Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

About: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory is a facility organization based out in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate model & Climate change. The organization has 525 authors who have published 2432 publications receiving 264545 citations. The organization is also known as: GFDL.

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Abstract: An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable in observations and whether any changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate ch...

Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on North Pacific climate variability

Abstract: (1) In this paper, we found that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can contribute to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), especially the component of the PDO that is linearly independent of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), i.e. the North Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation (NPMO), and the associated Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern. Using a hybrid version of the GFDL CM2.1 climate model, we show that the AMO provides a source of multidecadal variability to the North Pacific, and needs to be considered along with other forcings for North Pacific climate change. The lagged North Pacific response to the North Atlantic forcing is through atmospheric teleconnections and reinforced by oceanic dynamics and positive air-sea feedback over the North Pacific. The results indicate that a North Pacific regime shift, opposite to the 1976-77 shift, might occur now a decade after the switch of the observed AMO to a positive phase around 1995. Citation: Zhang, R., and T. L. Delworth (2007), Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on North Pacific climate variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L23708,

On the Observed Annual Cycle in the Ocean-Atmosphere Heat Balance Over the Northern Hemisphere

Abstract: Based on the best presently available satellite radiation, atmospheric and oceanic data sets, the long-term mean heat balance of the earth and its normal seasonal variation are investigated over the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitative estimates for the various flux and storage terms in the atmospheric and terrestrial branches of the heat balance are given for 10-deg-wide latitude belts and for each calendar month. The results are presented in both graphical and tabular form. As was known before, the storage of heat in the oceans is found to dominate the energy storage in the combined atmosphere-ocean-land-cryosphere system. In the tropics, large changes in oceanic heat storage are found in the 10 N-20 N belt with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer. The main new finding of this study is that the inferred oceanic heat transports appear to undergo very large seasonal variations especially in the tropics.

Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

Abstract: . Anthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. Here we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) that were forced under the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Projections are compared to those from the previous generation (CMIP5) forced under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). A total of 10 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. Under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080–2099 mean values relative to 1870–1899) ± the inter-model SD in sea surface temperature, surface pH, subsurface (100–600 m ) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0–100 m ) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is + 3.47 ± 0.78 ∘C , - 0.44 ± 0.005 , - 13.27 ± 5.28 , - 1.06 ± 0.45 mmol m−3 and - 2.99 ± 9.11 %, respectively. Under the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are + 1.42 ± 0.32 ∘C , - 0.16 ± 0.002 , - 6.36 ± 2.92 , - 0.52 ± 0.23 mmol m−3 , and - 0.56 ± 4.12 %. Projected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. The ESMs in CMIP6 generally project greater warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than those from CMIP5 under comparable radiative forcing. The increased projected ocean warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models relative to those of CMIP5. This enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in CMIP6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. The greater surface acidification in CMIP6 is primarily a consequence of the SSPs having higher associated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than their RCP analogues for the same radiative forcing. We find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an increase in net primary production inter-model uncertainties in CMIP6, as compared to CMIP5.