Journal ArticleDOI
A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change
TLDR
In this article, a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century is presented.Abstract:
We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995–2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010–2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Sandy coastlines under threat of erosion
Michalis Vousdoukas,Roshanka Ranasinghe,Roshanka Ranasinghe,Lorenzo Mentaschi,Theocharis A. Plomaritis,Theocharis A. Plomaritis,Panagiotis Athanasiou,Arjen Luijendijk,Luc Feyen +8 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that ambient trends in shoreline dynamics, combined with coastal recession driven by sea level rise, could result in the near extinction of almost half of the world's sandy beaches by the end of the century.
Journal ArticleDOI
Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change.
Patrick L. Barnard,Li H. Erikson,Amy C. Foxgrover,Juliette Finzi Hart,Patrick W. Limber,Patrick W. Limber,Andrea C. O'Neill,Maarten van Ormondt,Sean Vitousek,Sean Vitousek,Nathan J. Wood,Maya Hayden,Jeanne M. Jones +12 more
TL;DR: A dynamic modeling approach is presented that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat) and highlights the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency.
Mohsen Taherkhani,Sean Vitousek,Sean Vitousek,Patrick L. Barnard,Neil Frazer,Tiffany R. Anderson,Charles H. Fletcher +6 more
TL;DR: The odds of exceeding critical water-level thresholds increases exponentially with sea-level rise, meaning that fixed amounts of sea- level rise in areas with a narrow range of present-day extreme water levels can double the odds of flooding, and the need for immediate planning and adaptation to mitigate the societal impacts of future flooding.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change-driven coastal erosion modelling in temperate sandy beaches: Methods and uncertainty treatment
Alexandra Toimil,Paula Camus,I. J. Losada,G. Le Cozannet,Robert J. Nicholls,Déborah Idier,Aurélie Maspataud +6 more
TL;DR: A review of the current state of the art of methods used to model climate change-induced coastal erosion focusing on how climate changerelated drivers and the associated uncertainty are considered is presented in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Blind testing of shoreline evolution models
Jennifer Montaño,Giovanni Coco,Jose A. A. Antolínez,Tomas Beuzen,Karin R. Bryan,Laura Cagigal,Laura Cagigal,Bruno Castelle,Mark Davidson,Evan B. Goldstein,Raimundo Ibaceta,Déborah Idier,B. C. Ludka,Sina Masoud-Ansari,Fernando J. Méndez,A. Brad Murray,Nathaniel G. Plant,K. M. Ratliff,Arthur Robinet,Ana Rueda,Nadia Senechal,Joshua A. Simmons,Kristen D. Splinter,Scott A. Stephens,Ian Townend,Sean Vitousek,Sean Vitousek,Kilian Vos +27 more
TL;DR: Results of a modelling competition are shown, where 19 numerical models (a mix of established shoreline models and machine learning techniques) were tested using data collected for Tairua beach, New Zealand with 18 years of daily averaged alongshore shoreline position and beach rotation (orientation) data obtained from a camera system.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
A third-generation wave model for coastal regions: 1. Model description and validation
TL;DR: In this article, a third-generation numerical wave model to compute random, short-crested waves in coastal regions with shallow water and ambient currents (Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)) has been developed, implemented, and validated.
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Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov methods: a survey of approaches and applications
Dana A. Knoll,David E. Keyes +1 more
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GFDL's CM2 global coupled climate models. Part I: Formulation and simulation characteristics
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TL;DR: In this paper, the formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described and two versions of the coupled model are described.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sea level rise as a cause of shore erosion
TL;DR: It is established fact that sea level is rising slowly and irregularly; also, it seems to be true that erosion on most seashores built up of alluvial materials greatly exceeds accretion; relationship between rise of sea level and erosion as discussed by the authors.
User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III R version 4.18
Hendrik L. Tolman,Mickael Accensi,Henrique Alves,Fabrice Ardhuin,Jean Bidlot,Nico Booij,Anne-Claire Bennis,Timothy J Campbell,Dmitry Chalikov,Arun Chawla,Jean-François Filipot,Mike Foreman,Peter A. E. M. Janssen,Fabien Leckler,Jian-Guo Li,Kevin Lind,Mark D. Orzech,R. Padilla-Hernandez,W. Erick Rogers,Arshad Rawat,Aron Roland,Mathieu Dutour Sikiric,Mark Szyszka,Barbara A. Tracy,Gerbrant P. H. van Vledder,Andre van der Westhuysen,Stefan Zieger +26 more
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