Journal ArticleDOI
A Bayesian conditional autoregressive geometric process model for range data
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In the empirical study on the range data of an Australian stock market index, the CARGPR model outperforms the CARR model in both in-sample estimation and out-of-sample forecast.About:
This article is published in Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.The article was published on 2012-11-01. It has received 24 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: STAR model & Local volatility.read more
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Forecasting: theory and practice
Fotios Petropoulos,Daniele Apiletti,Vassilios Assimakopoulos,Mohamed Zied Babai,Devon K. Barrow,Souhaib Ben Taieb,Christoph Bergmeir,Ricardo J. Bessa,Jakub Bijak,John E. Boylan,Jethro Browell,Claudio Carnevale,Jennifer L. Castle,Pasquale Cirillo,Michael P. Clements,Clara Cordeiro,Clara Cordeiro,Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira,Shari De Baets,Alexander Dokumentov,Joanne Ellison,Piotr Fiszeder,Philip Hans Franses,David T. Frazier,Michael Gilliland,M. Sinan Gönül,Paul Goodwin,Luigi Grossi,Yael Grushka-Cockayne,Mariangela Guidolin,Massimo Guidolin,Ulrich Gunter,Xiaojia Guo,Renato Guseo,Nigel Harvey,David F. Hendry,Ross Hollyman,Tim Januschowski,Jooyoung Jeon,Victor Richmond R. Jose,Yanfei Kang,Anne B. Koehler,Stephan Kolassa,Nikolaos Kourentzes,Nikolaos Kourentzes,Sonia Leva,Feng Li,Konstantia Litsiou,Spyros Makridakis,Gael M. Martin,Andrew B. Martinez,Andrew B. Martinez,Sheik Meeran,Theodore Modis,Konstantinos Nikolopoulos,Dilek Önkal,Alessia Paccagnini,Alessia Paccagnini,Anastasios Panagiotelis,Ioannis P. Panapakidis,Jose M. Pavía,Manuela Pedio,Manuela Pedio,Diego J. Pedregal,Pierre Pinson,Patrícia Ramos,David E. Rapach,J. James Reade,Bahman Rostami-Tabar,Michał Rubaszek,Georgios Sermpinis,Han Lin Shang,Evangelos Spiliotis,Aris A. Syntetos,Priyanga Dilini Talagala,Thiyanga S. Talagala,Len Tashman,Dimitrios D. Thomakos,Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir,Ezio Todini,Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas,Xiaoqian Wang,Robert L. Winkler,Alisa Yusupova,Florian Ziel +84 more
TL;DR: A non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting, offering a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts.
Journal ArticleDOI
Forecasting: theory and practice
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organize, and evaluate forecasts.
Journal ArticleDOI
Modeling Electricity Price Using A Threshold Conditional Autoregressive Geometric Process Jump Model
TL;DR: In this paper, the conditional autoregressive geometric process (CARGP) model with thresholds and jumps is extended to the CARGP-TJ model, which is abbreviated as CARGP TJ model.
Journal ArticleDOI
Quantile range-based volatility measure for modelling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data
TL;DR: In this paper, a quantile Parkinson (QPK) measure is proposed to estimate daily volatility and to show how it can robustify the Parkinson (PK) measures in the presence of intraday extreme returns.
Journal ArticleDOI
Binary geometric process model for the modeling of longitudinal binary data with trend
TL;DR: The Binary Geometric Process (BGP) model for longitudinal binary data with trends is proposed and results reveal that all estimators perform satisfactorily and that the ML estimator performs the best.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Equation of state calculations by fast computing machines
TL;DR: In this article, a modified Monte Carlo integration over configuration space is used to investigate the properties of a two-dimensional rigid-sphere system with a set of interacting individual molecules, and the results are compared to free volume equations of state and a four-term virial coefficient expansion.
Journal ArticleDOI
Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
Tim Bollerslev,Tim Bollerslev +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a natural generalization of the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic) process introduced in 1982 to allow for past conditional variances in the current conditional variance equation is proposed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Monte Carlo Sampling Methods Using Markov Chains and Their Applications
TL;DR: A generalization of the sampling method introduced by Metropolis et al. as mentioned in this paper is presented along with an exposition of the relevant theory, techniques of application and methods and difficulties of assessing the error in Monte Carlo estimates.
Journal ArticleDOI
Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider the problem of comparing complex hierarchical models in which the number of parameters is not clearly defined and derive a measure pD for the effective number in a model as the difference between the posterior mean of the deviances and the deviance at the posterior means of the parameters of interest, which is related to other information criteria and has an approximate decision theoretic justification.
BookDOI
Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice
TL;DR: The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Implementation Results Summary and Discussion MEDICAL MONITORING Introduction Modelling Medical Monitoring Computing Posterior Distributions Forecasting Model Criticism Illustrative Application Discussion MCMC for NONLINEAR HIERARCHICAL MODELS.