Towards Reliable Extreme Weather and Climate Event Attribution
Omar Bellprat,Omar Bellprat,Virginie Guemas,Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,Markus G. Donat,Markus G. Donat +5 more
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TLDR
It is shown, exploiting advanced correction techniques from the weather forecasting field, that correcting properly for model probabilities alters the attributable risk of extreme events to climate change.Abstract:
Climate change is shaping extreme heat and rain. To what degree human activity has increased the risk of high impact events is of high public concern and still heavily debated. Recent studies attributed single extreme events to climate change by comparing climate model experiments where the influence of an external driver can be included or artificially suppressed. Many of these results however did not properly account for model errors in simulating the probabilities of extreme event occurrences. Here we show, exploiting advanced correction techniques from the weather forecasting field, that correcting properly for model probabilities alters the attributable risk of extreme events to climate change. This study illustrates the need to correct for this type of model error in order to provide trustworthy assessments of climate change impacts.read more
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1 km monthly temperature and precipitation dataset for China from 1901 to 2017
TL;DR: Peng et al. as mentioned in this paper presented a 0.5 × 1.5 cm dataset with a bilinear interpolation method for air temperatures at 2 cm (minimum, maximum, and mean proxy monthly temperatures, TMPs) and precipitation (PRE) for China.
Journal ArticleDOI
Projected Marine Heatwaves in the 21st Century and the Potential for Ecological Impact
Eric C. J. Oliver,Michael T. Burrows,Markus G. Donat,Alex Sen Gupta,Alex Sen Gupta,Lisa V. Alexander,Lisa V. Alexander,Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick,Sarah E. Perkins-Kirkpatrick,Jessica A. Benthuysen,Alistair J. Hobday,Neil J. Holbrook,Neil J. Holbrook,Pippa J. Moore,Mads S. Thomsen,Thomas Wernberg,Dan A. Smale +16 more
TL;DR: In this paper, future changes in marine heatwave (MHW) to the end of the 21st century, as simulated by the CMIP5 global climate model projections, are estimated, with significant increases in MHW intensity and count of annual MHW days.
Journal ArticleDOI
Increased future occurrences of the exceptional 2018-2019 Central European drought under global warming
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that the occurrence of the 2018–2019 (consecutive) summer drought is unprecedented in the last 250 years, and its combined impact on the growing season vegetation activities is stronger compared to the 2003 European drought.
Journal ArticleDOI
Soil microbial community responses to climate extremes: resistance, resilience and transitions to alternative states
TL;DR: This work synthesizes emerging understanding of the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that influence the resistance and resilience of soil microbial communities to climate extremes, with a focus on drought, and identifies drivers that might trigger abrupt changes to alternative states.
Journal ArticleDOI
A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses
Sjoukje Philip,Sarah F. Kew,Geert Jan van Oldenborgh,Friederike E. L. Otto,Robert Vautard,Karin van der Wiel,Andrew D. King,Fraser C. Lott,Julie Arrighi,Roop Singh,Maarten van Aalst +10 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a protocol that was developed by the World Weather Attribution group over the course of the last 4 years and about two dozen rapid and slow attribution studies covering warm, cold, wet, dry, and stormy extremes.
References
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TL;DR: In this paper, an updated gridded climate dataset (referred to as CRU TS3.10) from monthly observations at meteorological stations across the world's land areas is presented.
Book
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