonspherical snow grains is higher than that with spherical snow grains by 0.032 and 0.050, for effective grain radii of 100 and 1000 μm, respectively. For an effective radiu...