Showing papers by "Naval Postgraduate School published in 2020"

Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather

Abstract: The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the late twentieth century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). Recently, there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical contributions to AA, and progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms that link it to midlatitude weather variability. Observational studies overwhelmingly support that AA is contributing to winter continental cooling. Although some model experiments support the observational evidence, most modelling results show little connection between AA and severe midlatitude weather or suggest the export of excess heating from the Arctic to lower latitudes. Divergent conclusions between model and observational studies, and even intramodel studies, continue to obfuscate a clear understanding of how AA is influencing midlatitude weather.

Political Ideology Predicts Perceptions of the Threat of COVID-19 (and Susceptibility to Fake News About It)

Abstract: The present research examined the relationship between political ideology and perceptions of the threat of COVID-19. Due to Republican leadership’s initial downplaying of COVID-19 and the resulting...

From high-entropy ceramics to compositionally-complex ceramics: A case study of fluorite oxides

Abstract: Using fluorite oxides as an example, this study broadens high-entropy ceramics (HECs) to compositionally-complex ceramics (CCCs) or multi-principal cation ceramics (MPCCs) to include medium-entropy and/or non-equimolar compositions. Nine compositions of compositionally-complex fluorite oxides (CCFOs) with the general formula of (Hf1/3Zr1/3Ce1/3)1-x(Y1/2X1/2)xO2-δ (X = Yb, Ca, and Gd; x = 0.4, 0.148, and 0.058) are fabricated. The phase stability, mechanical properties, and thermal conductivities are measured. Compared with yttria-stabilized zirconia, these CCFOs exhibit increased cubic phase stability and reduced thermal conductivity, while retaining high Young’s modulus (∼210 GPa) and nanohardness (∼18 GPa). Moreover, the temperature-dependent thermal conductivity in the non-equimolar CCFOs shows an amorphous-like behavior. In comparison with their equimolar high-entropy counterparts, the medium-entropy non-equimolar CCFOs exhibit even lower thermal conductivity (k) while maintaining high modulus (E), thereby achieving higher E/k ratios. These results suggest a new direction to achieve thermally-insulative yet stiff CCCs (MPCCs) via exploring non-equimolar and/or medium-entropy compositions.

Strategies for Combating Dark Networks

Abstract: Our goal in this paper is to explore two generic approaches to disrupting dark networks: kinetic and nonkinetic The kinetic approach involves aggressive and offensive measures to eliminate or capture network members and their supporters, while the non-kinetic approach involves the use of subtle, non-coercive means for combating dark networks Two strategies derive from the kinetic approach: Targeting and Capacity-building Four strategies derive from the non-kinetic approach: Institution-Building, Psychological Operations, Information Operations and Rehabilitation We use network data from Noordin Top’s South East Asian terror network to illustrate how both kinetic and non-kinetic strategies could be pursued depending on a commander’s intent Using this strategic framework as a backdrop, we strongly advise the use of SNA metrics in developing alterative counter-terrorism strategies that are contextdependent rather than letting SNA metrics define and drive a particular strategy

The Physics of Sediment Transport Initiation, Cessation, and Entrainment Across Aeolian and Fluvial Environments

Abstract: Predicting the morphodynamics of sedimentary landscapes due to fluvial and aeolian flows requires answering the following questions: is the flow strong enough to initiate sediment transport, is the flow strong enough to sustain sediment transport once initiated, and how much sediment is transported by the flow in the saturated state (i.e., what is the transport capacity)? In the geomorphological and related literature, the widespread consensus has been that the initiation, cessation, and capacity of fluvial transport, and the initiation of aeolian transport, are controlled by fluid entrainment of bed sediment caused by flow forces overcoming local resisting forces, whereas aeolian transport cessation and capacity are controlled by impact entrainment caused by the impacts of transported particles with the bed. Here the physics of sediment transport initiation, cessation, and capacity is reviewed with emphasis on recent consensus‐challenging developments in sediment transport experiments, two‐phase flow modeling, and the incorporation of granular physics' concepts. Highlighted are the similarities between dense granular flows and sediment transport, such as a superslow granular motion known as creeping (which occurs for arbitrarily weak driving flows) and system‐spanning force networks that resist bed sediment entrainment; the roles of the magnitude and duration of turbulent fluctuation events in fluid entrainment; the traditionally overlooked role of particle‐bed impacts in triggering entrainment events in fluvial transport; and the common physical underpinning of transport thresholds across aeolian and fluvial environments. This sheds a new light on the well‐known Shields diagram, where measurements of fluid‐entrainment thresholds could actually correspond to entrainment‐independent cessation thresholds.

The MOSAiC ice floe: sediment-laden survivor from the Siberian shelf

Abstract: . In September 2019, the research icebreaker Polarstern started the largest multidisciplinary Arctic expedition to date, the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) drift experiment. Being moored to an ice floe for a whole year, thus including the winter season, the declared goal of the expedition is to better understand and quantify relevant processes within the atmosphere–ice–ocean system that impact the sea ice mass and energy budget, ultimately leading to much improved climate models. Satellite observations, atmospheric reanalysis data, and readings from a nearby meteorological station indicate that the interplay of high ice export in late winter and exceptionally high air temperatures resulted in the longest ice-free summer period since reliable instrumental records began. We show, using a Lagrangian tracking tool and a thermodynamic sea ice model, that the MOSAiC floe carrying the Central Observatory (CO) formed in a polynya event north of the New Siberian Islands at the beginning of December 2018. The results further indicate that sea ice in the vicinity of the CO ( km distance) was younger and 36 % thinner than the surrounding ice with potential consequences for ice dynamics and momentum and heat transfer between ocean and atmosphere. Sea ice surveys carried out on various reference floes in autumn 2019 verify this gradient in ice thickness, and sediments discovered in ice cores (so-called dirty sea ice) around the CO confirm contact with shallow waters in an early phase of growth, consistent with the tracking analysis. Since less and less ice from the Siberian shelves survives its first summer (Krumpen et al., 2019), the MOSAiC experiment provides the unique opportunity to study the role of sea ice as a transport medium for gases, macronutrients, iron, organic matter, sediments and pollutants from shelf areas to the central Arctic Ocean and beyond. Compared to data for the past 26 years, the sea ice encountered at the end of September 2019 can already be classified as exceptionally thin, and further predicted changes towards a seasonally ice-free ocean will likely cut off the long-range transport of ice-rafted materials by the Transpolar Drift in the future. A reduced long-range transport of sea ice would have strong implications for the redistribution of biogeochemical matter in the central Arctic Ocean, with consequences for the balance of climate-relevant trace gases, primary production and biodiversity in the Arctic Ocean.

C -Differentials, Multiplicative Uniformity, and (Almost) Perfect c -Nonlinearity

Abstract: In this paper we define a new (output) multiplicative differential, and the corresponding c -differential uniformity. With this new concept, even for characteristic 2, there are perfect ${c}$ -nonlinear (PcN) functions. We first characterize the ${c}$ -differential uniformity of a function in terms of its Walsh transform. We further look at some of the known perfect nonlinear (PN) functions and show that only one remains a PcN function, under a different condition on the parameters. In fact, the p -ary Gold PN function increases its c -differential uniformity significantly, under some conditions on the parameters. We then precisely characterize the c -differential uniformity of the inverse function (in any dimension and characteristic), relevant for the Rijndael (and Advanced Encryption Standard) block cipher.

STFT Cluster Analysis for DC Pulsed Load Monitoring and Fault Detection on Naval Shipboard Power Systems

Abstract: Current trends in Naval shipboard power system architecture indicate that the electrification of future warships is inevitable, and it will be equipped with loads that draw periodic pulsed currents from the dc microgrid or have large transients while switching state. In order to monitor the operation of those loads, solely time-based features are not enough as they do not provide sufficiently unique information to differentiate various transient stages of the load profile. The focus of more recent research has been on extracting time–frequency features. However, no comprehensive solution exists that could work for any general load profile. The proposed load monitoring and fault detection method presented in this article outlines a data clustering-based approach to extract unique feature vectors from short-time Fourier transform analysis for any pulsed load. These features can then be used to identify various events in the load transient as well as shunt faults and series arcing faults. Implementation and performance of the scheme for several load profiles and fault scenarios are included.

The physics of sediment transport initiation, cessation, and entrainment across aeolian and fluvial environments

Abstract: Predicting the morphodynamics of sedimentary landscapes due to fluvial and aeolian flows requires answering the following questions: Is the flow strong enough to initiate sediment transport, is the flow strong enough to sustain sediment transport once initiated, and how much sediment is transported by the flow in the saturated state (i.e., what is the transport capacity)? In the geomorphological and related literature, the widespread consensus has been that the initiation, cessation, and capacity of fluvial transport, and the initiation of aeolian transport, are controlled by fluid entrainment of bed sediment caused by flow forces overcoming local resisting forces, whereas aeolian transport cessation and capacity are controlled by impact entrainment caused by the impacts of transported particles with the bed. Here the physics of sediment transport initiation, cessation, and capacity is reviewed with emphasis on recent consensus-challenging developments in sediment transport experiments, two-phase flow modeling, and the incorporation of granular physics' concepts. Highlighted are the similarities between dense granular flows and sediment transport, such as a superslow granular motion known as creeping (which occurs for arbitrarily weak driving flows) and system-spanning force networks that resist bed sediment entrainment; the roles of the magnitude and duration of turbulent fluctuation events in fluid entrainment; the traditionally overlooked role of particle-bed impacts in triggering entrainment events in fluvial transport; and the common physical underpinning of transport thresholds across aeolian and fluvial environments. This sheds a new light on the well-known Shields diagram, where measurements of fluid entrainment thresholds could actually correspond to entrainment-independent cessation thresholds.

A Commons for a Supply Chain in the Post-COVID-19 Era: The Case for a Reformed Strategic National Stockpile.

Abstract: Policy Points Reflecting on current response deficiencies, we offer a model for a national contingency supply chain cell (NCSCC) construct to manage the medical materials supply chain in support of emergencies, such as COVID-19. We develop the following: a framework for governance and response to enable a globally independent supply chain; a flexible structure to accommodate the requirements of state and county health systems for receiving and distributing materials; and a national material "control tower" to improve transparency and real-time access to material status and location. Context Much of the discussion about the failure of the COVID-19 supply chain has centered on personal protective equipment (PPE) and the degree of vulnerability of care. Prior research on supply chain risks have focused on mitigating the risk of disruptions of specific purchased materials within a bounded region or on the shifting status of cross-border export restrictions. But COVID-19 has impacted every purchase category, region, and border. This paper is responsive to the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine recommendation to study and monitor disasters and to provide governments with course of action to satisfy legislative mandates. Methods Our analysis draws on our observations of the responses to COVID-19 in regard to acquisition and contracting problem-solving, our review of field discussions and interactions with experts, a critique of existing proposals for managing the strategic national stockpile in the United States a mapping of the responses to national contingency planning phases, and the identification of gaps in current national healthcare response policy frameworks and proposals. Findings Current proposals call for augmenting a system that has failed to deliver the needed response to COVID-19. These proposals do not address the key attributes for pandemic plan renewal: flexibility, traceability and transparency, persistence and responsiveness, global independence, and equitable access. We offer a commons-based framework for achieving the opportunities and risks which are responsive to a constellation of intelligence assets working in and across focal targets of global supply chain risk. Conclusions The United States needs a "commons-based strategy" that is not simply a stockpile repository but instead is a network of repositories, fluid inventories, and analytic monitoring governed by the experts. We need a coordinated effort, a "commons" that will direct both conventional and new suppliers to meet demands and to eliminate hoarding and other behaviors.

The Community Code Verification Exercise for Simulating Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS)

Abstract: Numerical simulations of Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS) have made great progress over the past decades to address important questions in earthquake physics and fault mechanics. However, significant challenges in SEAS modeling remain in resolving multiscale interactions between aseismic fault slip, earthquake nucleation, and dynamic rupture; and understanding physical factors controlling observables such as seismicity and ground deformation. The increasing capability and complexity of SEAS modeling calls for extensive efforts to verify codes and advance these simulations with rigor, reproducibility, and broadened impact. In 2018, we initiated a community code-verification exercise for SEAS simulations, supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Here we report the findings from our first two benchmark problems (BP1 and BP2), designed to test the capabilities of different computational methods in correctly solving a mathematically well-defined, basic problem in crustal faulting. These benchmarks are for a 2D antiplane problem, with a 1D planar vertical strike-slip fault obeying rate-and-state friction, embedded in a 2D homogeneous, linear elastic half-space. Sequences of quasi-dynamic earthquakes with periodic occurrences (BP1) or bimodal sizes (BP2) and their interactions with aseismic slip are simulated. The comparison of >70 simulation results from 11 groups using different numerical methods, uploaded to our online platform, show excellent agreements in long-term and coseismic evolution of fault properties. In BP1, we found that the truncated domain boundaries influence interseismic fault stressing, earthquake recurrence, and coseismic rupture process, and that agreement between models is only achieved with sufficiently large domain sizes. In BP2, we found that complexity of long-term fault behavior depends on how well important physical length scales related to spontaneous nucleation and rupture propagation are resolved. Poor numerical resolution can result in the generation of artificial complexity, impacting simulation results that are of potential interest for characterizing seismic hazard, such as earthquake size distributions, moment release, and earthquake recurrence times. These results inform the development of more advanced SEAS models, contributing to our further understanding of earthquake system dynamics.

An Offline-Sampling SMPC Framework With Application to Autonomous Space Maneuvers

Abstract: In this paper, a sampling-based stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) algorithm is proposed for discrete-time linear systems subject to both parametric uncertainties and additive disturbances. One of the main drivers for the development of the proposed control strategy is the need for reliable and robust guidance and control strategies for automated rendezvous and proximity operations between spacecraft. To this end, the proposed control algorithm is validated on a floating spacecraft experimental testbed, proving that this solution is effectively implementable in real time. Parametric uncertainties due to the mass variations during operations, linearization errors, and disturbances due to external space environment are simultaneously considered. The approach enables to suitably tighten the constraints to guarantee robust recursive feasibility when bounds on the uncertain variables are provided. Moreover, the offline sampling approach in the control design phase shifts all the intensive computations to the offline phase, thus greatly reducing the online computational cost, which usually constitutes the main limitation for the adoption of SMPC schemes, especially for low-cost on-board hardware. Numerical simulations and experiments show that the approach provides probabilistic guarantees on the success of the mission, even in rather uncertain and noisy situations, while improving the spacecraft performance in terms of fuel consumption.

Do the Benefits of COVID-19 Policies Exceed the Costs? Exploring Uncertainties in the Age-VSL Relationship

Abstract: Numerous analyses of the benefits and costs of COVID-19 policies have been completed quickly as the crisis unfolds. The results frequently depend largely on the approach used to value mortality risk reductions, typically expressed as the value per statistical life (VSL). Many analyses rely on a population-average VSL estimate of $10 million; some adjust VSL for life expectancy at the age of death. We explore the implications of theory and empirical studies which suggest that the relationship between age and VSL is uncertain. We compare the effects of three approaches: (1) an invariant population-average VSL; (2) a constant value per statistical life-year (VSLY); and (3) a VSL that follows an inverse-U pattern, peaking in middle age. We find that when applied to the U.S. age distribution of COVID-19 deaths, these approaches result in average VSL estimates of $10.63 million, $4.47 million, and $8.31 million. We explore the extent to which applying these estimates alter the conclusions of frequently cited analyses of social distancing, finding that they significantly affect the findings. However, these studies do not address other characteristics of COVID-19 deaths that may increase or decrease the values. Examples include the health status and income level of those affected, the size of the risk change, and the extent to which the risk is dreaded, uncertain, involuntarily incurred, and outside of one’s control. The effects of these characteristics and their correlation with age are uncertain; it is unclear whether they amplify or diminish the effects of age on VSL.

Interactions between Moisture and Tropical Convection. Part I: The Coevolution of Moisture and Convection

Abstract: Realistically representing the multiscale interactions between moisture and tropical convection remains an ongoing challenge for weather prediction and climate models. In this study, we rev...

How Busyness Influences SEC Compliance Activities: Evidence from the Filing Review Process and Comment Letters

Abstract: The SEC reviews firm filings and issues comment letters on those filings. These comment letters play an important role in the assessment of firm value. These activities are seasonally compressed because over 70 percent of registrants have a December fiscal year‐end. Research in other settings finds that busyness leads to negative outcomes. We examine how busyness impacts the frequency, scope, and timeliness of comment letters. We find that the SEC issues fewer comment letters when busy, focuses its limited resources on the most severe cases of disclosure noncompliance, and extends the amount of time between receiving a firm's filing and issuing a comment letter. Despite this, we find no evidence that the SEC misses more serious compliance issues when busy. Our results have implications for policymakers responsible for allocating resources to the SEC. En quoi l'affairement influe sur les activites de la SEC visant le respect des obligations en matiere de conformite : donnees tirees du processus d'examen des declarations et des lettres de commentaires La SEC procede a l'examen des declarations des societes et publie des lettres de commentaires sur ces declarations. Ces lettres de commentaires jouent un role important dans l'estimation de la valeur d'une entreprise. L'intensite de ces activites de la SEC varie selon la saison, compte tenu du fait que l'exercice de plus de 70 pour cent des societes inscrites se termine en decembre. Des recherches menees dans d'autres contextes indiquent que l'affairement conduit a des resultats negatifs. Les auteures se demandent en quoi l'affairement influe sur la frequence, la portee et la rapidite de publication des lettres de commentaires. Elles constatent que la SEC, lorsqu'elle se trouve en periode d'effervescence, publie moins de lettres de commentaires, concentre les ressources limitees dont elle dispose sur les cas les plus graves de non‐conformite des declarations et allonge le delai qui s'ecoule entre la reception de la declaration d'une societe et la publication de la lettre de commentaires. En depit de ces observations, les auteures ne relevent aucune donnee qui demontrerait que la SEC omet des problemes de conformite plus serieux lorsqu'elle est affairee. Ces resultats interesseront les responsables de l'elaboration des politiques charges de l'affectation des ressources a la SEC.

The Influences of Effective Inflow Layer Streamwise Vorticity and Storm-Relative Flow on Supercell Updraft Properties

Abstract: The relationship between storm-relative helicity (SRH) and streamwise vorticity (ωs) is frequently invoked to explain the often robust connections between effective inflow layer (EIL) SRH a...

Thermal Chains and Entrainment in Cumulus Updrafts. Part I: Theoretical Description

Abstract: Recent studies have shown that cumulus updrafts often consist of a succession of discrete rising thermals with spherical vortex-like circulations. In this paper, a theory is developed for why this “thermal chain” structure occurs. Theoretical expressions are obtained for a passive tracer, buoyancy, and vertical velocity in axisymmetric moist updrafts. Analysis of these expressions suggests that the thermal chain structure arises from enhanced lateral mixing associated with intrusions of dry environmental air below an updraft’s vertical velocity maximum. This dry-air entrainment reduces buoyancy locally. Consequently, the updraft flow above levels of locally reduced buoyancy separates from below, leading to a breakdown of the updraft into successive discrete thermals. The range of conditions in which thermal chains exist is also analyzed from the theoretical expressions. A transition in updraft structure from isolated rising thermal, to thermal chain, to starting plume occurs with increases in updraft width, environmental relative humidity, and/or convective available potential energy. Corresponding expressions for the bulk fractional entrainment rateεare also obtained. These expressions indicate rather complicated entrainment behavior of ascending updrafts, with local enhancement ofεup to a factor of ~2 associated with the aforementioned environmental-air intrusions, consistent with recent large-eddy simulation (LES) studies. These locally large entrainment rates contribute significantly to overall updraft dilution in thermal chain-like updrafts, while other regions within the updraft can remain relatively undilute. Part II of this study compares results from the theoretical expressions to idealized numerical simulations and LES.

Observations of Shoaling Nonlinear Internal Bores across the Central California Inner Shelf

Abstract: We present observations of shoaling nonlinear internal bores off the coast of central California. The dataset includes 15 moorings deployed during September–October 2017 and cross-shore shi...

Mao's Third Front: The Militarization of Cold War China

Abstract: In 1964, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) made a momentous policy decision. In response to rising tensions with the United States and Soviet Union, a top-secret massive military industrial complex in the mountains of inland China was built, which the CCP hoped to keep hidden from enemy bombers. Mao named this the Third Front. The Third Front received more government investment than any other developmental initiative of the Mao era, and yet this huge industrial war machine, which saw the mobilization of fifteen million people, was not officially acknowledged for over a decade and a half. Drawing on a rich collection of archival documents, memoirs, and oral interviews, Covell Meyskens provides the first history of the Third Front campaign. He shows how the militarization of Chinese industrialization linked millions of everyday lives to the global Cold War, merging global geopolitics with local change.

Are Supercells Resistant to Entrainment because of Their Rotation

Abstract: This research investigates a hypothesis posed by previous authors, which argues that the helical nature of the flow in supercell updrafts makes them more resistant to entrainment than nonsu...

Operationalizing digital twins through model‐based systems engineering methods

Abstract: In recent years there has been increased demand for readiness and availability metrics across many industries and especially in national defense to enable data‐driven decision making at all levels of planning, maintenance, and operations, and in leveraging integrated models that inform stakeholders of current operational system health and performance metrics. The digital twin (DT) has been identified as a promising approach for deploying these models to fielded systems although several challenges exist in wide adoption and implementation. Two challenges examined in this article are that the nature of DT development is a system‐specific endeavor, and the development is usually an additional effort that begins after initial system fielding. A fundamental challenge with DT development, which sets it apart from traditional models, is the DT itself is treated as a separate system, and therefore the physical asset/DT construct becomes a system‐of‐systems problem. This article explores how objectives in DT development align with those of model‐based systems engineering (MBSE), and how the MBSE process can answer questions necessary to define the DT. The key benefits to the approach are leveraging work already being performed during system synthesis and DT development is pushed earlier in a system's lifecycle. This article contributes to the definition and development processes for DTs by proposing a DT development model and path, a method for scoping and defining requirements for a DT, and an approach to integrate DT and system development. An example case study of a Naval unmanned system is presented to illustrate the contributions.

Thermal Chains and Entrainment in Cumulus Updrafts. Part II: Analysis of Idealized Simulations

Abstract: Research has suggested that the structure of deep convection often consists of a series of rising thermals, or “thermal chain,” which contrasts with existing conceptual models that are used to construct cumulus parameterizations. Simplified theoretical expressions for updraft properties obtained in Part I of this study are used to develop a hypothesis explaining why this structure occurs. In this hypothesis, cumulus updraft structure is strongly influenced by organized entrainment below the updraft’s vertical velocity maximum. In a dry environment, this enhanced entrainment can locally reduce condensation rates and increase evaporation, thus eroding buoyancy. For moderate-to-large initial cloud radius R, this breaks up the updraft into a succession of discrete pulses of rising motion (i.e., a thermal chain). For small R, this leads to the structure of a single, isolated rising thermal. In contrast, moist environments are hypothesized to favor plume-like updrafts for moderate-to-large R. In a series of axisymmetric numerical cloud simulations, R and environmental relative humidity (RH) are systematically varied to test this hypothesis. Vertical profiles of fractional entrainment rate, passive tracer concentration, buoyancy, and vertical velocity from these runs agree well with vertical profiles calculated from the theoretical expressions in Part I. Analysis of the simulations supports the hypothesized dependency of updraft structure on R and RH, that is, whether it consists of an isolated thermal, a thermal chain, or a plume, and the role of organized entrainment in driving this dependency. Additional three-dimensional (3D) turbulent cloud simulations are analyzed, and the behavior of these 3D runs is qualitatively consistent with the theoretical expressions and axisymmetric simulations.

The forgotten numbers: A closer look at COVID-19 non-fatal valuations.

Abstract: Our research estimates COVID-19 non-fatal economic losses in the U.S. using detailed data on cumulative cases and hospitalizations from January 22, 2020 to July 27, 2020, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). As of July 27, 2020, the cumulative confirmed number of cases was about 4.2 million with almost 300,000 of them entailing hospitalizations. Due to data collection limitations the confirmed totals reported by the CDC undercount the actual number of cases and hospitalizations in the U.S. Using standard assumptions provided by the CDC, we estimate that as of July 27, 2020, the actual number of cumulative COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is about 47 million with almost 1 million involving hospitalizations. Applying value per statistical life (VSL) and relative severity/injury estimates from the Department of Transportation (DOT), we estimate an overall non-fatal unadjusted valuation of $2.2 trillion for the U.S. with a weighted average value of about $46,000 per case. This is almost 40% higher than the total valuation of $1.6 trillion (using about $11 million VSL from the DOT) for all approximately 147,000 COVID-19 fatalities. We also show a variety of estimates that adjust the non-fatal valuations by the dreaded and uncertainty aspect of COVID-19, age, income, and a factor related to fatality categorization. The adjustments show current overall non-fatal valuations ranging from about $1.5 trillion to about $9.6 trillion. Finally, we use CDC forecast data to estimate non-fatal valuations through November 2020, and find that the overall cumulative valuation increases from about $2.2 trillion to about $5.7 trillion or to about 30% of GDP. Because of the larger numbers of cases involved our calculations imply that non-fatal infections are as economically serious in the aggregate as ultimately fatal infections.