Dating first cases of COVID-19.
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TLDR
This article provided novel methods to date the origin of COVID-19 cases and showed that six countries had exceptionally early cases, unlikely to represent part of their main case series, which suggests an earlier and more rapid timeline of spread.Abstract:
Questions persist as to the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence is building that its origin as a zoonotic spillover occurred prior to the officially accepted timing of early December, 2019. Here we provide novel methods to date the origin of COVID-19 cases. We show that six countries had exceptionally early cases, unlikely to represent part of their main case series. The model suggests a likely timing of the first case of COVID-19 in China as November 17 (95% CI October 4). Origination dates are discussed for the first five countries outside China and each continent. Results infer that SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China in early October to mid-November, and by January, had spread globally. This suggests an earlier and more rapid timeline of spread. Our study provides new approaches for estimating dates of the arrival of infectious diseases based on small samples that can be applied to many epidemiological situations.read more
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References
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An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values
TL;DR: This paper presents a meta-modelling framework that automates the very labor-intensive and therefore time-heavy and therefore expensive and expensive process of manually cataloging and modeling extreme value values in sequences.
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TL;DR: It is shown that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus, and scenarios by which they could have arisen are discussed.
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TL;DR: What genomic data reveal about the emergence SARS-CoV-2 is described and the gaps in the authors' understanding of its origins are discussed.
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