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Showing papers in "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 2020"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, model projections of tropical cyclone activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed and observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate that tropical cyclones respond well to global warming.
Abstract: Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate ...

536 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a method to solve the problem of homonymity in the context of homonyms.........................................................................................................Siii Siii S iii Siii.
Abstract: ........................................................................................................Siii

188 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is scheduled for launch in February 2020 to monitor air quality (AQ) at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution from a...
Abstract: The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is scheduled for launch in February 2020 to monitor air quality (AQ) at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution from a ...

161 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0-14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons and beyon... as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons and beyon...

134 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services.
Abstract: Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

118 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the horizontal resolution (or grid spacing) of climate models was refined to about 1 km using both global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCM) using both GCMs and RMCs.
Abstract: Currently major efforts are underway toward refining the horizontal resolution (or grid spacing) of climate models to about 1 km, using both global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCM...

111 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the impacts of hydrological extremes, in the form of droughts and floods, on a wide range of sectors including water availability, food security, and energy production.
Abstract: Hydrological extremes, in the form of droughts and floods, have impacts on a wide range of sectors including water availability, food security, and energy production. Given continuing large...

96 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Capsule SummaryContributions and the remaining challenges of COSMIC and other RO observations to weather, climate, and space weather since 2011 and potential contributions to research and operation as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Capsule SummaryContributions and the remaining challenges of COSMIC and other RO observations to weather, climate, and space weather since 2011 and potential contributions to research and operation...

94 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors highlight examples of current approaches to regional climate modeling, which address the need to understand and simulate climatic processes and phenomena unresolved in global models, and present several examples of such approaches.
Abstract: Regional climate modeling addresses our need to understand and simulate climatic processes and phenomena unresolved in global models. This paper highlights examples of current approaches to...

93 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: State of the Climate in 2019 as mentioned in this paper provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instru- ments located on land, water, ice, and in space.
Abstract: Global Climate is one chapter from the State of the Climate in 2019 annual report and is avail- able from https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0104.1 Compiled by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate in 2019 is based on contributions from scien- tists from around the world. It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instru- ments located on land, water, ice, and in space. The full report is available from https://doi.org/10.1175/2020BAMSStateoftheClimate.1.

73 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article highlights several strategies and practical considerations for neural network development that have not yet received much attention in the meteorological community, such as the concept of receptive fields, underutilized meteorological performance measures, and methods for Neural network interpretation,such as synthetic experiments and layer-wise relevance propagation.
Abstract: The method of neural networks (aka deep learning) has opened up many new opportunities to utilize remotely sensed images in meteorology. Common applications include image classification, e.g., to determine whether an image contains a tropical cyclone, and image-to-image translation, e.g., to emulate radar imagery for satellites that only have passive channels. However, there are yet many open questions regarding the use of neural networks for working with meteorological images, such as best practices for evaluation, tuning and interpretation. This article highlights several strategies and practical considerations for neural network development that have not yet received much attention in the meteorological community, such as the concept of receptive fields, underutilized meteorological performance measures, and methods for neural network interpretation, such as synthetic experiments and layer-wise relevance propagation. We also consider the process of neural network interpretation as a whole, recognizing it as an iterative meteorologist-driven discovery process that builds on experimental design and hypothesis generation and testing. Finally, while most work on neural network interpretation in meteorology has so far focused on networks for image classification tasks, we expand the focus to also include networks for image-to-image translation. 12

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an operational capacity for monitoring anthropogenic CO2 emissions as a new CO2 service under the EC's Copernicus program, which adopts a holistic view and includes components such as atmospheric spaceborne and in situ measurements, bottom-up CO2 emission maps, improved modeling of the carbon cycle, an operational data-assimilation system integrating top-down and bottomup information, and a policy-relevant decision support tool.
Abstract: Under the Paris Agreement (PA), progress of emission reduction efforts is tracked on the basis of regular updates to national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, referred to as bottom-up estimates. However, only top-down atmospheric measurements can provide observation-based evidence of emission trends. Today, there is no internationally agreed, operational capacity to monitor anthropogenic GHG emission trends using atmospheric measurements to complement national bottom-up inventories. The European Commission (EC), the European Space Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and international experts are joining forces to develop such an operational capacity for monitoring anthropogenic CO2 emissions as a new CO2 service under the EC's Copernicus program. Design studies have been used to translate identified needs into defined requirements and functionalities of this anthropogenic CO2 emissions Monitoring and Verification Support (CO2MVS) capacity. It adopts a holistic view and includes components such as atmospheric spaceborne and in situ measurements, bottom-up CO2 emission maps, improved modeling of the carbon cycle, an operational data-assimilation system integrating top-down and bottom-up information, and a policy-relevant decision support tool. The CO2MVS capacity with operational capabilities by 2026 is expected to visualize regular updates of global CO2 emissions, likely at 0.05° x 0.05°. This will complement the PA's enhanced transparency framework, providing actionable information on anthropogenic CO2 emissions that are the main driver of climate change. This information will be available to all stakeholders, including governments and citizens, allowing them to reflect on trends and effectiveness of reduction measures. The new EC gave the green light to pass the CO2MVS from exploratory to implementing phase.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: CapsuleCASEarth Poles aims to construct a big data platform to better serve polar data acquisition, curation, integration, sharing and application, and improve the understanding of the polar environmen...
Abstract: Unprecedented changes in the climate and environment have been observed in the three poles, including the North Pole, the South Pole, and the Third Pole–Tibetan Plateau. Although considerable data have been collected and several observation networks have been built in these polar regions, the three poles are relatively data-scarce regions due to inaccessible data acquisition, high-cost labor, and difficult living environments. To address the obstacles to better understanding the unprecedented changes in the three poles and their effects on the global environment and humans, there is a pressing need for better data acquisition, curation, integration, service, and application to support fundamental scientific research and sustainable development for the three poles. CASEarth Poles, a project within the framework of the “CAS Big Earth Data Science Engineering” program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, aims to construct a big data platform for the three poles. CASEarth Poles will be devoted to 1) breaking the bottleneck of polar data curation, integration, and sharing; 2) developing high-resolution remote sensing products over the three poles; 3) generating atmospheric reanalysis datasets for the polar regions; 4) exploring the synchronization, asynchronization, and teleconnection of the environmental changes in the three poles; 5) investigating the climate, water cycle, and ecosystem dynamics and the interactions among the multispheres in the polar regions and their global effects; and 6) supporting decision-making with regard to sea ice forecasting, infrastructure, and sustainable development in polar regions. CASEarth Poles will collaborate with international efforts to enable better data and information services for the three poles in the big data era.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Explaining Extreme Events of 2018 report as mentioned in this paper is a very low-resolution file and can be found in pdf format on the web site of the University of Southern California Libraries.
Abstract: Editors note: For easy download the posted pdf of the Explaining Extreme Events of 2018 is a very low-resolution file. A high-resolution copy of the report is available by clicking here. Pl...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the installation of a network of five automatic weather stations (AWSs), including the two highest stations on Earth (8,430m.a.s.l and 7,945m.sl) which greatly improves monitoring of this iconic mountain.
Abstract: As the highest mountain on Earth, Mount Everest is an iconic peak that offers an unrivalled natural platform for measuring ongoing climate change across the full elevation range of Asia’s water towers. However, Everest’s extreme environment challenges data collection, particularly on the mountain’s upper slopes, where glaciers accumulate mass and mountaineers are most exposed. Weather stations have operated on Everest before, including the world’s previous highest, but coverage has been sparse in space and time. Here we describe the installation of a network of five automatic weather stations (AWSs), including the two highest stations on Earth (8,430 m.a.s.l and 7,945 m.a.s.l) which greatly improves monitoring of this iconic mountain. We highlight sample applications of the new data, including an initial assessment of surface energy fluxes at Camp II (6,464 m.a.s.l) and the South Col (7,945 m.a.s.l), which suggest melt occurs at both sites, despite persistently below-freezing air temperatures. This analysis indicates that melt may even be possible at the 8,850 m.a.s.l summit, and prompts a re-evaluation of empirical temperature index models used to simulate glacier melt in the Himalaya that focus only on air temperature. We also provide the first evaluation of numerical weather forecasts at almost 8,000 m.a.s.l and use of model output statistics to reduce forecast error, showcasing an important opportunity to improve climber safety on Everest. Looking forward, we emphasize the considerable potential of these freely available data for understanding weather and climate in the Himalaya and beyond, including tracking the behavior of upper-atmosphere winds, which the AWS network is uniquely positioned to monitor.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, minimum sea level pressure is more easily quantified than maximum sustained wind, and it shows a stronger relationship with hurricane risk for the continental United States than wind power.
Abstract: Capsule SummaryMinimum sea level pressure is more easily quantified than maximum sustained wind, and it shows a stronger relationship with hurricane risk for the continental United States.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe how citizen weather stations are rapidly increasing in prevalence and are becoming an emerging source of weather information, and how low-cost consumer-grade devices provide observations in real time.
Abstract: Citizen weather stations are rapidly increasing in prevalence and are becoming an emerging source of weather information. These low-cost consumer-grade devices provide observations in real ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Predicting the changes in teleconnection patterns and related hydroclimate extremes can provide vital information necessary to adapt to the effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Predicting the changes in teleconnection patterns and related hydroclimate extremes can provide vital information necessary to adapt to the effects of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (ARM WARE) as discussed by the authors collected a full year of atmospheric and remote sensing data from the United States Department of Energy and US Antarctic Program field campaign.
Abstract: Capsule SummaryThe ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment, a joint US Department of Energy and US Antarctic Program field campaign, collected a full year of atmospheric and remote sensing data tha...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: For example, the Far-Infrared Outgoing Radiation Understanding and Monitoring (FORUM) mission has recently been selected as ESA's ninth Earth Explorer mission for launch in 2026 as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) emitted to space is a fundamental component of the Earth’s energy budget. There are numerous, entangled physical processes that contribute to OLR and that are responsible for driving, and responding to, climate change. Spectrally resolved observations can disentangle these processes, but technical limitations have precluded accurate space-based spectral measurements covering the far infrared (FIR) from 100 to 667 cm−1 (wavelengths between 15 and 100 µm). The Earth’s FIR spectrum is thus essentially unmeasured even though at least half of the OLR arises from this spectral range. The region is strongly influenced by upper-tropospheric–lower-stratospheric water vapor, temperature lapse rate, ice cloud distribution, and microphysics, all critical parameters in the climate system that are highly variable and still poorly observed and understood. To cover this uncharted territory in Earth observations, the Far-Infrared Outgoing Radiation Understanding and Monitoring (FORUM) mission has recently been selected as ESA’s ninth Earth Explorer mission for launch in 2026. The primary goal of FORUM is to measure, with high absolute accuracy, the FIR component of the spectrally resolved OLR for the first time with high spectral resolution and radiometric accuracy. The mission will provide a benchmark dataset of global observations which will significantly enhance our understanding of key forcing and feedback processes of the Earth’s atmosphere to enable more stringent evaluation of climate models. This paper describes the motivation for the mission, highlighting the scientific advances that are expected from the new measurements.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, ground-based lidar and drone observations can fill this gap and improve high-impact high-resolution data in the planetary boundary layer, where the current operational observing systems are lacking data.
Abstract: Capsule SummaryThe current operational observing systems are lacking data in the planetary boundary layer. Novel ground based lidar and drone observations can fill this gap and improve high-impact ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS) as discussed by the authors is a multinational network of sustained oceanic measurements that underpin understanding and forecasting of weather and climate for the Indian Ocean region and beyond.
Abstract: The Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), established in 2006, is a multinational network of sustained oceanic measurements that underpin understanding and forecasting of weather and climate for the Indian Ocean region and beyond Almost one-third of humanity lives around the Indian Ocean, many in countries dependent on fisheries and rain-fed agriculture that are vulnerable to climate variability and extremes The Indian Ocean alone has absorbed a quarter of the global oceanic heat uptake over the last two decades and the fate of this heat and its impact on future change is unknown Climate models project accelerating sea level rise, more frequent extremes in monsoon rainfall, and decreasing oceanic productivity In view of these new scientific challenges, a 3-yr international review of the IndOOS by more than 60 scientific experts now highlights the need for an enhanced observing network that can better meet societal challenges, and provide more reliable forecasts Here we present core findings from this review, including the need for 1) chemical, biological, and ecosystem measurements alongside physical parameters; 2) expansion into the western tropics to improve understanding of the monsoon circulation; 3) better-resolved upper ocean processes to improve understanding of air–sea coupling and yield better subseasonal to seasonal predictions; and 4) expansion into key coastal regions and the deep ocean to better constrain the basinwide energy budget These goals will require new agreements and partnerships with and among Indian Ocean rim countries, creating opportunities for them to enhance their monitoring and forecasting capacity as part of IndOOS-2

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Saildrone surface vehicle as mentioned in this paper collected data on a round-trip, 60-day cruise from San Francisco Bay, down the U.S. and into the Atlantic Ocean.
Abstract: From 11 April to 11 June 2018 a new type of ocean observing platform, the Saildrone surface vehicle, collected data on a round-trip, 60-day cruise from San Francisco Bay, down the U.S. and ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed to understand human activities and atmospheric processes governing carbonaceous aerosol lifecycle and impacts is vital to alleviating climate change and air quality in South Asia.
Abstract: Capsule“Understanding human activities and atmospheric processes governing carbonaceous aerosol lifecycle and impacts is vital to alleviating climate change and air quality in South Asia”

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe progress made over the past decade developing, delivering, and using climate services, in particular from the worldwide effort galvanizing around the Global Framework for Climate Services under the coordination of UN agencies.
Abstract: There is growing awareness among governments, businesses, and the general public of risks arising from changes to our climate on time scales from months through to decades. Some climatic changes could be unprecedented in their harmful socioeconomic impacts, while others with adequate forewarning and planning could offer benefits. There is therefore a pressing need for decision-makers, including policy-makers, to have access to and to use high-quality, accessible, relevant, and credible climate information about the past, present, and future to help make better-informed decisions and policies. We refer to the provision and use of such information as climate services. Established programs of research and operational activities are improving observations and climate monitoring, our understanding of climate processes, climate variability and change, and predictions and projections of the future climate. Delivering climate information (including data and knowledge) in a way that is usable and useful for decision-makers has had less attention, and society has yet to optimally benefit from the available information. While weather services routinely help weather-sensitive decision-making, similar services for decisions on longer time scales are less well established. Many organizations are now actively developing climate services, and a growing number of decision-makers are keen to benefit from such services. This article describes progress made over the past decade developing, delivering, and using climate services, in particular from the worldwide effort galvanizing around the Global Framework for Climate Services under the coordination of UN agencies. The article highlights challenges in making further progress and proposes potential new directions to address such challenges.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the International Society for Atmospheric Science (ISAS) supports the use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in atmospheric science applications, and the authors propose a UAS-based UAV-based system for atmospheric science.
Abstract: Because unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) offer new perspectives on the atmosphere, their use in atmospheric science is expanding rapidly. In support of this growth, the International Society...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, unique data from seven flights of the Coyote small unmanned aircraft system (sUAS) were collected in Hurricanes Maria (2017) and Michael (2018) using NOAA's P-3 reconnaissance aircraft as...
Abstract: Unique data from seven flights of the Coyote small unmanned aircraft system (sUAS) were collected in Hurricanes Maria (2017) and Michael (2018). Using NOAA’s P-3 reconnaissance aircraft as ...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: CapsuleAtmospheric River Reconnaissance (CARR) is a multi-year research and operations partnership to evaluate the potential of targeted airborne observations over the Northeast Pacific to improve forecas...
Abstract: CapsuleAtmospheric River Reconnaissance is a multi-year research and operations partnership to evaluate the potential of targeted airborne observations over the Northeast Pacific to improve forecas...

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Thoman et al. as mentioned in this paper investigated the role of the International Arctic Research Center (IARC) in the assessment and policy of the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (ANH).
Abstract: Assessment and Policy, University of Alaska Fairbanks; BhaTT— Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Geophysical Institute, and International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks; Bieniek, BreTTschneider, Lader, and WaLsh— International Arctic Research Center (IARC), University of Alaska Fairbanks; BruBaker—Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, Anchorage, Alaska; danieLson—College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks; LaBe—Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine; meier—National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder; sheffieLd—Alaska Sea Grant, College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Nome, Alaska CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Richard L. Thoman Jr., rthoman@alaska.edu

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that each 0.5°C of global warming is likely to increase annual flood losses in China by over 60 billion USD, and they show that such an increase in flood losses would be catastrophic.
Abstract: Capsule SummaryLinking climatic and economic projections, we show that each 0.5°C of global warming is likely to increase annual flood losses in China by over 60 billion USD.