Reports of coal’s terminal decline may be exaggerated
TLDR
In this paper, the authors estimate the cumulative future emissions expected to be released by coal power plants that are currently under construction, announced, or planned, and discuss the political economy of policy options that could avoid a continued build-up of coal-fired power plants.Abstract:
We estimate the cumulative future emissions expected to be released by coal power plants that are currently under construction, announced, or planned Even though coal consumption has recently declined and plans to build new coal-fired capacities have been shelved, constructing all these planned coal-fired power plants would endanger national and international climate targets Plans to build new coal-fired power capacity would likely undermine the credibility of some countries' (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions submitted to the UNFCCC If all the coal-fired power plants that are currently planned were built, the carbon budget for reaching the 2 °C temperature target would nearly be depleted Propositions about 'coal's terminal decline' may thereby be premature The phase-out of coal requires dedicated and well-designed policies We discuss the political economy of policy options that could avoid a continued build-up of coal-fired power plantsread more
Citations
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Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development
Joeri Rogelj,Drew Shindell,Kejun Jiang,Solomone Fifita,Veronika Ginzburg,Collins Handa,Haroon S. Kheshgi,Shigeki Kobayashi,Elmar Kriegler,Luis Mundaca,Roland Séférian,M.V. Vilarino +11 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a survey of the work of the authors of this paper, including the following authors: Katherine Calvin (USA), Joana Correia de Oliveira de Portugal Pereira (UK/Portugal), Oreane Edelenbosch (Netherlands/Italy), Johannes Emmerling (Italy/Germany), Sabine Fuss (Germany), Thomas Gasser (Austria/France), Nathan Gillett (Canada), Chenmin He (China), Edgar Hertwich (USA/Austria), Lena Höglund-Is
Journal ArticleDOI
Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target
Dan Tong,Dan Tong,Qiang Zhang,Yixuan Zheng,Yixuan Zheng,Ken Caldeira,Christine Shearer,Chaopeng Hong,Yue Qin,Steven J. Davis,Steven J. Davis +10 more
TL;DR: A comprehensive assessment of ‘committed’ carbon dioxide emissions—from existing and proposed fossil-fuel-based infrastructure—finds that these emissions may exceed the level required to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Journal ArticleDOI
Structural decline in China’s CO2 emissions through transitions in industry and energy systems
Dabo Guan,Dabo Guan,Jing Meng,Jing Meng,David Reiner,Ning Zhang,Yuli Shan,Zhifu Mi,Shuai Shao,Zhu Liu,Zhu Liu,Qiang Zhang,Steven J. Davis +12 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors quantitatively evaluate the drivers of the peak and decline of China's CO2 emissions between 2007 and 2016 using the latest available energy, economic and industry data, and conclude that the decline of Chinese emissions is structural and is likely to be sustained if the nascent industrial and energy system transitions continue.
Journal ArticleDOI
A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
William F. Lamb,Thomas Wiedmann,Julia Pongratz,Robbie M. Andrew,Monica Crippa,J. G. J. Olivier,Dominik Wiedenhofer,Giulio Mattioli,Alaa Al Khourdajie,Joanna Isobel House,Shonali Pachauri,Maria J. Figueroa,Yamina Saheb,Raphael Slade,Klaus Hubacek,Laixiang Sun,Suzana Kahn Ribeiro,Smail Khennas,Stephane de la Rue du Can,Lazarus Chapungu,Steven J. Davis,Igor Bashmakov,Hancheng Dai,Shobhakar Dhakal,Xianchun Tan,Yong Geng,Baihe Gu,Jan C. Minx +27 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present estimates of greenhouse gas emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions.
Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
TL;DR: The outcome is that the concentration of atmospheric CO2 would remain below 430 parts per million (ppm) and global mean temperatures would increase to 1.3°C above preindustrial values, well below current targets and 2°C, respectively.
References
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Understanding carbon lock-in
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel-based energy systems through a process of technological and institutional co-evolution driven by path-dependent increasing returns to scale.
Journal ArticleDOI
The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C
Christophe McGlade,Paul Ekins +1 more
TL;DR: It is shown that development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts to limit average global warming to 2 °C, and policy makers’ instincts to exploit rapidly and completely their territorial fossil fuels are inconsistent with this temperature limit.
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Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimated the commitment to future emissions and warming represented by existing carbon dioxide-emitting devices and concluded that sources of the most threatening emissions have yet to be built.
Journal ArticleDOI
Betting on negative emissions
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TL;DR: In this paper, the credibility of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage as a climate change mitigation option is investigated. But its credibility is unproven and its widespread deployment in climate stabilization scenarios might become a dangerous distraction.
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The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change
Felix Creutzig,Peter Agoston,Jan Christoph Goldschmidt,Gunnar Luderer,Gregory F. Nemet,Robert C. Pietzcker +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that underestimating PV potential led to suboptimal integration measures and that specific deployment strategies for emerging economies should be developed, and that PV generation represents a growing share of power generation.
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