Institution
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Facility•Princeton, New Jersey, United States•
About: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory is a facility organization based out in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate model & Climate change. The organization has 525 authors who have published 2432 publications receiving 264545 citations. The organization is also known as: GFDL.
Topics: Climate model, Climate change, Sea surface temperature, Tropical cyclone, Thermohaline circulation
Papers published on a yearly basis
Papers
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TL;DR: This article explored the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone 'potential intensity' and found that long-term changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of global warming; regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa.
Abstract: The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming is widely debated. It is often assumed that warmer sea surface temperatures provide a more favourable environment for the development and intensification of tropical cyclones, but cyclone genesis and intensity are also affected by the vertical thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere. Here we use climate models and observational reconstructions to explore the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone 'potential intensity'--a measure that provides an upper bound on cyclone intensity and can also reflect the likelihood of cyclone development. We find that changes in local sea surface temperature are inadequate for characterizing even the sign of changes in potential intensity, but that long-term changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of warming; regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa. We use this relationship to reconstruct changes in potential intensity over the twentieth century from observational reconstructions of sea surface temperature. We find that, even though tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at a historical high, Atlantic potential intensity probably peaked in the 1930s and 1950s, and recent values are near the historical average. Our results indicate that--per unit local sea surface temperature change--the response of tropical cyclone activity to natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature, may be larger than the response to the more uniform patterns of greenhouse-gas-induced warming.
399 citations
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University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill1, United States Environmental Protection Agency2, National Center for Atmospheric Research3, Goddard Institute for Space Studies4, University of Reading5, University of Oslo6, Met Office7, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory8, National Institute for Environmental Studies9, Nagoya University10, Kyushu University11, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory12, ENEA13, University of Edinburgh14, German Aerospace Center15, Centre national de la recherche scientifique16, Environment Canada17, Goddard Space Flight Center18, Universities Space Research Association19, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research20
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry?climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change.
Abstract: Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry?climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration?response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470?000 (95% confidence interval, 140?000 to 900?000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (?20?000 to 27?000) deaths yr?1 due to ozone and 2200 (?350?000 to 140?000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality.
397 citations
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German Aerospace Center1, University of Bremen2, University of Exeter3, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory4, University of New South Wales5, University of California, Berkeley6, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory7, University of California, Los Angeles8, University of Tennessee9, Oak Ridge National Laboratory10, University of Maryland, College Park11, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research12, Met Office13, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory14, ETH Zurich15, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences16, National Center for Atmospheric Research17, Goddard Institute for Space Studies18, University of Arizona19
TL;DR: The authors discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting.
Abstract: Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.
397 citations
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Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory1, University of Wisconsin System2, Max Planck Society3, Lund University4, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory5, University of Oregon6, Centre national de la recherche scientifique7, University of Bremen8, Yonsei University9, Bureau of Meteorology10, University of Toronto11, Pennsylvania State University12, Goddard Institute for Space Studies13, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign14, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation15, National Center for Atmospheric Research16, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration17
TL;DR: This article showed that the magnitude of the monsoon increases over northern Africa are underestimated by all the models, despite qualitative agreement with paleoecological estimates of biome shifts, despite quantitative evidence that biome shifts are correlated with changes in the distribution of monsoon rainfall.
Abstract: Amplification of the northern hemisphere seasonal cycle of insolation during the mid-Holocene causes a northward shift of the main regions of monsoon precipitation over Africa and India in all 18 simulations conducted for the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Differences among simulations are related to differences in model formulation. Despite qualitative agreement with paleoecological estimates of biome shifts, the magnitude of the monsoon increases over northern Africa are underestimated by all the models.
396 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, a general circulation model for the upper ocean was developed, based on the primitive equation model of Bryan and Cox with the additions, of optional usage, of the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme and horizontal nonlinear viscosity.
Abstract: A general circulation model (GCM) of the ocean that emphasizes the simulation of the upper ocean has been developed. This emphasis is in keeping with its future intent, that of an air-sea coupled model. The basic model is the primitive equation model of Bryan and Cox with the additions, of optional usage, of the Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme and horizontal nonlinear viscosity. These modifications are intended to improve the upper ocean simulations, particularly sea surface temperature and heat content. The horizontal grid spacing is 1° latitude × 1° longitude and is global in domain. The equatorial region between 10°N and 10°S is further refined in the north–south direction to ⅓° resolution. There are 12 vertical levels, with six levels in the top 70 m. The model incorporates varying bottom topography. Prior to coupling the ocean model to an atmospheric GCM, experiments have been carried out to determine the ocean GCM's performance using atmospheric forcing from observed data....
395 citations
Authors
Showing all 546 results
Name | H-index | Papers | Citations |
---|---|---|---|
Alan Robock | 90 | 346 | 27022 |
Isaac M. Held | 88 | 215 | 37064 |
Larry W. Horowitz | 85 | 253 | 28706 |
Gabriel A. Vecchi | 84 | 282 | 31597 |
Toshio Yamagata | 83 | 294 | 27890 |
Li Zhang | 81 | 727 | 26684 |
Ronald J. Stouffer | 80 | 153 | 56412 |
David Crisp | 79 | 328 | 18440 |
Thomas L. Delworth | 76 | 178 | 26109 |
Syukuro Manabe | 76 | 129 | 25366 |
Stephen M. Griffies | 68 | 202 | 18065 |
John Wilson | 66 | 487 | 22041 |
Arlene M. Fiore | 65 | 168 | 17368 |
John P. Dunne | 64 | 189 | 17987 |
Raymond T. Pierrehumbert | 62 | 192 | 14685 |