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Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach

Sendhil Mullainathan, +1 more
- 01 May 2017 - 
- Vol. 31, Iss: 2, pp 87-106
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TLDR
This work presents a way of thinking about machine learning that gives it its own place in the econometric toolbox, and aims to make them conceptually easier to use by providing a crisper understanding of how these algorithms work, where they excel, and where they can stumble.
Abstract
Machines are increasingly doing “intelligent” things. Face recognition algorithms use a large dataset of photos labeled as having a face or not to estimate a function that predicts the pre...

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Journal ArticleDOI

Predicting the Future - Big Data, Machine Learning, and Clinical Medicine.

TL;DR: The algorithms of machine learning, which can sift through vast numbers of variables looking for combinations that reliably predict outcomes, will improve prognosis, displace much of the work of radiologists and anatomical pathologists, and improve diagnostic accuracy.
Journal ArticleDOI

Artificial Intelligence (AI) : Multidisciplinary perspectives on emerging challenges, opportunities, and agenda for research, practice and policy

TL;DR: This research offers significant and timely insight to AI technology and its impact on the future of industry and society in general, whilst recognising the societal and industrial influence on pace and direction of AI development.
Posted Content

The Measure and Mismeasure of Fairness: A Critical Review of Fair Machine Learning.

TL;DR: It is argued that it is often preferable to treat similarly risky people similarly, based on the most statistically accurate estimates of risk that one can produce, rather than requiring that algorithms satisfy popular mathematical formalizations of fairness.
Journal ArticleDOI

Financial time series forecasting with deep learning : A systematic literature review: 2005–2019

TL;DR: A comprehensive literature review on DL studies for financial time series forecasting implementations and grouped them based on their DL model choices, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Deep Belief Networks (DBNs), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM).
Journal ArticleDOI

Human Decisions and Machine Predictions

TL;DR: While machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Split-Sample Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Return to Schooling

TL;DR: This paper proposed a split-sample instrumental variables (SSIV) estimator that is not biased toward OLS, but this bias can be corrected by using the estimated first-stage parameters to construct fitted values and second-stage parameter estimates in the other half sample.
Journal ArticleDOI

Jackknife instrumental variables estimation

TL;DR: In this article, the authors proposed two simple alternatives to 2SLS and limited-information-maximum-likelihood estimators for models with more instruments than endogenous regressors, which can be interpreted as instrumental variables procedures using an instrument that is independent of disturbances even in finite samples.
Proceedings ArticleDOI

Predicting Risk from Financial Reports with Regression

TL;DR: This work applies well-known regression techniques to a large corpus of freely available financial reports, constructing regression models of volatility for the period following a report, rivaling past volatility in predicting the target variable.
Journal ArticleDOI

The use of satellite data for crop yield gap analysis

TL;DR: Two simple yet useful approaches are presented that measure the persistence of yield differences between fields, which in combination with maps of average yields can be used to direct further study of specific factors.
Journal ArticleDOI

Econometric Methods for Program Evaluation

TL;DR: The main methodological frameworks of the econometrics of program evaluation are described, some of the directions along which this literature is expanding are delineated, recent developments are discussed, and specific areas where new research may be particularly fruitful are highlighted.