Institution
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Facility•Princeton, New Jersey, United States•
About: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory is a facility organization based out in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate model & Climate change. The organization has 525 authors who have published 2432 publications receiving 264545 citations. The organization is also known as: GFDL.
Topics: Climate model, Climate change, Sea surface temperature, Tropical cyclone, Thermohaline circulation
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
More filters
••
Met Office1, German Aerospace Center2, University of Toronto3, Johns Hopkins University4, National Institute for Environmental Studies5, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory6, Max Planck Society7, University of Leeds8, San Jose State University9, National Center for Atmospheric Research10, University of Maryland, Baltimore County11, Goddard Space Flight Center12, Environment Canada13, ETH Zurich14, United States Naval Research Laboratory15, Meteorological Service of Canada16
TL;DR: The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry-climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 6 0.07 K decade 21 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 K decade 21 at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twentyfirst century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces a westward acceleration of the lower-stratospheric wind over the Antarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson
275 citations
••
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory1, Imperial College London2, Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory3, National Center for Atmospheric Research4, Princeton University5, University of California, Irvine6, Lancaster University7, Earth System Research Laboratory8, University of Colorado Boulder9, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory10, ENEA11, University of Reading12, Met Office13, University of Oslo14, University of Edinburgh15, German Aerospace Center16, Goddard Institute for Space Studies17, Centre national de la recherche scientifique18, National Institute for Environmental Studies19, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute20, Environment Canada21, Goddard Space Flight Center22, Nagoya University23, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research24
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980.
Abstract: . We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change in global mean tropospheric CO and NOx burdens (ΔCO/ΔNOx, approximately represents changes in OH sinks versus changes in OH sources) in the models, pointing to a need for better constraints on natural precursor emissions and on the chemical mechanisms in the current generation of chemistry-climate models. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH (3.5 ± 2.2%) leads to a 4.3 ± 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present-day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about four months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, we analysed attribution experiments performed by a subset of models relative to 2000 conditions with only one precursor at a time set to 1860 levels. We find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 ± 12.2% in response to preindustrial to present-day anthropogenic NOx emission increases, and decreased by 17.3 ± 2.3%, 7.6 ± 1.5%, and 3.1 ± 3.0% due to methane burden, and anthropogenic CO, and NMVOC emissions increases, respectively.
274 citations
••
German Aerospace Center1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2, Bureau of Meteorology3, ENEA4, ETH Zurich5, Earth System Research Laboratory6, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences7, Lancaster University8, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory9, Met Office10, University of Reading11, Goddard Institute for Space Studies12, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory13, Nagoya University14, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology15
TL;DR: In this article, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP).
Abstract: Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.
272 citations
••
University of California, San Diego1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory3, University of Exeter4, University of California, Los Angeles5, University of Reading6, University of Hawaii at Manoa7, Princeton University8, Centre national de la recherche scientifique9, Columbia University10, University of Tokyo11
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider recent advances in understanding of regional climate change, critically discuss outstanding issues, and recommend targets for future research, and conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.
Abstract: This Review considers recent advances in our understanding of regional climate change, critically discusses outstanding issues, and recommends targets for future research. Regional information on climate change is urgently needed but often deemed unreliable. To achieve credible regional climate projections, it is essential to understand underlying physical processes, reduce model biases and evaluate their impact on projections, and adequately account for internal variability. In the tropics, where atmospheric internal variability is small compared with the forced change, advancing our understanding of the coupling between long-term changes in upper-ocean temperature and the atmospheric circulation will help most to narrow the uncertainty. In the extratropics, relatively large internal variability introduces substantial uncertainty, while exacerbating risks associated with extreme events. Large ensemble simulations are essential to estimate the probabilistic distribution of climate change on regional scales. Regional models inherit atmospheric circulation uncertainty from global models and do not automatically solve the problem of regional climate change. We conclude that the current priority is to understand and reduce uncertainties on scales greater than 100 km to aid assessments at finer scales.
272 citations
••
TL;DR: In this paper, a coupled climate model with poleward-intensified westerly winds simulates significantly higher storage of heat and anthropogenic carbon dioxide by the Southern Ocean in the future when compared with the storage in a model with initially weaker, equatorwardbiased westerlies.
Abstract: A coupled climate model with poleward-intensified westerly winds simulates significantly higher storage of heat and anthropogenic carbon dioxide by the Southern Ocean in the future when compared with the storage in a model with initially weaker, equatorward-biased westerlies. This difference results from the larger outcrop area of the dense waters around Antarctica and more vigorous divergence, which remains robust even as rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels induce warming that reduces the density of surface waters in the Southern Ocean. These results imply that the impact of warming on the stratification of the global ocean may be reduced by the poleward intensification of the westerlies, allowing the ocean to remove additional heat and anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
271 citations
Authors
Showing all 546 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Alan Robock | 90 | 346 | 27022 |
Isaac M. Held | 88 | 215 | 37064 |
Larry W. Horowitz | 85 | 253 | 28706 |
Gabriel A. Vecchi | 84 | 282 | 31597 |
Toshio Yamagata | 83 | 294 | 27890 |
Li Zhang | 81 | 727 | 26684 |
Ronald J. Stouffer | 80 | 153 | 56412 |
David Crisp | 79 | 328 | 18440 |
Thomas L. Delworth | 76 | 178 | 26109 |
Syukuro Manabe | 76 | 129 | 25366 |
Stephen M. Griffies | 68 | 202 | 18065 |
John Wilson | 66 | 487 | 22041 |
Arlene M. Fiore | 65 | 168 | 17368 |
John P. Dunne | 64 | 189 | 17987 |
Raymond T. Pierrehumbert | 62 | 192 | 14685 |