Showing papers on "Thunderstorm published in 2015"

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) Field Campaign

Abstract: The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field experiment produced an exceptional dataset on thunderstorms, including their dynamical, physical, and electrical structures and their impact on the chemical composition of the troposphere. The field experiment gathered detailed information on the chemical composition of the inflow and outflow regions of midlatitude thunderstorms in northeast Colorado, west Texas to central Oklahoma, and northern Alabama. A unique aspect of the DC3 strategy was to locate and sample the convective outflow a day after active convection in order to measure the chemical transformations within the upper-tropospheric convective plume. These data are being analyzed to investigate transport and dynamics of the storms, scavenging of soluble trace gases and aerosols, production of nitrogen oxides by lightning, relationships between lightning flash rates and storm parameters, chemistry in the upper troposphere that is affected by the convection, and related source character...

Lightning locating systems: Insights on characteristics and validation techniques

Abstract: Ground-based and satellite-based lightning locating systems are the most common ways to detect and geolocate lightning. Depending upon the frequency range of operation, LLSs may report a variety of processes and characteristics associated with lightning flashes including channel formation, leader pulses, cloud-to-ground return strokes, M-components, ICC pulses, cloud lightning pulses, location, duration, peak current, peak radiated power and energy, and full spatial extent of channels. Lightning data from different types of LLSs often provide complementary information about thunderstorms. For all the applications of lightning data, it is critical to understand the information that is provided by various lightning locating systems in order to interpret it correctly and make the best use of it. In this study, we summarize the various methods to geolocate lightning, both ground-based and satellite-based, and discuss the characteristics of lightning data available from various sources. The performance characteristics of lightning locating systems are determined by their ability to geolocate lightning events accurately with high detection efficiency and with low false detections and report various features of lightning correctly. Different methods or a combination of methods may be used to validate the performance characteristics of different types of lightning locating systems. We examine these methods and their applicability in validating the performance characteristics of different LLS types.

Observed Spatial Characteristics of Beijing Urban Climate Impacts on Summer Thunderstorms

Abstract: This study investigates interactive effects from the Beijing urban area on temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation by use of hourly automatic weather station data from June to August 2008–12. Results show the Beijing summer urban heat island (UHI) as a multicenter distribution (corresponding to underlying land-use features), with stronger nighttime than daytime values (averages of 1.7° vs 0.8°C, respectively). Specific humidity was lower in urban Beijing than in surrounding nonurban areas, and this urban dry island is stronger during day than night (maximum of −2.4 vs −1.9 g kg−1). Wind direction is affected by both a mountain–valley-breeze circulation and by urbanization. Morning low-level flows converged into the strong UHI, but afternoon and evening southerly winds were bifurcated by an urban building-barrier-induced divergence. Summer thunderstorms also thus bifurcated and bypassed the urban center because of the building-barrier effect during both daytime and nightt...

Storm-Scale Data Assimilation and Ensemble Forecasting with the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Part I: Radar Data Experiments

Abstract: This first part of a two-part study on storm-scale radar and satellite data assimilation provides an overview of a multicase study conducted as part of the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) project. The NSSL Experimental WoF System for ensembles (NEWS-e) is used to produce storm-scale analyses and forecasts of six diverse severe weather events from spring 2013 and 2014. In this study, only Doppler reflectivity and radial velocity observations (and, when available, surface mesonet data) are assimilated into a 36-member, storm-scale ensemble using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach. A series of 1-h ensemble forecasts are then initialized from storm-scale analyses during the 1-h period preceding the onset of storm reports. Of particular interest is the ability of these 0–1-h ensemble forecasts to reproduce the low-level rotational characteristics of supercell thunderstorms, as well as other convective hazards. For the tornado-producing thunderstorms considered in this study, ensemble probabilistic f...

Proximity Soundings of Severe and Nonsevere Thunderstorms in Central Europe

Abstract: The environments of severe and nonsevere thunderstorms were analyzed using 16 421 proximity soundings from December 2007 to December 2013 taken at 32 central European stations. The soundings were assigned severity categories for the following hazards: hail, wind, tornado, and rain. For each of the soundings, parameters were calculated representing the instability, vertical wind profile, and moisture of the environment. The probability of the various hazards as a function of CAPE and 0–6-km bulk shear (DLS) is quite different for each of the hazards. Large hail is most likely for high CAPE and high DLS, a regime that also supports severe wind events. A second severe wind regime exists for low CAPE and very high DLS. These events are mostly cold season events. Storms with significant tornadoes occur with much higher DLS than storms with weak or no tornadoes, but with similar CAPE. The 0–1-km bulk shear (LLS) does not discriminate better than DLS between weak and significant tornadoes. Heavy rain eve...

The effect of global warming on severe thunderstorms in the United States

Abstract: How will warming temperatures influence thunderstorm severity? This question can be explored by using climate models to diagnose changes in large-scale convective instability (CAPE) and wind shear, conditions that are known to be conducive to the formation of severe thunderstorms. First, an ensemble of climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is evaluated on its ability to reproduce a radiosonde climatology of such storm-favorable conditions in the current climate’s spring and summer seasons, focusing on the contiguous United States (CONUS). Of the 11 climate models evaluated, a high-performing subset of four (GFDL CM3, GFDL-ESM2M, MRI-CGCM3, and NorESM1-M) is identified. Second, the twenty-first-century changes in the frequency of environments favorable to severe thunderstorms are calculated in these high-performing models as they are forced by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions pathways. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the models predict consistent CONUS-mean fracti...

Lightning Leader Altitude Progression in Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flashes†

Abstract: Radio emissions continue to provide insight into the production of terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs) by thunderstorms, including the critical question of the conditions under which they are generated. We have identified several TGF-associated lightning radio emissions in which the altitudes of in-cloud lightning leader pulses that precede and follow the TGF can be measured. We combine these with high absolute timing accuracy TGF observations from the Fermi satellite to determine the development of the lightning channel before, during, and after the TGF production. All of these TGFs were produced several milliseconds after the leader had initiated and when the leaders reached 1–2 km in length. After the TGFs, the leaders all continued to ascend for several more kilometers with no dramatic change in their characteristics, although they all exhibited high average velocities of 0.8–1.0 × 106 m/s. Implications in the context of TGF models are discussed. These results paint the first clear picture of the lightning processes that occur before, during, and after TGF production.

Insights into high peak current in-cloud lightning events during thunderstorms

Abstract: We investigated National Lightning Detection Network reports and lightning radio waveforms in a 44 day observation period to analyze the in-cloud (IC) events producing currents above 200 kA. The results show that there are two distinct classes of IC lightning events with very high peak currents: the well-known narrow bipolar events, and a previously unreported type that we call energetic in-cloud pulses (EIPs). Their temporal and spatial context shows that EIPs are generated from existing negative polarity leaders that are propagating usually upward but sometimes downward. The nearly identical characteristics of EIPs and some previously reported terrestrial gamma ray flashes (TGFs) indicate a likely connection between the two, which further suggests the possibility of downward directed TGFs. These very high peak current IC events also suggest the association of EIPs with ionospheric perturbations and optical emissions known as elves.

Relativistic electron avalanches as a thunderstorm discharge competing with lightning

Abstract: Gamma-ray ‘glows’ are long duration (seconds to tens of minutes) X-ray and gamma-ray emission coming from thunderclouds. Measurements suggest the presence of relativistic runaway electron avalanches (RREA), the same process underlying terrestrial gamma-ray flashes. Here we demonstrate that glows are relatively a common phenomena near the tops of thunderstorms, when compared with events such as terrestrial gamma-ray flashes. Examining the strongest glow measured by the airborne detector for energetic emissions, we show that this glow is measured near the end of a downward RREA, consistent with occurring between the upper positive charge layer and the negative screening layer above it. The glow discharges the upper positive layer by ≥9.6 mA, strong enough to be an important charging mechanism of the storm. For this glow, the gamma-ray flux observed is close to the value at which relativistic feedback processes become important, with an avalanche multiplication factor of 4,500.

Sensitivity of high-resolution idealized simulations of thunderstorms to horizontal resolution and turbulence parametrization

Abstract: Idealized simulations of deep moist convection are performed with the Meso-NH model at kilometric scales to assess the impact of the horizontal grid spacing (4 km, 2 km, 1 km and 500 m) and turbulence scheme (one-dimensional (T1D) versus three-dimensional (T3D) turbulence). The simulations generate one cell which splits into two convective systems: a leftward-moving multicellular system and a rightward-moving supercell. Objective criteria based on statistical properties and bulk quantities are examined for both systems to characterize the convection. They show that the accumulated rainfall and corresponding surface area increase with increasing resolution, as does the area covered by the updraughts, while the 90th quantile of the intensity of updraught cores decreases. The 4 km horizontal grid spacing is set apart, as it clearly under-resolves the convective motions, but the difference between 2 and 1 km horizontal resolutions is larger than between 1 km and 500 m, suggesting the beginning of convergence at 500 m. Also, 1 km appears to represent the deep convective structures more correctly than 2 km for a practical weather forecast of organized convective systems. T3D induces more mixing and enhances the microphysical processes compared with T1D, producing larger amounts of cloud cover and precipitation. Also, the magnitude of the pressure anomaly on the southeastern flank of the supercell is stronger, accentuating the path curvature. The difference between T1D and T3D becomes perceptible at 2 km, pointing out the necessity to deal with horizontal turbulent fluxes at kilometric resolutions. Although a stronger numerical diffusion added to T1D allows the necessary damping to be introduced at the spectral energy tail, it removes a part of the physical mixing and still misses some variance at larger scales. The ratio between resolved and total turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) decreases with increasing resolution for both T1D and T3D, which is unexpected. The main explanation is insufficient turbulent mixing inside convective clouds, more pronounced at coarser resolution, which is also confirmed by the vertical velocity spectra. At 500 m horizontal resolution, the subgrid TKE is mainly due to dynamical processes, with maxima located at the upper level of the convective systems in areas of stronger potential temperatures associated with downdraughts. However, thermal production is mostly negative, underlying the lack of entrainment at the cloud edges.

Central American biomass burning smoke can increase tornado severity in the U.S.

Abstract: Tornadoes in the Southeast and central U.S. are episodically accompanied by smoke from biomass burning in central America. Analysis of the 27 April 2011 historical tornado outbreak shows that adding smoke to an environment already conducive to severe thunderstorm development can increase the likelihood of significant tornado occurrence. Numerical experiments indicate that the presence of smoke during this event leads to optical thickening of shallow clouds while soot within the smoke enhances the capping inversion through radiation absorption. The smoke effects are consistent with measurements of clouds and radiation before and during the outbreak. These effects result in lower cloud bases and stronger low-level wind shear in the warm sector of the extratropical cyclone generating the outbreak, two indicators of higher probability of tornadogenesis and tornado intensity and longevity. These mechanisms may contribute to tornado modulation by aerosols, highlighting the need to consider aerosol feedbacks in numerical severe weather forecasting.

Insight into the Kinematic and Microphysical Processes that Control Lightning Jumps

Abstract: A detailed case study analysis of four thunderstorms is performed using polarimetric and multi-Doppler capabilities to provide specificity on the physical and dynamical drivers behind lightning jumps. The main differences between small increases in the total flash rate and a lightning jump are the increases in graupel mass and updraft volumes ≥10 m s−1 between the −10° and −40°C isotherms. Updraft volumes ≥10 m s−1 increased in magnitude at least 3–5 min in advance of the increase in both graupel mass and total flash rate. Updraft volumes ≥10 m s−1 are more robustly correlated to total flash rate than maximum updraft speed over a thunderstorm’s entire life cycle. However, peak updraft speeds increase prior to 8 of the 12 lightning jumps examined. Decreases in mean and median flash footprint size during increases in total lightning are observed in all four thunderstorms and are most notable during development stages within the most intense storms. However, this inverse relationship breaks down on l...

Island precipitation enhancement and the diurnal cycle in radiative-convective equilibrium

Abstract: To understand why tropical islands are rainier than nearby ocean areas, we explore how a highly idealized island, which differs from the surrounding ocean only in heat capacity, might respond to the diurnal cycle and influence the tropical climate, especially the spatial distribution of rainfall and the thermal structure of the troposphere. We perform simulations of three-dimensional radiative-convective equilibrium with the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) cloud-system-resolving model, with interactive surface temperature, where a highly idealized, low heat capacity circular island is embedded in a slab-ocean domain. The calculated precipitation rate over the island can be more than double the domain average value, with island rainfall occurring primarily in an intense, regular thunderstorm system that forms in the afternoon to early evening each day. Island size affects the magnitude of simulated island rainfall enhancement, the intensity of the convection, and the timing of the rainfall maximum relative to solar noon. A combination of dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms leads to a monotonic enhancement of domain-averaged tropospheric temperature with increasing fraction of island surface, which may contribute to localization of ascent over the Maritime Continent and its relationship to the Walker Circulation.

Probing Atmospheric Electric Fields in Thunderstorms through Radio Emission from Cosmic-Ray-Induced Air Showers

Abstract: We present measurements of radio emission from cosmic ray air showers that took place during thunderstorms. The intensity and polarization patterns of these air showers are radically different from those measured during fair-weather conditions. With the use of a simple two-layer model for the atmospheric electric field, these patterns can be well reproduced by state-of-the-art simulation codes. This in turn provides a novel way to study atmospheric electric fields.

Ionospheric acoustic and gravity waves associated with midlatitude thunderstorms

Abstract: Acoustic waves with periods of 2–4 min and gravity waves with periods of 6–16 min have been detected at ionospheric heights (250–350 km) using GPS total electron content measurements. The area disturbed by these waves and the wave amplitudes have been associated with underlying thunderstorm activity. A statistical study comparing Next Generation Weather Radar thunderstorm measurements with ionospheric acoustic and gravity waves in the midlatitude U.S. Great Plains region was performed for the time period of May–July 2005. An increase of ionospheric acoustic wave disturbed area and amplitude is primarily associated with large thunderstorms (mesoscale convective systems). Ionospheric gravity wave disturbed area and amplitude scale with thunderstorm activity, with even small storms (i.e., individual storm cells) producing an increase of gravity waves.

Exploring Lightning Jump Characteristics

Abstract: This study is concerned with the characteristics of storms exhibiting an abrupt temporal increase in the total lightning flash rate (i.e., lightning jump, LJ). An automated storm tracking method is used to identify storm "clusters" and total lightning activity from three different lightning detection systems over Oklahoma, northern Alabama and Washington, D.C. On average and for different employed thresholds, the clusters that encompass at least one LJ (LJ1) last longer, relate to higher Maximum Expected Size of Hail, Vertical Integrated Liquid and lightning flash rates (area-normalized) than the clusters that did not exhibit any LJ (LJ0). The respective mean values for LJ1 (LJ0) clusters are 80 min (35 min), 14 mm (8 mm), 25 kg per square meter (18 kg per square meter) and 0.05 flash per min per square kilometer (0.01 flash per min per square kilometer). Furthermore, the LJ1 clusters are also characterized by slower decaying autocorrelation functions, a result that implies a less "random" behavior in the temporal flash rate evolution. In addition, the temporal occurrence of the last LJ provides an estimate of the time remaining to the storm's dissipation. Depending of the LJ strength (i.e., varying thresholds), these values typically range between 20-60 min, with stronger jumps indicating more time until storm decay. This study's results support the hypothesis that the LJ is a proxy for the storm's kinematic and microphysical state rather than a coincidental value.

TRMM LIS Climatology of Thunderstorm Occurrence and Conditional Lightning Flash Rates

Abstract: The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has previously been used to build climatologies of mean lightning flash rate across the global tropics and subtropics. This new work explores climatologies of thunderstorm occurrence as seen by LIS and the conditional mean flash rates when thunderstorms do occur. The region where thunderstorms are seen most often by LIS extends slightly farther east in central Africa than the corresponding region with the highest total mean annual flash rates. Presumably this reflects a difference between more frequent thunderstorm initiation in the east and upscale growth as storms move westward. There are some differences between locations with the greatest total lightning flash counts and those where thunderstorms occur most often. The greatest conditional mean flash rates—considering only those TRMM orbits that do have lightning in a given grid box—are found in subtropical regions. The highest values are in Argentina...

The start of lightning: Evidence of bidirectional lightning initiation

Abstract: Lightning flashes are known to initiate in regions of strong electric fields inside thunderstorms, between layers of positively and negatively charged precipitation particles. For that reason, lightning inception is typically hidden from sight of camera systems used in research. Other technology such as lightning mapping systems based on radio waves can typically detect only some aspects of the lightning initiation process and subsequent development of positive and negative leaders. We report here a serendipitous recording of bidirectional lightning initiation in virgin air under the cloud base at ~11,000 images per second, and the differences in characteristics of opposite polarity leader sections during the earliest stages of the discharge. This case reveals natural lightning initiation, propagation and a return stroke as in negative cloud-to-ground flashes, upon connection to another lightning channel - without any masking by cloud.

National Weather Service Forecasters Use GPS Precipitable Water Vapor for Enhanced Situational Awareness during the Southern California Summer Monsoon

Abstract: During the North American Monsoon, low-to-midlevel moisture is transported in surges from the Gulf of California and Eastern Pacific Ocean into Mexico and the American Southwest. As rising levels of precipitable water interact with the mountainous terrain, severe thunderstorms can develop, resulting in flash floods that threaten life and property. The rapid evolution of these storms, coupled with the relative lack of upper-air and surface weather observations in the region, make them difficult to predict and monitor, and guidance from numerical weather prediction models can vary greatly under these conditions. Precipitable water vapor (PW) estimates derived from continuously operating ground-based GPS receivers have been available for some time from NOAA’s GPS-Met program, but these observations have been of limited utility to operational forecasters in part due to poor spatial resolution. Under a NASA Advanced Information Systems Technology project, 37 real-time stations were added to NOAA’s GPS-...

Changes to the turbulent kinematics of a volcanic plume inferred from lightning data

Abstract: The 2009 Redoubt Volcano eruption produced a series of explosive events, the largest of which produced episodes of volcanic lightning similar to thunderstorms. Flash energy spectra were calculated from lightning mapping data collected during the eruption. The spectra were compared to the turbulence characteristics expected from each stage of plume development. Small flash length scales present at early times were associated with the gas thrust and initial convective stages. Increases in flash length scales and flash energy as the explosive events progressed were associated with an increase in volume of the plume. Spectra with a large range in flash length scales (0.2–10 km) and a spectral peak at small flash length scales (< 1 km) were associated with a superposition of spectra from gas thrust, convective, and umbrella/ash cloud regions. An approximate 5/3 power law slope was observed on the order of 10 min after gas thrust forcing had ended and the transition to a drifting ash cloud was underway, which may reflect the dissipating state of the drifting ash cloud.

Positron clouds within thunderstorms

Abstract: We report the observation of two isolated clouds of positrons inside an active thunderstorm. These observations were made by the Airborne Detector for Energetic Lightning Emissions (ADELE), an array of six gamma-ray detectors, which flew on a Gulfstream V jet aircraft through the top of an active thunderstorm in August 2009. ADELE recorded two 511 keV gamma-ray count rate enhancements, 35 s apart, each lasting approximately 0.2 s. The enhancements, which were approximately a factor of 12 above background, were both accompanied by electrical activity as measured by a flat-plate antenna on the underside of the aircraft. The energy spectra were consistent with a source mostly composed of positron annihilation gamma rays, with a prominent 511 keV line clearly visible in the data. Model fits to the data suggest that the aircraft was briefly immersed in clouds of positrons, more than a kilometre across. It is not clear how the positron clouds were created within the thunderstorm, but it is possible they were caused by the presence of the aircraft in the electrified environment.

A Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology for Poland

Abstract: This research focuses on the climatology of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes based on PERUN lightning detection network data from 2002 to 2013. To present various CG lightning flash characteristics, 10 km × 10 km grid cells are used, while for estimating thunderstorm days, circles with radii of 17.5 km in the 1 km × 1 km grid cells are used. A total of 4 328 892 CG lightning flashes are used to analyze counts, density, polarity, peak current, and thunderstorm days. An average of 151 days with thunderstorm (appearing anywhere in Poland) occurs each year. The annual number of days with thunderstorms increases southeasterly from the coast of the Baltic Sea (15–20 days) to the Carpathian Mountains (30–35 days). The mean CG lightning flash density varies from 0.2 to 3.1 flashes km−2 yr−1 with the highest values in the southwest–northeast belt from Krakow-Czestochowa Upland to the Masurian Lake District. The maximum daily CG lightning flash density in this region amounted to 9.1 km−2 day−1 (3 July...