Showing papers on "Tipping point (climatology) published in 2013"

Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts

Abstract: Regime shifts from one ecological state to another are often portrayed as sudden, dramatic, and difficult to reverse. Yet many regime shifts unfold slowly and imperceptibly after a tipping point has been exceeded, especially at regional and global scales. These long, smooth transitions between equilibrium states are easy to miss, ignore, or deny, confounding management and governance. However, slow responses by ecosystems after transgressing a dangerous threshold also affords borrowed time - a window of opportunity to return to safer conditions before the new state eventually locks in and equilibrates. In this context, the most important challenge is a social one: convincing enough people to confront business-as-usual before time runs out to reverse unwanted regime shifts even after they have already begun.

Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries

Abstract: Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries.

Light-driven tipping points in polar ecosystems.

Abstract: Some ecosystems can undergo abrupt transformation in response to relatively small environmental change. Identifying imminent 'tipping points' is crucial for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the face of climate change. Here, we describe a tipping point mechanism likely to induce widespread regime shifts in polar ecosystems. Seasonal snow and ice-cover periodically block sunlight reaching polar ecosystems, but the effect of this on annual light depends critically on the timing of cover within the annual solar cycle. At high latitudes, sunlight is strongly seasonal, and ice-free days around the summer solstice receive orders of magnitude more light than those in winter. Early melt that brings the date of ice-loss closer to midsummer will cause an exponential increase in the amount of sunlight reaching some ecosystems per year. This is likely to drive ecological tipping points in which primary producers (plants and algae) flourish and out-compete dark-adapted communities. We demonstrate this principle on Antarctic shallow seabed ecosystems, which our data suggest are sensitive to small changes in the timing of sea-ice loss. Algae respond to light thresholds that are easily exceeded by a slight reduction in sea-ice duration. Earlier sea-ice loss is likely to cause extensive regime shifts in which endemic shallow-water invertebrate communities are replaced by algae, reducing coastal biodiversity and fundamentally changing ecosystem functioning. Modeling shows that recent changes in ice and snow cover have already transformed annual light budgets in large areas of the Arctic and Antarctic, and both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems are likely to experience further significant change in light. The interaction between ice-loss and solar irradiance renders polar ecosystems acutely vulnerable to abrupt ecosystem change, as light-driven tipping points are readily breached by relatively slight shifts in the timing of snow and ice-loss. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the origin of planetary-scale tipping points

Abstract: Tipping points are recognised in many systems, including ecosystems and elements of the climate system. But can the biosphere as a whole tip and, if so, how? Past global tipping points were rare and occurred in the coupled planetary-scale dynamics of the Earth system, not in the local-scale dynamics of its weakly interacting component ecosystems. Yet, evolutionary innovations have triggered past global transformations, suggesting that tipping point theory needs to go beyond bifurcations and networks to include evolution.

Ideas, interests, and the tipping point: Economic change in India

Abstract: This paper makes the case for a ‘tipping point’ model for understanding economic change in India. This gradual and largely endogenously driven path calls for the simultaneous consideration of ideas and politics. Exogenous shocks affected economic policy, but did not determine the course of economic history in India. India’s developmental model evolved out of new ideas Indian technocrats developed based on events they observed in India and other parts of the world. A historical case for the ‘tipping point’ model is made by comparing two severe balance of payments crises India faced in 1966 and 1991. In 1966, when the weight of ideas and politics in India favored state-led import substitution, Washington could not coerce New Delhi to accept deregulation and globalization. In 1991, on the other hand, when Indian technocrats’ ideas favoured deregulation and globalization, the executive–technocratic team engineered a silent revolution in the policy paradigm. New Delhi engaged constructively with Washington, making a virtue of the necessity of IMF conditions, and implemented a home-grown reform program that laid the foundations for rapid economic growth in world’s most populous and tumultuous democracy.

Self-management at the tipping point: reaching 100,000 Americans with evidence-based programs.

Abstract: Baby boomers are crossing the traditional “aging” threshold. More than 10,000 baby boomers now turn 65 each day. In turn, there is an increasing prevalence of chronic conditions, and more importantly, older adults are ever more likely to be living with multiple chronic conditions. It is important to recognize that, despite advances in medical care, individuals with chronic conditions live the majority of their lives outside of the healthcare system. Thus, it is critical for healthcare providers to be aware of ways in which their patients are managing—or failing to manage—their chronic conditions in their everyday lives. This editorial highlights the benefits of community-based self-management programs, discusses the results of a national rollout for one widely disseminated evidence-based program, and reflects upon the synergistic partnerships that need to be developed between healthcare providers and community service practitioners to create a seamless infrastructure to help expand delivery capacity and sustain such programs. There is accumulating documentation about the success of evidence-based self-management programs in helping people with the medical, role, and emotional management demands associated with chronic conditions. One of the most widely disseminated programs, the Stanford University Chronic Disease Self-Management Program (CDSMP), has been shown in randomized trials to improve symptoms such as pain, shortness of breath, and fatigue; improve ability to engage in everyday activities; reduce depression; enrich communication with healthcare providers; and decrease costly health care such as emergency department visits. Drawing upon evidence-based principles of behavior change, CDSMP workshops consist of six 2.5-hour sessions delivered in small group settings (e.g., 10–16 participants) over a 6-week period. CDSMP is designed to help participants develop skills to manage symptoms and learn specific coping strategies using action planning and feedback, behavior modeling, problemsolving techniques, and decision-making. The program is well scripted, and two leaders who have successfully completed 4 days of training facilitate each workshop. Nevertheless, there is emerging concern about pervasive research-to-practice gaps in which programs developed in research settings fail to be translated into widespread practice in the “aging services network.” This phrase describes a network of state units on aging, area agencies on aging, tribal organizations, and more than 30,000 community-based organizations (e.g., senior centers, social service agencies, faith-based organizations, senior housing) that serve older adults. Working together alongside the U.S. Administration on Aging, state health departments, state Medicaid agencies, and other public agencies, the aging services network is responsible for planning, administering, and providing a wide array of social, long-term care, and health-support services. It is this network of providers that has recognized the importance of being able to bring community-based self-management programs to scale to reach diverse populations of older adults who can benefit from participating in such programs. After 20 years of development and evaluation, CDSMP-type programs have gained traction and are now ready to be introduced nationally. Toward this end, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (i.e., Recovery Act) Communities Putting Prevention to Work: Chronic Disease Self-Management Program initiative, led by the U.S. Administration on Aging in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, allotted $32.5 million to support the translation of the Stanford program in 45 states, Puerto Rico, and the District of Columbia. The goal was to have 50,000 Americans complete at least four of six CDSMP sessions between 2010 and 2012 and to embed delivery structures into statewide systems. This editorial describes the first 100,000 participants who enrolled in this national initiative and reflects on what is needed for the continued widespread dissemination of evidence-based self-management programs. Within the first 24 months of this initiative, more than 100,000 middle-aged and older adults were reached through 9,305 workshops in 1,234 U.S. counties. Participants self-reported 2.2 chronic conditions, the most prevalent being hypertension (43.0%), arthritis (40.8%), diabetes mellitus (30.3%), and depression (19.5%). Participants were primarily female (77.7%), older (mean age 67; 31.7% aged 75), and from diverse ethnic and minority backgrounds. Approximately 17% self-identified as Hispanic, 66.4% as white, 21.5% as African American, 4.5% as Asian or Pacific Islander, and 1.6% as American Indian or Native Alaskan. Although the majority of participants attended CDSMP workshops delivered in English (89.3%), the program was also offered in Spanish, Chinese, Vietnamese, French, and Somali. Paralleling findings from the original randomized clinical trials, participation attendance was high, with approximately 75% attending at least four of the six sessions. Workshops were offered in many DOI: 10.1111/jgs.12239

Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity—The Setting of a Lingering Global Crisis

Abstract: Climate change has created potential major threats to global biodiversity. The multiple components of climate change are projected to affect all pillars of biodiversity, from genes over species to biome level. Of particular concerns are “tipping points” where the exceedance of ecosystem thresholds will possibly lead to irreversible shifts of ecosystems and their functioning. As biodiversity underlies all goods and services provided by ecosystems that are crucial for human survival and wellbeing, this paper presents potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, its plausible impacts on human society as well as the setting in addressing a global crisis. Species affected by climate change may respond in three ways: change, move or die. Local species extinctions or a rapidly affected ecosystem as a whole respectively might move toward its particular “tipping point”, thereby probably depriving its services to human society and ending up in a global crisis. Urgent and appropriate actions within various scenarios of climate change impacts on biodiversity, especially in tropical regions, are needed to be considered. Foremost a multisectoral approach on biodiversity issues with broader policies, stringent strategies and programs at international, national and local levels is essential to meet the challenges of climate change impacts on biodiversity.

The End of the Beginning: Normativity in the Postdigital Museum

Abstract: This article is an attempt to frame a way of seeing museums after the digital revolution. By introducing the concept of the ‘postdigital’, its aim is to evidence a tipping point in the adoption of new media in the museum—a moment where technology has become normative. The intention is not to suggest that digital media today is (or, indeed, should be) universally and equally adopted and assimilated by all museums, but rather to use the experience of several (national) museums to illustrate the normative presence digital media is having within some organizational strategies and structures. Having traced this perceived normativity of technology in these localized institutional settings, the article then attempts to reflect upon the consequences that the postdigital and the normative management of new media have for our approach to museological research.

Anticipating change: sustainable water policy pathways for an uncertain future

Abstract: Water management should preferably bring solutions that sustain even if conditions change. In anticipating change, a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social targets, but it should also be robust to uncertainty and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. The objective of this Ph.D. research was to develop and test a method for exploring adaptation pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas into an uncertain future. The research resulted in two main products: 1) A stepwise policy analysis framework for the development of a sustainable plan that can cope with changing conditions. The key principles of this framework are: the use of transient scenarios representing a variety of relevant uncertain changing conditions over time; the exploration of adaptation pathways after an adaptation tipping point; and an adaptation map showing the set of most promising adaptation pathways and options for transferring from one pathway to another in the format of a metro-map, and 2) A fast, Integrated Assessment MetaModel (IAMM) that allows for exploring many policy pathways under a multiplicity of transient scenarios, and helps to assess when a policy’s tipping point might occur at earliest and at latest (time-span). The approach proved to be valuable for informed decision making on a sustainable water management plan, and has been adopted in the concept of adaptive delta management of the Delta Programme.

Tipping points for seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers under rising sea level

Abstract: This study considers different projections of climate-driven sea-level rise and uses a recently developed, generalized analytical model to investigate the responses of sea intrusion in unconfined sloping coastal aquifers to climate-driven sea-level rise. The results show high nonlinearity in these responses, implying important thresholds, or tipping points, beyond which the responses of seawater intrusion to sea-level rise shift abruptly from a stable state of mild change responses to a new stable state of large responses to small changes that can rapidly lead to full seawater intrusion into a coastal aquifer. The identified tipping points are of three types: (a) spatial, for the particular aquifers (sections) along a coastline with depths that imply critical risk of full sea intrusion in response to even small sea-level rise; (b) temporal, for the critical sea-level rise and its timing, beyond which the change responses and the risk of complete sea intrusion in an aquifer shift abruptly from low to very high; and (c) managerial, for the critical minimum values of groundwater discharge and hydraulic head that inland water management must maintain in an aquifer in order to avoid rapid loss of control and complete sea intrusion in response to even small sea-level rise. The existence of a tipping point depends on highly variable aquifer properties and groundwater conditions, in combination with more homogeneous sea conditions. The generalized analytical model used in this study facilitates parsimonious quantification and screening of sea-intrusion risks and tipping points under such spatio-temporally different condition combinations along extended coastlines.

Temporal and spatial patterns of modern climatic warming: case study of Northern Eurasia

Abstract: Century-scale near-surface air temperature data from 744 weather stations in Russia and neighboring countries indicate that the temperature variations have distinct temporal patterns. Two periods, near the beginning and at the end of the 20th century, experienced the largest warming rates. Temperature changes in both periods were not uniform in time or space. We used statistical criteria and applied them to data at the weather stations to define a “tipping point” corresponding to the beginning of the modern climatic period. Results indicate that the position of this point depends on location, and in most cases falls into the interval from the early 1970s through the late 1980s. By means of spatial correlation analysis we delineated regions with coherent air temperature changes and calculated the region-specific rates and magnitudes of changes. We compared the distribution of regional tipping points in time and over space with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over northern Eurasia. We analyzed the 20th—early 21st century changes in the relative frequencies of the three circulation forms defined by Vangengheim-Girs classification, and found their qualitative correspondence with the spatial temperature patterns and spread of the tipping points in time. These results improve our knowledge about the regional structure and drivers of modern climate change in northern Eurasia, which is likely to hold the fingerprint of the anthropogenic signal. Findings of this study can be used to obtain insight into regional climatic changes in northern Eurasia over the next few decades.

A recent tipping point in the Arctic sea-ice cover: abrupt and persistent increase in the seasonal cycle since 2007

Abstract: . There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea ice has already passed a "tipping point", or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation, because it is highly reversible in models. However, a broader definition of a "tipping point" also includes other abrupt, non-linear changes that are neither bifurcations nor necessarily irreversible. Examination of satellite data for Arctic sea-ice area reveals an abrupt increase in the amplitude of seasonal variability in 2007 that has persisted since then. We identified this abrupt transition using recently developed methods that can detect multi-modality in time-series data and sometimes forewarn of bifurcations. When removing the mean seasonal cycle (up to 2008) from the satellite data, the residual sea-ice fluctuations switch from uni-modal to multi-modal behaviour around 2007. We originally interpreted this as a bifurcation in which a new lower ice cover attractor appears in deseasonalised fluctuations and is sampled in every summer–autumn from 2007 onwards. However, this interpretation is clearly sensitive to how the seasonal cycle is removed from the raw data, and to the presence of continental land masses restricting winter–spring ice fluctuations. Furthermore, there was no robust early warning signal of critical slowing down prior to the hypothesized bifurcation. Early warning indicators do however show destabilization of the summer–autumn sea-ice cover since 2007. Thus, the bifurcation hypothesis lacks consistent support, but there was an abrupt and persistent increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea-ice cover in 2007, which we describe as a (non-bifurcation) "tipping point". Our statistical methods detect this "tipping point" and its time of onset. We discuss potential geophysical mechanisms behind it, which should be the subject of further work with process-based models.

Where Is the Tipping Point? Bilateral Trade and the Diffusion of Human Rights

Abstract: Drawing on a panel of 136 countries over the period 1982–2004, we study a tipping point version of Vogel's ‘California Effect’ in the context of the diffusion of human rights practices. Because human rights practices are often deeply embedded in a society's customs and political institutions, we expect that a high level of pressure from the importing countries is needed to bring about changes in an exporting country's human rights records. We find strong empirical support for this threshold effect; provided that the average level of respect for human rights in importing countries is sufficiently high, trading relationships can operate as transmission belts for the diffusion of human rights practices from importing to exporting countries.

China at the Tipping Point?: Foreseeing the Unforeseeable

Abstract: The resilience of the Chinese authoritarian regime is approaching its limits. Theories of “threshold models” and “informational cascades” derived from the East German experience may help explain what happens next. China, however, is different from East Germany in several ways. Among other differences, it is not a client state and its economy is growing faster than those of its neighbors. Citizens are better informed about what other people think; the Chinese police are more skilled in the arts of repression, and the regime is more adaptive than other authoritarian regimes. A breakthrough moment could be triggered by several kinds of events. A key variable in the cascade model of political change is fear, and that seems to be diminishing.

Implications of global climate change for natural resource damage assessment, restoration, and rehabilitation.

Abstract: Various international and national regulations hold polluters liable for the cleanup of released hazardous substances and the restoration/rehabilitation of natural resources to preincident baseline conditions, a process often referred to as natural resource damage assessment and restoration (NRDAR). Here, we, the authors, describe how global climate change (GCC) will challenge each of the steps of NRDAR processes and offer eight recommendations to improve these processes in light of GCC. First, we call for a better understanding of the net effects of GCC and contaminants on natural resources. Second, we urge facilities and environmental managers to plan for GCC-related factors that are expected to increase the probability of contaminant releases. Third, we suggest re-evaluating definitions of baseline and reference conditions given that GCC will alter both their trajectories and variability. Fourth, we encourage long-term monitoring to improve the quantification of baseline conditions that will change as climate changes. This will enhance the accuracy of injury assessments, the effectiveness of restoration, and the detection of early warning signs that ecosystems are approaching tipping points. Fifth, in response to or anticipation of GCC, restoration projects may need to be conducted in areas distant from the site of injury or focused on functionally equivalent natural resources; thus, community involvement in NRDAR processes will be increasingly important. Sixth, we promote using NRDAR restoration projects as opportunities to mitigate GCC-related impacts. Seventh, we recommend adaptive management approaches to NRDAR processes and communication of successes and failures widely. Finally, we recommend focusing on managing the stressors that might be exacerbated by GCC, such as pollution and habitat loss, because there is a long history of successfully mitigating these stressors, which can be more easily managed on local scales than climate change. We believe that adoption of these recommendations will lead to a more efficacious NRDAR process, despite the challenges posed by climate change. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:93–101. © 2012 SETAC

Climate engineering and climate tipping-point scenarios

Abstract: Many scientists fear that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have set the Earth on a path of significant, possibly catastrophic, changes. This includes the possibility of exceeding particular thresholds or tipping points in the climate system. In response, governments have proposed emissions reduction targets, but no agreement has been reached. These facts have led some scientists and economists to suggest research into climate engineering. In this paper, we analyze the potential value of one climate engineering technology family, known as solar radiation management (SRM) to manage the risk of differing tipping-point scenarios. We find that adding SRM to a policy of emissions controls may be able to help manage the risk of climate tipping points and that its potential benefits are large. However, the technology does not exist and important indirect costs (e.g., change in precipitation) are not well understood. Thus, we conclude the SRM merits a serious research effort to better understand its efficiency and safety.

Arctic Voices. Resistance at the Tipping Point [Reseña de Libro]

Abstract: Resena de Libro: Subhankar Banerjee, ed., [Arctic Voices. Resistance at the Tipping Point] (New York: Seven Stories Press, 2012), 550 pp.

Wisdom in numbers.

Abstract: The author argues that society needs a unified conceptual framework for addressing questions of complexity, or issues that have many parts that can interact in many different ways that are difficult to predict before the issue reaches a tipping point and behavior changes radically. He suggests that as the Industrial Age generated the laws of thermodynamics, the modern age should develop laws of complexity to solve problems like financial uncertainty, rapid urbanization, and climate change.

Some Remarks on the Individual Contribution to Climate Change

Abstract: Climate change is one of the most important challenges of the 21st Century. As greenhouse gas concentration of the atmosphere has reached the 400ppm threshold of a 2°C global warming on 9 May 2013 and irreversible tipping points of the climatic system at some point of time have got even more likely, the question of the individual contribution to climate change becomes more and more virulent. For a long time, the absorption capacity of the environment has been regarded as limitless, and based on this perception, the economic entities used the environment for hundreds of years without constraints. Today, with progress of scientific knowledge, we are now aware of the possible negative impacts of climate change to environmental, economic and social systems on Earth. This awareness, however, did not lead to a significant change of individual behavior, because the perceived individual contribution to both the anthropogenic cause of climate change and its mitigation is still regarded as marginal. To encounter this misperception or “diffusion of environmental responsibility”, this article presents an alternative calculation of the individual contribution to climate change taking the incremental approach to a tipping point or a 2°C global warming threshold into account.

Institutional arrangements and public debt threshold limits

Abstract: Inter-governmental Organisations, such as the IMF and OECD, advocate a medium-term reduction in deficit spending and public debt accumulation among advanced economies to satisfy conditions of fiscal sustainability. Buttressing the need for fiscal austerity, Reinhart and Rogoff claim to have identified a so-called tipping point, beyond which public debt accumulation negatively affects economic growth. While recent data seem to indicate that some Eurozone (non-sovereign) economies have reached a tipping point, for other advanced (sovereign) economies, such as the US, UK and Japan, this is not clear. The mainstream tipping point literature however does not recognise the importance of institutional arrangements for the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy. Furthermore, the literature sheds little light on the transmission mechanism between high public debt and low economic growth. This article draws on the principles of Modern Monetary Theory to discuss institutional arrangements and to justify the theoretic...

China at the Tipping Point? The Turn Against Legal Reform

Abstract: What will be the future of China’s authoritarian political system? Many predicted that China’s rapid development over the past several decades would inevitably lead to gradual liberalization. Economic growth was expected to generate a cascade of changes — first to society, then law, and eventually politics. Events appeared to confirm these projections. As Chinese authorities opened up the economy in the late twentieth century, they also launched sweeping reforms of the nation’s legislative and judicial institutions.The events of the past decade, however, have called these assumptions into question. From 2000 to 2011, per capita GDP in China more than quintupled, skyrocketing from US$949 to $5,445. But one-party rule remains intact under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Chinese authorities have turned against many of the legal reforms that they themselves enacted back in the 1980s and 1990s. Lawyers have come under increased pressure. Political campaigns warning against rule-of-law norms have rippled through the courts. And under new policies making “stability maintenance” (weiwen) a top priority, central authorities have massively increased funding for extralegal institutions aimed at channeling, curtailing, and suppressing citizen discontent.These shifts have choked off institutions for venting dissatisfaction and redressing ills that are key to the CCP’s continued resilience as an authoritarian regime. The changes have fueled social unrest, funneling citizen grievances into a rising tide of street protests instead of institutionalized legal or political participation. And they have led to new worries at the center regarding the danger posed by individual CCP of- ficials (such as disgraced Chongqing CCP boss Bo Xilai) seizing parts of the weiwen apparatus for their own ends. For precisely these reasons, an increasing number of officials, academics, and activists have called on central authorities to revive flagging legal reforms in the wake of the November 2012 leadership succession.China may indeed be at a tipping point. But it is not clear which way it will tip. Authorities may restart legal reform as part of a comprehensive program of political and institutional transformation. Or they may refuse, risking an escalating spiral of social and political turmoil.

Global health and dental education: a tipping point?

Abstract: The global dimension of dental education is receiving increasing attention,[1][1] not least in the Journal of Dental Education, [2][2],[3][3] as well it should—for among other drivers of this development we now benefit from solid confirmation of the enormous global burden of oral and craniofacial

Digital engagement in nursing: a urology nurse's journey.

Abstract: The use of technology is transforming society—underpinning communication, information gathering and collaboration. Indeed, 2013 may prove to be the tipping point for healthcare delivery. No longer are policies and guidance documents being produced solely on the basis of cautions and negatives. We are entering a new era. Documents are now being produced that are constructive, focusing equally on positives and collaboration. Digital engagement within nursing and healthcare communities can be a tremendously positive experience; with the help of online resources, we can be part of the tipping point. From micro blogging to content communities, from collaborative projects to social networking, Web2.0 technology is providing 21st-century practitioners with opportunities we have not yet fully realised the potential of—for ourselves, our patients or our institutions. In this article, I share my personal journey, aiming to show my fellow healthcare practitioners how these technologies might be used to inform and im...

James Hansen and the Climate-Change Exit Strategy

Abstract: The world at present is fast approaching a climate cliff. Science tells us that an increase in global average temperature of 2°C (3.6° F) constitutes the planetary tipping point with respect to climate change, leading to irreversible changes beyond human control. A 2°C rise is sufficient to melt a significant portion of the world’s ice due to feedbacks that will hasten the melting. It will thus set the course to an ice-free world. Sea level will rise. Numerous islands will be threatened along with coastal regions throughout the globe. Extreme weather events (droughts, storms, floods) will be far more common. The paleoclimatic record shows that an increase in global average temperature of several degrees means that 50 percent or more of all species—plants and animals—will be driven to extinction. Global food crops will be negatively affected. This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website , where most recent articles are published in full. Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.

Exploring Possible Energy Futures for the Uk: Evolving Power Generation

Abstract: In response to the predictions of climate change models the EU has imposed very strong reductions in carbon emissions for the member nations. As a result the UK is signed up to reduce carbon emissions to 20% of their 1990 value by 2050. This will require a complete change in power generation over the next 40 years. But the system involved is clearly immensely complex, with multiple agents, levels of description, new technologies and new policies and actions. As part of the CASCADE research programme we propose to split the problem into two parts: a long term overarching model about the evolution of the generating capacity available, and a short term, detailed model of the wholesale and retail energy markets that links supply and demand. We describe the first of these, a relatively simple spatial, dynamic model that represents possible spatial patterns of electrical generation capacity from 2010 until 2050 aimed at tripling production and reducing CO2 emissions by 80%. Investment will be made into new low carbon generating capacity: wind farms, nuclear plants, bio-fuels, waste conversion and pyrolysis, tidal and wave marine plants and possibly clean coal or gas plants where the CO2 is sequestered. It allows the exploration of possible pathways to 2050, in which different choices and spatial patterns of investment are run. It provides an annual input scenario for a much more detailed, short time scale, agent based model of the UK wholesale and retail energy markets (Rylatt et al., 2013). Of course, over time the two models will provide feedback that will change the models and their parameters, as new technologies, costs and opportunities emerge.INTRODUCTIONToday, our own ecological, social and economic systems are seen by many to be at a crisis point. Energy is one of the most fundamental factors of all systems, and now after several hundred years of industrial and technological growth based on the unrestrained use of fossil fuels and easily available materials to multiply our own capacities for work many hundreds of times, this 'economic growth' system has possibly reached a 'tipping point'. Our models of climate change, now very sophisticated, suggest that continuing on a 'business as usual' path would quite possibly tip the planet into a major reconfiguration of its climatic, ecological and socioeconomic structure with catastrophic effects on the human population. Forty years ago the 'Limits to Growth' model was published (Meadows et ai, 1972). It was much criticized as being very simple and that running it for 200 years into the future was not 'scientific' as so much would change during this time. The model coupled the growth in populations, economic activities and resource use of the planet and showed that problems would arise around 2050. Among other books and articles this served to prompt the development of more, detailed models of various aspects of this, and in particular the links of climate to carbon emissions. Today there is very solid agreement that we have to reduce our carbon emissions and must change to low carbon energy sources if we are to avoid catastrophic climate change. Also, despite the relative simplicity of the Limits to Growth, is seems that they got it fairly right as we are still following their 'business as usual' trajectory 40 years later. Despite all the discussions and improved data and models we have not yet really responded to this real threat. Perhaps the power of the existing business and commercial establishments has succeeded in avoiding any real change or response at least until now.It is now accepted very broadly that there is a real threat and even some notable Republicans in the USA have recently backed President Obama because of his greater concern with this issue. Mayor Bloomberg of New York has said following Hurricane Sandy, "Our climate is changing and while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it might be-given this week's devastation-should compel all elected leaders to take immediate action. …

Marikana as a Tipping Point? The Political Economy of Labour Tensions in South Africa's Mining Industry and How Best to Resolve Them

Abstract: Before 16 August 2012, the platinum-mining South African town of Marikana was still largely unknown outside the mining sector. On that fateful day, everything changed. A toxic cocktail of a brutal police force and grievance-mobilised workers resulted in the death of 34 striking mineworkers. Tragedies such as Marikana tend to catalyse change – a potential tipping point on the trajectory of South Africa’s political economy. Given the salience of labour–employer and inter-union labour tensions as precipitating factors to Marikana, the paper asks what an optimal resolution of these tensions might look like for the sake of the industry and those it employs. It also suggests how such an outcome could plausibly be achieved within the existing parameters of de facto power in South Africa’s mining game. The paper contends that that there is a statistically significant negative relationship between labour tensions and mining investment attractiveness, controlling for commodity price increases and corruption. It also finds that the institutional context in South Africa’s mining sector currently creates incentives for unions to value violence and unprotected strikes over co-operation. The incumbent National Union of Mineworkers has a distinct interest in maintaining legislation that effectively crowds out union competition. Negotiations between mining houses and competing unions are characterised by a classic prisoners’ dilemma (PD), with players being held hostage by their relative constituents from arriving at a mutually beneficial outcome. Finally, the paper shows how this PD can be transformed into an assurance game through attaining a focal point such that co-operation is valued over violence. This would undergird sustainable performance in the mining industry in the long run that maximises employment, the benefit of which cannot be overstated in the South African context of poverty and inequality. A b o u t t h e A u t h o r Ross Harvey holds a Master of Philosophy degree in public policy from the University of Cape Town (UCT). He is a visiting research fellow for the Governance of Africa’s Resources programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs, and a PhD student at the UCT School of Economics. His research focuses on how Chinese investment in Africa’s minerals and energy sectors affects the nature of the elite bargain in host countries.