University of the Algarve

About: University of the Algarve is a education organization based out in Faro, Portugal. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Population & Tourism. The organization has 3649 authors who have published 10303 publications receiving 233536 citations.

Forecasting: theory and practice

Abstract: Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Mechanisms of human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT) regulation: clinical impacts in cancer.

Abstract: Limitless self-renewal is one of the hallmarks of cancer and is attained by telomere maintenance, essentially through telomerase (hTERT) activation. Transcriptional regulation of hTERT is believed to play a major role in telomerase activation in human cancers. The dominant interest in telomerase results from its role in cancer. The role of telomeres and telomere maintenance mechanisms is well established as a major driving force in generating chromosomal and genomic instability. Cancer cells have acquired the ability to overcome their fate of senescence via telomere length maintenance mechanisms, mainly by telomerase activation. hTERT expression is up-regulated in tumors via multiple genetic and epigenetic mechanisms including hTERT amplifications, hTERT structural variants, hTERT promoter mutations and epigenetic modifications through hTERT promoter methylation. Genetic (hTERT promoter mutations) and epigenetic (hTERT promoter methylation and miRNAs) events were shown to have clinical implications in cancers that depend on hTERT activation. Knowing that telomeres are crucial for cellular self-renewal, the mechanisms responsible for telomere maintenance have a crucial role in cancer diseases and might be important oncological biomarkers. Thus, rather than quantifying TERT expression and its correlation with telomerase activation, the discovery and the assessment of the mechanisms responsible for TERT upregulation offers important information that may be used for diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment monitoring in oncology. Furthermore, a better understanding of these mechanisms may promote their translation into effective targeted cancer therapies. Herein, we reviewed the underlying mechanisms of hTERT regulation, their role in oncogenesis, and the potential clinical applications in telomerase-dependent cancers.

The use of sighting data to analyse Iberian lynx habitat and distribution

Abstract: Summary 1. Over a large part of its very restricted and fragmented range, Iberian lynx Lynx pardinus occur in remote mountainous country at low density, where the only information about the species comprises records of incidental sightings obtained by inquiry. In this study we developed an approach for quantifying lynx–habitat relationships and distribution patterns from sighting data, using records from western Algarve (Portugal) in 1990–95. 2. Habitat was described in terms of land cover, topography, human disturbance and rabbit abundance, in 25-km2 cells surrounding lynx sightings and at random locations within the study area. 3. Lynx sightings were consistently associated with predictable habitat features. Sighting probabilities estimated from a logistic regression model increased with the abundance of rabbits and the proportion of land covered by tall Mediterranean maquis, and declined with road density and the amount of developed land. This model identified correctly 85·7% of lynx sightings; at the same time only 20·7% of the random locations were misclassified. 4. Indices of human presence were never associated positively with lynx sightings, suggesting that observation patterns were not influenced by the spatial distribution of potential observers. 5. Kriging was used to interpolate spatially between sighting probabilities derived from the logistic model in order to produce a map of sighting potential for the Iberian lynx in western Algarve. Jack-knife resampling assessed the accuracy of this map. Three well-defined areas of high sighting potential were identified, probably representing the lynx core areas in this region. 6. Our analysis of lynx sighting records suggests that these data may provide a first approximation to lynx habitat and distribution when further information is lacking. The application of this approach to other rare and reclusive species is discussed.