Showing papers by "Thomas T. Veblen published in 2018"

Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change.

Abstract: Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi-regional dataset of 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from the US Rocky Mountains to ask if and how changing climate over the last several decades impacted post-fire tree regeneration, a key indicator of forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in tree regeneration in the 21st century. Annual moisture deficits were significantly greater from 2000 to 2015 as compared to 1985–1999, suggesting increasingly unfavourable post-fire growing conditions, corresponding to significantly lower seedling densities and increased regeneration failure. Dry forests that already occur at the edge of their climatic tolerance are most prone to conversion to non-forests after wildfires. Major climate-induced reduction in forest density and extent has important consequences for a myriad of ecosystem services now and in the future.

Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome

Abstract: Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001–2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes.

Influences of fire–vegetation feedbacks and post-fire recovery rates on forest landscape vulnerability to altered fire regimes

Abstract: 1Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Front Royal, VA, USA; 2Department of Mathematics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA; 3Department of Geography, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA; 4School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; 5Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA; 6Laboratorio Ecotono, INIBIOMA, CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Bariloche, Río Negro, Argentina; 7Departamento de Ecología, Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Bariloche, Río Negro, Argentina and 8Center for Tropical Forest Science– Forest Global Earth Observatory, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama

Moisture availability limits subalpine tree establishment.

Abstract: In the absence of broad-scale disturbance, many temperate coniferous forests experience successful seedling establishment only when abundant seed production coincides with favorable climate. Identifying the frequency of past establishment events and the climate conditions favorable for seedling establishment is essential to understanding how climate warming could affect the frequency of future tree establishment events and therefore future forest composition or even persistence of a forest cover. In the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, research on the sensitivity of establishment of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa)-two widely distributed, co-occurring conifers in North America-to climate variability has focused on the alpine treeline ecotone, leaving uncertainty about the sensitivity of these species across much of their elevation distribution. We compared annual germination dates for >450 Engelmann spruce and >500 subalpine fir seedlings collected across a complex topographic-moisture gradient to climate variability in the Colorado Front Range. We found that Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir established episodically with strong synchrony in establishment events across the study area. Broad-scale establishment events occurred in years of high soil moisture availability, which were characterized by above-average snowpack and/or cool and wet summer climatic conditions. In the recent half of the study period (1975-2010), a decrease in the number of fir and spruce establishment events across their distribution coincided with declining snowpack and a multi-decadal trend of rising summer temperature and increasing moisture deficits. Counter to expected and observed increases in tree establishment with climate warming in maritime subalpine forests, our results show that recruitment declines will likely occur across the core of moisture-limited subalpine tree ranges as warming drives increased moisture deficits.

Landscape drivers of recent fire activity (2001-2017) in south-central Chile.

Abstract: In recent decades large fires have affected communities throughout central and southern Chile with great social and ecological consequences. Despite this high fire activity, the controls and drivers and the spatiotemporal pattern of fires are not well understood. To identify the large-scale trends and drivers of recent fire activity across six regions in south-central Chile (~32–40° S Latitude) we evaluated MODIS satellite-derived fire detections and compared this data with Chilean Forest Service records for the period 2001–2017. MODIS burned area estimates provide a spatially and temporally comprehensive record of fire activity across an important bioclimatic transition zone between dry Mediterranean shrublands/sclerophyllous forests and wetter deciduous-broadleaf evergreen forests. Results suggest fire activity was highly variable in any given year, with no statistically significant trend in the number of fires or mean annual area burned. Evaluation of the variables associated with spatiotemporal patterns of fire for the 2001–2017 period indicate vegetation type, biophysical conditions (e.g., elevation, slope), mean annual and seasonal climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation) and mean population density have the greatest influence on the probability of fire occurrence and burned area for any given year. Both the number of fires and annual area burned were greatest in warmer, biomass-rich lowland Bio-Bio and Araucania regions. Resource selection analyses indicate fire ‘preferentially’ occurs in exotic plantation forests, mixed native-exotic forests, native sclerophyll forests, pasture lands and matorral, vegetation types that all provide abundant, flammable and connected biomass for burning. Structurally and compositionally homogenous exotic plantation forests may promote fire spread greater than native deciduous-Nothofagaceae forests which were once widespread in the southern parts of the study area. In the future, the coincidence of warmer and drier conditions in landscapes dominated by flammable and fuel-rich forest plantations and mixed native-exotic and sclerophyll forests are likely to further promote large fires in south-central Chile.

Climate Change Amplifications of Climate‐Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

Abstract: Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea-surface temperature and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment, slowing the pace of population range shifts

Abstract: Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species' range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.

Radial growth response to climate change along the latitudinal range of the world's southernmost conifer in southern South America

Abstract: Aim: We examined whether and how tree radial-growth responses to climate have changed for the world’s southernmost conifer species throughout its latitudinal distribution following rapid climate change in the second half of the 20th century. Location: Temperate forests in southern South America. Methods: New and existing tree-ring radial growth chronologies representing the entire latitudinal range of Pilgerodendron uviferum were grouped according to latitude and then examined for differences in growth trends and non-stationarity in growth responses to a drought severity index (scPDSI) over the 1900–1993 AD period and also before and after significant shifts in climate in the 1950s and 1970s. Results: The radial-growth response of P. uviferum climate was highly variable across its full latitudinal distribution. There was a long-term and positive association between radial growth and higher moisture at the northern and southern edges of the distribution of this species and the opposite relationship for the core of its distribution, especially following the climatic shifts of the 1950s and 1970s. In addition, non-stationarity in moisture-radial growth relationships was observed in all three latitudinal groups (southern and northern edges and core) for all seasons during the 20th century. Main conclusions: Climate shifts in southern South America in the 1950s and 1970s resulted in different responses in the mean radial growth of P. uviferum at the southern and northern edges and at the core of its range. Dendroclimatic analyses document that during the first half of the 20th century climate-growth relationships were relatively similar between the southern and northern range edges but diverged after the 1950s. Our findings imply that simulated projections of climate impacts on tree growth, and by implication on forest ecosystem productivity, derived from models of past climate-growth relationships need to carefully consider different and non-stationarity responses along the wide latitudinal distribution of this species.

Correction: Landscape drivers of recent fire activity (2001-2017) in south-central Chile

Abstract: [This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0201195.].

Different vital rates of Engelmann spruce and subalpine fir explain discordance in understory and overstory dominance

Abstract: Studies of forest dynamics commonly assume that species composition of the seedling bank reflects the composition of the future forest canopy However, many forest types exhibit persistent differen

Pre-outbreak forest conditions mediate the effects of spruce beetle outbreaks on fuels in subalpine forests of Colorado

Abstract: Over the past 30 years, forest disturbances have increased in size, intensity, and frequency globally, and are predicted to continue increasing due to climate change, potentially relaxing the constraints of vegetation properties on disturbance regimes. However, the consequences of the potentially declining importance of vegetation in determining future disturbance regimes are not well understood. Historically, bark beetles preferentially attack older trees and stands in later stages of development. However, as climate warming intensifies outbreaks by promoting growth of beetle populations and compromising tree defenses, smaller diameter trees and stands in early stages of development now are being affected by outbreaks. To date, no study has considered how stand age and other pre-outbreak forest conditions mediate the effects of outbreaks on surface and aerial fuel arrangements. We collected fuels data across a chronosequence of post-outbreak sites affected by spruce beetle (SB) between the 1940s and the 2010s, stratified by young ( 130 yr) post-fire stands. Canopy and surface fuel loads were calculated for each tree and stand, and available crown fuel load, crown bulk density, and canopy bulk densities were estimated. Canopy bulk density and density of live canopy individuals were reduced in all stands affected by SB, though foliage loss was proportionally greater in old stands as compared to young stands. Fine surface fuel loads in young stands were three times greater shortly (<30 yr) following outbreak as compared to young stands not affected by outbreak, after which the abundance of fine surface fuels decreased to below endemic (i.e., non-outbreak) levels. In both young and old stands, the net effect of SB outbreaks during the 20th and 21st centuries reduced total canopy fuels and increased stand-scale spatial heterogeneity of canopy fuels following outbreak. Importantly, the decrease in canopy fuels following outbreaks was greater in young post-fire stands than in older stands, suggesting that SB outbreaks may more substantially reduce risk of active crown fire when they affect stands in earlier stages of development. The current study shows that the effects of SB outbreaks on forest structure and on fuel profiles are strongly contingent on pre-outbreak conditions as determined by pre-outbreak disturbance history.