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Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach

Sendhil Mullainathan, +1 more
- 01 May 2017 - 
- Vol. 31, Iss: 2, pp 87-106
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TLDR
This work presents a way of thinking about machine learning that gives it its own place in the econometric toolbox, and aims to make them conceptually easier to use by providing a crisper understanding of how these algorithms work, where they excel, and where they can stumble.
Abstract
Machines are increasingly doing “intelligent” things. Face recognition algorithms use a large dataset of photos labeled as having a face or not to estimate a function that predicts the pre...

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Journal ArticleDOI

Predicting the Future - Big Data, Machine Learning, and Clinical Medicine.

TL;DR: The algorithms of machine learning, which can sift through vast numbers of variables looking for combinations that reliably predict outcomes, will improve prognosis, displace much of the work of radiologists and anatomical pathologists, and improve diagnostic accuracy.
Journal ArticleDOI

Artificial Intelligence (AI) : Multidisciplinary perspectives on emerging challenges, opportunities, and agenda for research, practice and policy

TL;DR: This research offers significant and timely insight to AI technology and its impact on the future of industry and society in general, whilst recognising the societal and industrial influence on pace and direction of AI development.
Posted Content

The Measure and Mismeasure of Fairness: A Critical Review of Fair Machine Learning.

TL;DR: It is argued that it is often preferable to treat similarly risky people similarly, based on the most statistically accurate estimates of risk that one can produce, rather than requiring that algorithms satisfy popular mathematical formalizations of fairness.
Journal ArticleDOI

Financial time series forecasting with deep learning : A systematic literature review: 2005–2019

TL;DR: A comprehensive literature review on DL studies for financial time series forecasting implementations and grouped them based on their DL model choices, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Deep Belief Networks (DBNs), Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM).
Journal ArticleDOI

Human Decisions and Machine Predictions

TL;DR: While machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Student and school performance across countries: A machine learning approach

TL;DR: Novel machine learning and statistical methods are developed and applied to analyse the determinants of students’ PISA 2015 test scores in nine countries to explore non-linearities in the associations between covariates and test scores and model interactions between school-level factors in affecting results.
ReportDOI

Measuring “Dark Matter” in Asset Pricing Models

TL;DR: The authors proposed a new quantitative measure of model fragility, based on the tendency of a model to overfit the data in sample with poor out-of-sample performance, and developed an analytically tractable asymptotic approximation to their fragility measure which they use to identify the problematic parameter combinations.
Journal ArticleDOI

Deep neural networks for choice analysis: Extracting complete economic information for interpretation

TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that deep neural networks can provide economic information as complete as classical discrete choice models (DCMs), including choice predictions, choice probabilities, market shares, substitution patterns of alternatives, social welfare, probability derivatives, elasticities, marginal rates of substitution, and heterogeneous values of time.
Report

Coming Apart? Cultural Distances in the United States over Time

TL;DR: This article analyzed temporal trends in cultural distance between groups in the US defined by income, education, gender, race, and political ideology and found that Whites and non-whites have converged somewhat on attitudes but have diverged in consumer behavior.