Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways
Gunnar Luderer,Zoi Vrontisi,Christoph Bertram,Oreane Y. Edelenbosch,Oreane Y. Edelenbosch,Robert C. Pietzcker,Joeri Rogelj,Harmen Sytze de Boer,Harmen Sytze de Boer,Laurent Drouet,Johannes Emmerling,Oliver Fricko,Shinichiro Fujimori,Shinichiro Fujimori,Petr Havlik,Gokul Iyer,Kimon Keramidas,Alban Kitous,Michaja Pehl,Volker Krey,Keywan Riahi,Bert Saveyn,Massimo Tavoni,Massimo Tavoni,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Detlef P. van Vuuren,Elmar Kriegler +26 more
TLDR
In this paper, the authors explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions, and show that even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850-1,150 GtCO2 during 2016-2100, despite carbon prices of US$130-420 per tCO2 by 2030.Abstract:
The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO2 emissions, of which residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are the greatest impediment. Here, using an ensemble of seven integrated assessment models (IAMs), we explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions. Even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850–1,150 GtCO2 during 2016–2100, despite carbon prices of US$130–420 per tCO2 by 2030. Thus, 640–950 GtCO2 removal is required for a likely chance of limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. In the absence of strengthened pre-2030 pledges, long-term CO2 commitments are increased by 160–330 GtCO2, further jeopardizing achievement of the 1.5 °C goal and increasing dependence on CO2 removal.read more
Citations
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The technological and economic prospects for CO2 utilization and removal
Cameron Hepburn,Ella K. Adlen,John Beddington,Emily A. Carter,Emily A. Carter,Sabine Fuss,Niall Mac Dowell,Jan C. Minx,Pete Smith,Charlotte K. Williams +9 more
TL;DR: The capture and use of carbon dioxide to create valuable products might lower the net costs of reducing emissions or removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but barriers to implementation remain substantial and resource constraints prevent the simultaneous deployment of all pathways.
Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C in the Context of Sustainable Development
Joeri Rogelj,Drew Shindell,Kejun Jiang,Solomone Fifita,Veronika Ginzburg,Collins Handa,Haroon S. Kheshgi,Shigeki Kobayashi,Elmar Kriegler,Luis Mundaca,Roland Séférian,M.V. Vilarino +11 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a survey of the work of the authors of this paper, including the following authors: Katherine Calvin (USA), Joana Correia de Oliveira de Portugal Pereira (UK/Portugal), Oreane Edelenbosch (Netherlands/Italy), Johannes Emmerling (Italy/Germany), Sabine Fuss (Germany), Thomas Gasser (Austria/France), Nathan Gillett (Canada), Chenmin He (China), Edgar Hertwich (USA/Austria), Lena Höglund-Is
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Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target
Dan Tong,Dan Tong,Qiang Zhang,Yixuan Zheng,Yixuan Zheng,Ken Caldeira,Christine Shearer,Chaopeng Hong,Yue Qin,Steven J. Davis,Steven J. Davis +10 more
TL;DR: A comprehensive assessment of ‘committed’ carbon dioxide emissions—from existing and proposed fossil-fuel-based infrastructure—finds that these emissions may exceed the level required to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response
Heleen de Coninck,Aromar Revi,Mustafa H.M. Babiker,Paolo Bertoldi,Marcos Silveira Buckeridge,A. Cartwright,W. Dong,James D. Ford,Sabine Fuss,Jean Charles Hourcade,Debora Ley,Reinhard Mechler,Peter Newman,A. Revokatova,Seth Schultz,Linda Steg,T. Sugiyama +16 more
TL;DR: The feasibility of mitigation and adaptation options, and the enabling conditions for strengthening and implementing the systemic changes, are assessed in this article, where the authors consider the global response to warming of 1.5oC comprises transitions in land and ecosystem, energy, urban and infrastructure, and industrial systems.
Journal ArticleDOI
A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal
Joeri Rogelj,Joeri Rogelj,Joeri Rogelj,Daniel Huppmann,Volker Krey,Volker Krey,Keywan Riahi,Keywan Riahi,Leon Clarke,Matthew Gidden,Zebedee Nicholls,Malte Meinshausen,Malte Meinshausen +12 more
TL;DR: This work draws on insights from physical science to propose a scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a specific maximum level with either temperature stabilization or reversal thereafter, and makes questions of intergenerational equity into explicit design choices.
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