Institution
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Facility•Princeton, New Jersey, United States•
About: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory is a facility organization based out in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate model & Climate change. The organization has 525 authors who have published 2432 publications receiving 264545 citations. The organization is also known as: GFDL.
Topics: Climate model, Climate change, Sea surface temperature, Tropical cyclone, Thermohaline circulation
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: This study shows that the proportion of tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify recently increased in the Atlantic basin, and that this trend is likely due to anthropogenic forcing.
Abstract: Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale. Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are associated with the highest forecast errors and the strongest storms. This study shows that the proportion of tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify recently increased in the Atlantic basin, and that this trend is likely due to anthropogenic forcing.
169 citations
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Met Office1, University of Reading2, University of Cambridge3, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences4, University of Toronto5, Goddard Space Flight Center6, University of Oxford7, Earth System Research Laboratory8, National Institute for Environmental Studies9, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory10, Max Planck Society11, University of Leeds12, National Center for Atmospheric Research13, Centre national de la recherche scientifique14, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research15, Environment Canada16, Meteorological Service of Canada17, Johns Hopkins University18
TL;DR: In this paper, the stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry-climate models is evaluated and a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH).
Abstract: The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry-climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, "metrics" indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long-standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability.
169 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that a poleward wind shift at the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula can produce an intense warming of subsurface coastal waters that exceeds 2°C at 200-700m depth.
Abstract: The southern hemisphere westerly winds have been strengthening and shifting poleward since the 1950s. This wind trend is projected to persist under continued anthropogenic forcing, but the impact of the changing winds on Antarctic coastal heat distribution remains poorly understood. Here we show that a poleward wind shift at the latitudes of the Antarctic Peninsula can produce an intense warming of subsurface coastal waters that exceeds 2°C at 200–700 m depth. The model simulated warming results from a rapid advective heat flux induced by weakened near-shore Ekman pumping and is associated with weakened coastal currents. This analysis shows that anthropogenically induced wind changes can dramatically increase the temperature of ocean water at ice sheet grounding lines and at the base of floating ice shelves around Antarctica, with potentially significant ramifications for global sea level rise.
168 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the equilibrium general circulation model (GCM) response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western North Atlantic region is studied, where a coarse resolution GCM, with realistic lower boundary conditions including topography and climatological SST distribution, is integrated in perpetual January and perpetual October modes.
Abstract: The equilibrium general circulation model (GCM) response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western North Atlantic region is studied. A coarse resolution GCM, with realistic lower boundary conditions including topography and climatological SST distribution, is integrated in perpetual January and perpetual October modes, distinguished from one another by the strength of the midlatitude westerlies. An SST anomaly with a maximum of 4°C is added to the climatological SST distribution of the model with both positive and negative polarity. These anomaly runs are compared to one another, and to a control integration, to determine the atmospheric response. In all cases warming (cooling) of the midlatitude ocean surface yields a warming (cooling) of the atmosphere over and to the east of the SST anomaly center. The atmospheric temperature change is largest near the surface and decreases upward. Consistent with this simple thermal response, the geopotential height field displays a baroclinic...
168 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a recently developed atmospheric general circulation model (AM2) to investigate the drying trend of the Sahel region of Africa in the latter half of the 20th century.
Abstract: [1] The Sahel region of Africa underwent a pronounced interdecadal drying trend in the latter half of the 20th century. In order to investigate this drying trend, several ensembles of numerical experiments are conducted using a recently developed atmospheric general circulation model (AM2, developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory). When the model is forced with the time series of observed SSTs and sea ice from 1950 to 2000, it successfully reproduces the observed interdecadal variability of Sahelian rainfall. Additional experiments are used to estimate the separate contributions to Sahel drought from SST anomalies in various ocean basins. In these, SST anomalies are applied only in the tropics, or only in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans separately. Forcing from the tropical oceans is dominant in driving the Sahelian rainfall trend. The response of Sahel rainfall to a general warming of the tropical oceans suggests a possible link to greenhouse gas-induced climate change.
167 citations
Authors
Showing all 546 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Alan Robock | 90 | 346 | 27022 |
Isaac M. Held | 88 | 215 | 37064 |
Larry W. Horowitz | 85 | 253 | 28706 |
Gabriel A. Vecchi | 84 | 282 | 31597 |
Toshio Yamagata | 83 | 294 | 27890 |
Li Zhang | 81 | 727 | 26684 |
Ronald J. Stouffer | 80 | 153 | 56412 |
David Crisp | 79 | 328 | 18440 |
Thomas L. Delworth | 76 | 178 | 26109 |
Syukuro Manabe | 76 | 129 | 25366 |
Stephen M. Griffies | 68 | 202 | 18065 |
John Wilson | 66 | 487 | 22041 |
Arlene M. Fiore | 65 | 168 | 17368 |
John P. Dunne | 64 | 189 | 17987 |
Raymond T. Pierrehumbert | 62 | 192 | 14685 |