Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling
TLDR
In this article, the authors apply a regression analysis to an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations to show that the coupling between ocean and atmosphere shapes the distinct storm-track response to greenhouse-gas forcing in the North Atlantic region.Abstract:
A poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks in response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing has been diagnosed in climate model simulations1, 2. Explanations of this effect have focused on atmospheric dynamics3, 4, 5, 6, 7. However, in contrast to storm tracks in other regions, the North Atlantic storm track responds by strengthening and extending farther east, in particular on its southern flank8. These adjustments are associated with an intensification and extension of the eddy-driven jet towards western Europe9 and are expected to have considerable societal impacts related to a rise in storminess in Europe10, 11, 12. Here, we apply a regression analysis to an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations to show that the coupling between ocean and atmosphere shapes the distinct storm-track response to greenhouse-gas forcing in the North Atlantic region. In the ensemble of simulations we analyse, at least half of the differences between the storm-track responses of different models are associated with uncertainties in ocean circulation changes. We compare the fully coupled simulations with both the associated slab model simulations and an ocean-forced experiment with one climate model to establish causality. We conclude that uncertainties in the response of the North Atlantic storm track to anthropogenic emissions could be reduced through tighter constraints on the future ocean circulation.read more
Citations
More filters
Book Chapter
Chapter 12 - Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility
Matthew Collins,R. Knutti,Julie M. Arblaster,J.-L. Dufresne,T. Fichefet,P. Friedlingstein,Xuejie Gao,William J. Gutowski,T. Johns,Gerhard Krinner,Mxolisi Shongwe,C. Tebaldi,A.J. Weaver,M. F. Wehner +13 more
TL;DR: The authors assesses long-term projections of climate change for the end of the 21st century and beyond, where the forced signal depends on the scenario and is typically larger than the internal variability of the climate system.
Journal ArticleDOI
Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past 5,200 years
TL;DR: In this article, a 5,200-year-long lake sediment record was used to reconstruct the circulation patterns associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Arctic and northern Europe.
Journal ArticleDOI
Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review
Martha W. Buckley,John Marshall +1 more
TL;DR: A review about the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), its mean structure, temporal variability, controlling mechanisms, and role in the coupled climate system can be found in this article.
Journal ArticleDOI
North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers
TL;DR: Evidence suggests that an anomalous inflow of subtropical waters driven by atmospheric changes, multidecadal natural ocean variability and a long-term increase in the North Atlantic's upper ocean heat content since the 1950s all contributed to a warming of the subpolar North Atlantic.
References
More filters
Climate change 2007: the physical science basis
Susan Solomon,Dahe Qin,Martin R. Manning,Melinda Marquis,Kristen Averyt,Melinda M.B. Tignor,H. L. Miller,Z. Chen +7 more
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Book Chapter
Global climate projections
Gerald A. Meehl,Thomas F. Stocker,William D. Collins,Pierre Friedlingstein,T. Gaye,Jonathan M. Gregory,A. Kitoh,Reto Knutti,James M. Murphy,Akira Noda,Sarah C. B. Raper,I. G. Watterson,Andrew J. Weaver,Z. C. Zhao +13 more
Journal ArticleDOI
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate
TL;DR: In this article, a consistent poleward and upward shift and intensification of the storm tracks is found in an ensemble of 21st century climate simulations performed by 15 coupled climate models.
Journal ArticleDOI
Investigating the Causes of the Response of the Thermohaline Circulation to Past and Future Climate Changes
Ronald J. Stouffer,Jianjun Yin,Jonathan M. Gregory,Jonathan M. Gregory,Keith W. Dixon,Michael J. Spelman,William J. Hurlin,Andrew J. Weaver,Michael Eby,Gregory M. Flato,Hiroyasu Hasumi,Aixue Hu,Johann H. Jungclaus,Igor Kamenkovich,Anders Levermann,Marisa Montoya,Shingo Murakami,Susanne Nawrath,Akira Oka,W. R. Peltier,Daniel Y. Robitaille,Andrei P. Sokolov,G. Vettoretti,S. L. Weber +23 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compare the performance of different models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) to document and improve understanding of the causes of wide variations in the modeled THC response.
Related Papers (5)
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dick Dee,S. Uppala,Adrian Simmons,Paul Berrisford,Paul Poli,Shinya Kobayashi,Ulf Andrae,Magdalena Balmaseda,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bauer,Peter Bechtold,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,C. Delsol,Rossana Dragani,Manuel Fuentes,Alan J. Geer,Leopold Haimberger,Sean Healy,Hans Hersbach,Elías Hólm,Lars Isaksen,P. Kallberg,Martin Köhler,Marco Matricardi,A. P. McNally,B. M. Monge-Sanz,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,B.-K. Park,Carole Peubey,P. de Rosnay,Christina Tavolato,Jean-Noël Thépaut,Frederic Vitart +35 more
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
Eugenia Kalnay,Masao Kanamitsu,Robert Kistler,William D. Collins,D.G. Deaven,L. S. Gandin,M. Iredell,Suranjana Saha,Glenn H. White,John S. Woollen,Yuejian Zhu,Muthuvel Chelliah,Wesley Ebisuzaki,Wayne Higgins,John E. Janowiak,Kingtse C. Mo,Chester F. Ropelewski,Julian X. L. Wang,Ants Leetmaa,Richard W. Reynolds,Roy L. Jenne,Dennis Joseph +21 more