Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

About: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory is a facility organization based out in Princeton, New Jersey, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Climate model & Climate change. The organization has 525 authors who have published 2432 publications receiving 264545 citations. The organization is also known as: GFDL.

The Termination of the 1997–98 El Niño. Part I: Mechanisms of Oceanic Change*

Abstract: The 1997–98 El Nino was both unusually strong and terminated unusually. Warm eastern equatorial Pacific (EEqP) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) exceeded 4°C at the event peak and lasted well into boreal spring of 1998, even though subsurface temperatures began cooling in December 1997. The oceanic processes that controlled this unusual termination are explored here and can be characterized by three features: (i) eastward propagating equatorial Pacific thermoclin e( Ztc) shoaling beginning in the central Pacific in November 1997; (ii) persistent warm EEqP SSTA between December 1997 and May 1998, despite strong EEqP Ztc shoaling (and subsurface cooling); and (iii) an abrupt cooling of EEqP SST Ai n early May 1998 that exceeded 4°C within two weeks. It is shown here that these changes can be understood in terms of the oceanic response to changes to the meridional structure of the near-equatorial zonal wind field. Equatorial near-date-line westerly wind anomalies greatly decreased in late 1997, associated with a southward shift of convective and wind anomalies. In the EEqP, equatorial easterlies disappeared (reappeared) in late January (early May) 1998, driving the springtime extension (abrupt termination) of this El Nino event. The authors suggest that the wind changes arise from fundamentally meridional processes and are tied to the annual cycle of insolation.

Vegetation feedbacks during drought exacerbate ozone air pollution extremes in Europe

Abstract: Reducing surface ozone to meet the European Union’s target for human health has proven challenging despite stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions over recent decades. The most extreme ozone pollution episodes are linked to heatwaves and droughts, which are increasing in frequency and intensity over Europe, with severe impacts on natural and human systems. Here, we use observations and Earth system model simulations for the period 1960–2018 to show that ecosystem–atmosphere interactions, especially reduced ozone removal by water-stressed vegetation, exacerbate ozone air pollution over Europe. These vegetation feedbacks worsen peak ozone episodes during European mega-droughts, such as the 2003 event, offsetting much of the air quality improvements gained from regional emissions controls. As the frequency of hot and dry summers is expected to increase over the coming decades, this climate penalty could be severe and therefore needs to be considered when designing clean air policy in the European Union. Despite strict controls on precursor emissions, ozone air pollution has not decreased over Europe in recent decades. This is largely attributed to water-stressed vegetation; during heatwaves and drought, plants are less effective at ozone removal via stomata, worsening peak ozone pollution episodes.

AeroCom phase III multi-model evaluation of the aerosol life cycle and optical properties using ground- and space-based remote sensing as well as surface in situ observations

Abstract: . Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes. Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50 % decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2∕3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1. Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AOD f , AOD c ), Angstrom exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SC dry ), and absorption (AC dry ) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21 % ± 20 % (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from − 37 % (MODIS-Terra) to − 16 % (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients ( R ) between model and observation AOD records are generally high ( R>0 .75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatio-temporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AOD c ( ∼ − 45 % ± 25 %) than in fine AOD f ( ∼ − 15 % ± 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AOD c bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AOD c . Column AEs are underestimated by about 10 % ± 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. + 140 % if observed AE 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment. Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of − 35 % ± 25 % and − 20 % ± 18 % for SC dry and AC dry , respectively. The larger underestimate of SC dry than AC dry suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SC dry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models. Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions. Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. − 15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between − 35 % and + 10 %.

The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback

Abstract: We investigate the sensitivity of cloud feedbacks to the use of convective parametrizations by repeating the CMIP5/CFMIP-2 AMIP/AMIP + 4K uniform sea surface temperature perturbation experiments with 10 climate models which have had their convective parametrizations turned off. Previous studies have suggested that differences between parametrized convection schemes are a leading source of inter-model spread in cloud feedbacks. We find however that ‘ConvOff’ models with convection switched off have a similar overall range of cloud feedbacks compared with the standard configurations. Furthermore, applying a simple bias correction method to allow for differences in present-day global cloud radiative effects substantially reduces the differences between the cloud feedbacks with and without parametrized convection in the individual models. We conclude that, while parametrized convection influences the strength of the cloud feedbacks substantially in some models, other processes must also contribute substantially to the overall inter-model spread. The positive shortwave cloud feedbacks seen in the models in subtropical regimes associated with shallow clouds are still present in the ConvOff experiments. Inter-model spread in shortwave cloud feedback increases slightly in regimes associated with trade cumulus in the ConvOff experiments but is quite similar in the most stable subtropical regimes associated with stratocumulus clouds. Inter-model spread in longwave cloud feedbacks in strongly precipitating regions of the tropics is substantially reduced in the ConvOff experiments however, indicating a considerable local contribution from differences in the details of convective parametrizations. In both standard and ConvOff experiments, models with less mid-level cloud and less moist static energy near the top of the boundary layer tend to have more positive tropical cloud feedbacks. The role of non-convective processes in contributing to inter-model spread in cloud feedback is discussed.