Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

About: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory is a facility organization based out in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate model & Climate change. The organization has 525 authors who have published 2432 publications receiving 264545 citations. The organization is also known as: GFDL.

Radiative forcing and climate response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases

Abstract: It is widely expected that global emissions of atmospheric aerosols and their precursors will decrease strongly throughout the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health For instance, global emissions of aerosols and their precursors are projected to decrease by as much as 80 % by the year 2100, according to the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios The removal of aerosols will cause unintended climate consequences, including an unmasking of global warming from long-lived greenhouse gases We use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Climate Model version 3 (GFDL CM3) to simulate future climate over the 21st century with and without the aerosol emission changes projected by each of the RCPs in order to isolate the radiative forcing and climate response resulting from the aerosol reductions We find that the projected global radiative forcing and climate response due to aerosol decreases do not vary significantly across the four RCPs by 2100, although there is some mid-century variation, especially in cloud droplet effective radius, that closely follows the RCP emissions and energy consumption projections Up to 1 W m−2 of radiative forcing may be unmasked globally from 2005 to 2100 due to reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, leading to average global temperature increases up to 1 K and global precipitation rate increases up to 009 mm day−1 However, when using a version of CM3 with reduced present-day aerosol radiative forcing (−10 W m−2), the global temperature increase for RCP85 is about 05 K, with similar magnitude decreases in other climate response parameters as well Regionally and locally, climate impacts can be much larger than the global mean, with a 21 K warming projected over China, Japan, and Korea due to the reduced aerosol emissions in RCP85, as well as nearly a 02 mm day−1 precipitation increase, a 7 g m−2 LWP decrease, and a 2 μm increase in cloud droplet effective radius Future aerosol decreases could be responsible for 30–40 % of total climate warming (or 10–20 % with weaker aerosol forcing) by 2100 in East Asia, even under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP85) The expected unmasking of global warming caused by aerosol reductions will require more aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation policies than anticipated in order to meet desired climate targets

Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate

Abstract: Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping) make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal) management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change) may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections) and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere). The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately benefit management decisions across time-scales, further promoting the resilience of marine mammal populations.

A re-examination of the projected subtropical precipitation decline

Abstract: Projected decreases in subtropical rainfall have previously been attributed to enhanced moisture transport or atmospheric circulation changes. New research shows that neither is the key mechanism, and instead greater land–sea temperature contrast in response to direct radiative forcing dominates.

On the life cycle of a stratospheric intrusion and its dispersion into polluted warm conveyor belts

Abstract: [1] The aircraft-based 2002 Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation experiment intercepted and chemically analyzed pollution plumes transported from Asia to the western United States. The research flight on 10–11 May 2002 detected mixing between polluted and stratospheric air at midtropospheric levels above the California coast. This study uses a Lagrangian domain-filling trajectory technique to illustrate that this event was the result of mixing between two warm conveyor belts (WCB) containing Asian pollution and the remnants of a deep tropopause fold from a downstream midlatitude cyclone (referred to as the stratospheric component of a dry airstream or SCDA). Advection of the trajectory particles shows how the SCDA decayed over 7.5 days. One component dispersed into a downstream WCB, while another component descended into the lower troposphere and became entrained by an upwind WCB. After 7.5 days of transport 22% of the SCDA mass was transported into the troposphere. The portions of the SCDA that penetrated to the lowest altitudes had the greatest likelihood of being transported into the troposphere. For example, over 90% of the SCDA at altitudes below the 600 hPa level was transported to the troposphere, but none of the mass at the 200 hPa level was exchanged. More than half of the exchange occurred during the first 48 hours as the deepest portions of the tropopause fold decayed over the Pacific. The rest of the exchange occurred over the following 5.5 days as the remnants of the SCDA sheared apart along the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and became entrained into subsequent tropopause folds and vortex breakaway features. Stratosphere to troposphere exchange resulted in the transport of 0.5 Tg of stratospheric ozone to the troposphere during the 7.5 day study period. Roughly half of the SCDA particles that entered the troposphere dispersed into the upwind and downwind WCBs.

Modulation of Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern Pacific by the Intraseasonal Variability Simulated in an AGCM

Abstract: This study illustrates that observed modulations of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) by large-scale intraseasonal variability (ISV) are well represented in a recently developed high-resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) at the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km. Considering the intrinsic predictability of the ISV of 2–4 weeks, this analysis thus has significant implications for dynamically based TC predictions on intraseasonal time scales. Analysis indicates that the genesis potential index (GPI) anomalies associated with the ISV can generally well depict ISV modulations of EPAC TC genesis in both observations and HiRAM simulations. Further investigation is conducted to explore the key factors associated with ISV modulation of TC activity based on an analysis of budget terms of the observed GPI during the ISV life cycle. It is found that, while relative roles of GPI factors are dependent on ISV phase and locatio...