Naval Postgraduate School

About: Naval Postgraduate School is a education organization based out in Monterey, California, United States. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Tropical cyclone & Nonlinear system. The organization has 5246 authors who have published 11614 publications receiving 298300 citations. The organization is also known as: NPS & U.S. Naval Postgraduate School.

Exploring the world of agent-based simulations: simple models, complex analyses: exploring the world of agent-based simulations: simple models, complex analyses

Abstract: Agent-based simulations are models where multiple entities sense and stochastically respond to conditions in their local environments, mimicking complex large-scale system behavior. We provide an overview of some important issues in the modeling and analysis of agent-based systems. Examples are drawn from a range of fields: biological modeling, sociological modeling, and industrial applications, though we focus on recent results for a variety of military applications. Based on our experiences with various agent-based models, we describe issues that simulation analysts should be aware of when embarking on agent-based model development. We also describe a number of tools (both graphical and analytical) that we have found particularly useful for analyzing these types of simulation models. We conclude with a discussion of areas in need of further investigation.

How Probabilistic Risk Assessment Can Mislead Terrorism Risk Analysts

Abstract: Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), of the type originally developed for engineered systems, is still proposed for terrorism risk analysis. We show that such PRA applications are unjustified in general. The capacity of terrorists to seek and use information and to actively research different attack options before deciding what to do raises unique features of terrorism risk assessment that are not adequately addressed by conventional PRA for natural and engineered systems—in part because decisions based on such PRA estimates do not adequately hedge against the different probabilities that attackers may eventually act upon. These probabilities may differ from the defender’s (even if the defender’s experts are thoroughly trained, well calibrated, unbiased probability assessors) because they may be conditioned on different information. We illustrate the fundamental differences between PRA and terrorism risk analysis, and suggest use of robust decision analysis for risk management when attackers may know more about some attack options than we do.

Comprehensive airborne characterization of aerosol from a major bovine source

Abstract: We report an extensive airborne characterization of aerosol downwind of a massive bovine source in the San Joaquin Valley (California) on two flights during July 2007. The Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter probed chemical composition, particle size distribution, mixing state, sub- and supersaturated water uptake behavior, light scattering properties, and the interrelationship between these parameters and meteorology. Total PM_(1.0) levels and concentrations of organics. nitrate. and ammonium were enhanced in the plume from the source as compared to the background aerosol. Organics dominated the plume aerosol mass (~56-64%), followed either by sulfate or nitrate. and then ammonium. Particulate amines were detected in the plume aerosol by a particle-into-liquid sampler (PILS) and via mass spectral inarkers in the Aerodvne C-ToF-AMS. Amines were found to be a significant atmospheric base even in the presence of arnmonia; particulate amine concentrations are estimated as at least 14-23% of that of ammonium in the plume. Enhanced sub- and supersaturated water uptake and reduced refractive indices were coincident with lower organic mass fractions, higher nitrate mass fractions, and the detection of amines. The likelihood of suppressed droplet growth owing to kinetic limitations from hydrophobic organic material is explored. After removing effects associated with size distribution and mixing state, the normalized activated fraction of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) increased as a function of the subsaturated hygroscopic growth factor, with the highest activated fractions being consistent with relatively lower organic mass fractions and higher nitrate mass fractions. Subsaturated hygroscopic growth factors for the organic fraction of the aerosol are estimated based on employing the Zdanovskii-Stokes Robinson (ZSR) mixing rule. Representative values for a parameterization treating particle water uptake in both the sub- and supersaturated regimes are reported for incorporation into atmospheric models.

Short-Term Planetary-Scale Interactions over the Tropics and Midlatitudes during Northern Winter. Part I: Contrasts between Active and Inactive Periods

Abstract: Objectively analyzed 200 mb winds of four winters are used to study the short-term (several days) teleconnections between planetary-scale circulation components over the monsoon region. The composited structures suggest that during very actively northeasterly monsoon (surge) periods, the midlatitude and tropical circulation components vary in a coherent way. The jet streak and local Hadley circulation over East Asia, the divergent flow over the maritime continent, and the equatorial Walker circulations over the Pacific and Indian Oceans all strengthen steadily, while the secondary jet streak over West Asia weakens. During inactive (break) periods the midlatitude circulation components all exhibit reversed changes, while the variations in the tropics are less coherent, although still showing reversed tendencies. The results basically verify the short-term teleconnection model proposed by Chang and Lau (1980), but more complex processes in the acceleration of the midlatitude jet streaks are indicated. In addition, the contrast between the very active and break monsoon periods suggests the relative importance of tropical versus midlatitudinal forcings in different regions of the monsoon circulation.