Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

About: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory is a facility organization based out in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate model & Climate change. The organization has 525 authors who have published 2432 publications receiving 264545 citations. The organization is also known as: GFDL.

Past, present, and future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and aerosols: Methodology, ozone evaluation, and sensitivity to aerosol wet removal

Abstract: [1] Tropospheric ozone and aerosols are radiatively important trace species, whose concentrations have increased dramatically since preindustrial times and are projected to continue to change in the future. The evolution of ozone and aerosol concentrations from 1860 to 2100 is simulated on the basis of estimated historical emissions and four different future emission scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2, A1B, B1, and A1FI). The simulations suggest that the tropospheric burden of ozone has increased by 50% and sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol burdens have increased by factors of 3 and 6, respectively, since preindustrial times. Projected ozone changes over the next century range from −6% to +43%, depending on the emissions scenario. Sulfate concentrations are projected to increase for the next several decades but then to decrease by 2100 to 4–45% below their 2000 values. Simulated ozone concentrations agree well with present-day observations and recent trends. Preindustrial surface concentrations of ozone are shown to be sensitive to the assumed anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, but in all cases they overestimate the few available measurements from that era. Simulated tropospheric burdens of aerosols are sensitive by up to a factor of 2 to assumptions about the rate of aerosol wet deposition in the model. The concentrations of ozone and aerosols produced by this study are provided as climate-forcing agents in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model to estimate their effects on climate. The aerosol distributions from this study and the resulting optical depths are evaluated in a companion paper by P. Ginoux et al. (2006).

Response of a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Sensitivity to the Rate of Increase

Abstract: The influence of differing rates of increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration on the climatic response is investigated using a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Five transient integrations are performed each using a different constant exponential rate of CO2 increase ranging from 4% yr−1 to 0.25% yr−1. By the time of CO2 doubling, the surface air temperature response in all the transient integrations is locally more than 50% and globally more than 35% of the equilibrium response. The land–sea contrast in the warming, which is evident in the equilibrium results, is larger in all the transient experiments. The land–sea difference in the response increases with the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. The thermohaline circulation (THC) weakens in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration in all the transient integrations, confirming earlier work. The results also indicate that the slower the rate of increase, the larger the weakening of the THC by the time of doubling. Two...

Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries

Abstract: Although there has been considerable research on the impacts of individual changes in water temperature, carbonate chemistry, and other variables on species, cumulative impacts of these effects have rarely been studied. Here, we simulate changes in (i) primary productivity, (ii) species range shifts, (iii) zooplankton community size structure, (iv) ocean acidification, and (v) ocean deoxygenation both individually and together using five Ecopath with Ecosim models of the northeast Pacific Ocean. We used a standardized method to represent climate effects that relied on time-series forcing functions: annual multipliers of species productivity. We focused on changes in fisheries landings, biomass, and ecosystem characteristics (diversity and trophic indices). Fisheries landings generally declined in response to cumulative effects and often to a greater degree than would have been predicted based on individual climate effects, indicating possible synergies. Total biomass of fished and unfished functional groups displayed a decline, though unfished groups were affected less negatively. Some functional groups (e.g. pelagic and demersal invertebrates) were predicted to respond favourably under cumulative effects in some regions. The challenge of predicting climate change impacts must be met if we are to adapt and manage rapidly changing marine ecosystems in the 21st century.