Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA
TLDR
In this paper, a suite of statistics, or metrics, was calculated, that included correlation and variance of mean seasonal spatial patterns, amplitude of seasonal cycle, diurnal temperature range, annual- to decadal-scale variance, long-term persistence, and regional teleconnections to El Nino Southern Oscillation.Abstract:
[1] Monthly temperature and precipitation data from 41 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were compared to observations for the 20th century, with a focus on the United States Pacific Northwest (PNW) and surrounding region. A suite of statistics, or metrics, was calculated, that included correlation and variance of mean seasonal spatial patterns, amplitude of seasonal cycle, diurnal temperature range, annual- to decadal-scale variance, long-term persistence, and regional teleconnections to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Performance, or credibility, was assessed based on the GCMs' abilities to reproduce the observed metrics. GCMs were ranked in their credibility using two methods. The first simply treated all metrics equally. The second method considered two properties of the metrics: (1) redundancy of information (dependence) among metrics, and (2) confidence in the reliability of an individual metric for accurately ranking models. Confidence was related to how robust the estimate of the metric was to ensemble size, given that for most of the models only a small number of ensemble members (i.e., realizations of the 20th century) were available. A cursory comparison with 24 CMIP3 models revealed few differences between the two generations of models with respect to the statistics analyzed.read more
Citations
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ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5
TL;DR: In this article, the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was analyzed.
Journal ArticleDOI
How much runoff originates as snow in the western United States, and how will that change in the future?
Dongyue Li,Dongyue Li,Melissa L. Wrzesien,Michael Durand,Jennifer C. Adam,Dennis P. Lettenmaier +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that 53% of the total runoff in the western United States originates as snowmelt, despite only 37% of precipitation falling as snow.
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Improved Bias Correction Techniques for Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change
TL;DR: In this article, three existing bias correction methods and a new one were applied to daily maximum temperature and precipitation from 21 GCMs to investigate how different methods alter the climate change signal of the GCM.
Journal ArticleDOI
Seasonal Climate Variability and Change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States
TL;DR: In this paper, a bootstrapped multiple linear regression model was used to better resolve the temporal heterogeneity of seasonal temperature and precipitation trends and to apportion trends to internal climate variability, solar variability, volcanic aerosols, and anthropogenic forcing.
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Historic and projected changes in vapor pressure deficit suggest a continental‐scale drying of the United States atmosphere
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess changes in VPD, es, and ea in the United States (U.S.) for the recent past (1979-2013) and the future (2065-2099) using gridded, observed climate data and output from general circulation models.
References
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