Showing papers in "Ecological Applications in 2017"

Grassland management impacts on soil carbon stocks: a new synthesis.

Abstract: Grassland ecosystems cover a large portion of Earths’ surface and contain substantial amounts of soil organic carbon. Previous work has established that these soil carbon stocks are sensitive to management and land use changes: grazing, species composition, and mineral nutrient availability can lead to losses or gains of soil carbon. Because of the large annual carbon fluxes into and out of grassland systems, there has been growing interest in how changes in management might shift the net balance of these flows, stemming losses from degrading grasslands or managing systems to increase soil carbon stocks (i.e., carbon sequestration). A synthesis published in 2001 assembled data from hundreds of studies to document soil carbon responses to changes in management. Here we present a new synthesis that has integrated data from the hundreds of studies published after our previous work. These new data largely confirm our earlier conclusions: improved grazing management, fertilization, sowing legumes and improved grass species, irrigation, and conversion from cultivation all tend to lead to increased soil C, at rates ranging from 0.105 to more than 1 Mg C·ha−1·yr−1. The new data include assessment of three new management practices: fire, silvopastoralism, and reclamation, although these studies are limited in number. The main area in which the new data are contrary to our previous synthesis is in conversion from native vegetation to grassland, where we find that across the studies the average rate of soil carbon stock change is low and not significant. The data in this synthesis confirm that improving grassland management practices and conversion from cropland to grassland improve soil carbon stocks.

Acoustic telemetry and fisheries management.

Abstract: This paper reviews the use of acoustic telemetry as a tool for addressing issues in fisheries management, and serves as the lead to the special Feature Issue of Ecological Applications titled Acoustic Telemetry and Fisheries Management. Specifically, we provide an overview of the ways in which acoustic telemetry can be used to inform issues central to the ecology, conservation, and management of exploited and/or imperiled fish species. Despite great strides in this area in recent years, there are comparatively few examples where data have been applied directly to influence fisheries management and policy. We review the literature on this issue, identify the strengths and weaknesses of work done to date, and highlight knowledge gaps and difficulties in applying empirical fish telemetry studies to fisheries policy and practice. We then highlight the key areas of management and policy addressed, as well as the challenges that needed to be overcome to do this. We conclude with a set of recommendations about how researchers can, in consultation with stock assessment scientists and managers, formulate testable scientific questions to address and design future studies to generate data that can be used in a meaningful way by fisheries management and conservation practitioners. We also urge the involvement of relevant stakeholders (managers, fishers, conservation societies, etc.) early on in the process (i.e., in the co-creation of research projects), so that all priority questions and issues can be addressed effectively.

Brazil's worst mining disaster: Corporations must be compelled to pay the actual environmental costs.

Abstract: In November 2015, a large mine-tailing dam owned by Samarco Corporation collapsed in Brazil, generating a massive wave of toxic mud that spread down the Doce River, killing 20 people and affecting biodiversity across hundreds of kilometers of river, riparian lands, and Atlantic coast. Besides the disaster's serious human and socioeconomic tolls, we estimate the regional loss of environmental services to be ~US$521 million per year. Although our estimate is conservative, it is still six times higher than the fine imposed on Samarco by Brazilian environmental authorities. To reduce such disparities between estimated damages and levied fines, we advocate for an environmental bond policy that considers potential risks and environmental services that could possibly be impacted by irresponsible mining activity. Environmental bonds and insurance are commonly used policy instruments in many countries, but there are no clear environmental bond policies in Brazil. Environmental bonds are likely to be more effective at securing environmental restitution than post-disaster fines, which generally are inadequate and often unpaid. We estimate that at least 126 mining dams in Brazil are vulnerable to failure in the forthcoming years. Any such event could have severe social-environmental consequences, underscoring the need for effective disaster-management strategies for large-scale mining operations.

Predicting life history parameters for all fishes worldwide

Abstract: Scientists and resource managers need to know life history parameters (e.g., average mortality rate, individual growth rate, maximum length or mass, and timing of maturity) to understand and respond to risks to natural populations and ecosystems. For over 100 years, scientists have identified "life history invariants" (LHI) representing pairs of parameters whose ratio is theorized to be constant across species. LHI then promise to allow prediction of many parameters from field measurements of a few important traits. Using LHI in this way, however, neglects any residual patterns in parameters when making predictions. We therefore apply a multivariate model for eight variables (seven parameters and temperature) in over 32,000 fishes, and include taxonomic structure for residuals (with levels for class, order, family, genus, and species). We illustrate that this approach predicts variables probabilistically for taxa with many or few data. We then use this model to resolve three questions regarding life history parameters in fishes. Specifically we show that (1) on average there is a 1.24% decrease in the Brody growth coefficient for every 1% increase in maximum size; (2) the ratio of natural mortality rate and growth coefficient is not an LHI but instead varies systematically based on the timing of maturation, where movement along this life history axis is predictably correlated with species taxonomy; and (3) three variables must be known per species to precisely predict remaining life history variables. We distribute our predictive model as an R package, FishLife, to allow future life history predictions for fishes to be conditioned on taxonomy and life history data for fishes worldwide. This package also contains predictions (and predictive intervals) for mortality, maturity, size, and growth parameters for all described fishes.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

Abstract: Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought-fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought-fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate.

Protected areas as social-ecological systems: perspectives from resilience and social-ecological systems theory.

Abstract: Conservation biology and applied ecology increasingly recognize that natural resource management is both an outcome and a driver of social, economic, and ecological dynamics. Protected areas offer a fundamental approach to conserving ecosystems, but they are also social-ecological systems whose ecological management and sustainability are heavily influenced by people. This editorial, and the papers in the invited feature that it introduces, discuss three emerging themes in social-ecological systems approaches to understanding protected areas: (1) the resilience and sustainability of protected areas, including analyses of their internal dynamics, their effectiveness, and the resilience of the landscapes within which they occur; (2) the relevance of spatial context and scale for protected areas, including such factors as geographic connectivity, context, exchanges between protected areas and their surrounding landscapes, and scale dependency in the provision of ecosystem services; and (3) efforts to reframe what protected areas are and how they both define and are defined by the relationships of people and nature. These emerging themes have the potential to transform management and policy approaches for protected areas and have important implications for conservation, in both theory and practice.

Prediction in ecology: a first-principles framework.

Abstract: Quantitative predictions are ubiquitous in ecology, yet there is limited discussion on the nature of prediction in this field. Herein I derive a general quantitative framework for analyzing and partitioning the sources of uncertainty that control predictability. The implications of this framework are assessed conceptually and linked to classic questions in ecology, such as the relative importance of endogenous (density dependent) versus exogenous factors, stability versus drift, and the spatial scaling of processes. The framework is used to make a number of novel predictions and reframe approaches to experimental design, model selection, and hypothesis testing. Next, the quantitative application of the framework to partitioning uncertainties is illustrated using a short-term forecast of net ecosystem exchange. Finally, I advocate for a new comparative approach to studying predictability across different ecological systems and processes and lay out a number of hypotheses about what limits predictability and how these limits should scale in space and time. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Salinization triggers a trophic cascade in experimental freshwater communities with varying food-chain length

Abstract: The application of road deicing salts in northern regions worldwide is changing the chemical environment of freshwater ecosystems. Chloride levels in many lakes, streams, and wetlands exceed the chronic and acute thresholds established by the United States and Canada for the protection of freshwater biota. Few studies have identified the impacts of deicing salts in stream and wetland communities and none have examined impacts in lake communities. We tested how relevant concentrations of road salt (15, 100, 250, 500, and 1000 mg Cl−/L) interacted with experimental communities containing two or three trophic levels (i.e., no fish vs. predatory fish). We hypothesized that road salt and fish would have a negative synergistic effect on zooplankton, which would then induce a trophic cascade. We tested this hypothesis in outdoor mesocosms containing filamentous algae, periphyton, phytoplankton, zooplankton, several macroinvertebrate species, and fish. We found that the presence of fish and high salt had a negative synergistic effect on the zooplankton community, which in turn caused an increase in phytoplankton. Contributing to the magnitude of this trophic cascade was a direct positive effect of high salinity on phytoplankton abundance. Cascading effects were limited with respect to impacts on the benthic food web. Periphyton and snail grazers were unaffected by the salt-induced trophic cascade, but the biomass of filamentous algae decreased as a result of competition with phytoplankton for light or nutrients. We also found direct negative effects of high salinity on the biomass of filamentous algae and amphipods (Hyalella azteca) and the mortality of banded mystery snails (Viviparus georgianus) and fingernail clams (Sphaerium simile). Clam mortality was dependent on the presence of fish, suggesting a non-consumptive interactive effect with salt. Our results indicate that globally increasing concentrations of road salt can alter community structure via both direct and indirect effects.

Evidence of fuels management and fire weather influencing fire severity in an extreme fire event

Abstract: Following changes in vegetation structure and pattern, along with a changing climate, large wildfire incidence has increased in forests throughout the western United States. Given this increase, there is great interest in whether fuels treatments and previous wildfire can alter fire severity patterns in large wildfires. We assessed the relative influence of previous fuels treatments (including wildfire), fire weather, vegetation, and water balance on fire-severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We did this at three different spatial scales to investigate whether the influences on fire severity changed across scales. Both fuels treatments and previous low to moderate-severity wildfire reduced the prevalence of high-severity fire. In general, areas without recent fuels treatments and areas that previously burned at high severity tended to have a greater proportion of high-severity fire in the Rim Fire. Areas treated with prescribed fire, especially when combined with thinning, had the lowest proportions of high severity. The proportion of the landscape burned at high severity was most strongly influenced by fire weather and proportional area previously treated for fuels or burned by low to moderate severity wildfire. The proportion treated needed to effectively reduce the amount of high severity fire varied by spatial scale of analysis, with smaller spatial scales requiring a greater proportion treated to see an effect on fire severity. When moderate and high-severity fire encountered a previously treated area, fire severity was significantly reduced in the treated area relative to the adjacent untreated area. Our results show that fuels treatments and low to moderate-severity wildfire can reduce fire severity in a subsequent wildfire, even when burning under fire growth conditions. These results serve as further evidence that both fuels treatments and lower severity wildfire can increase forest resilience.

Limits on carbon sequestration in arid blue carbon ecosystems

Abstract: Coastal ecosystems produce and sequester significant amounts of carbon ("blue carbon"), which has been well documented in humid and semi-humid regions of temperate and tropical climates but less so in arid regions where mangroves, marshes, and seagrasses exist near the limit of their tolerance for extreme temperature and salinity. To better understand these unique systems, we measured whole-ecosystem carbon stocks in 58 sites across the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in natural and planted mangroves, salt marshes, seagrass beds, microbial mats, and coastal sabkha (inter- and supratidal unvegetated salt flats). Natural mangroves held significantly more carbon in above- and belowground biomass than other vegetated ecosystems. Planted mangrove carbon stocks increased with age, but there were large differences for sites of similar age. Soil carbon varied widely across sites (2-367 Mg C/ha), with ecosystem averages that ranged from 49 to 156 Mg C/ha. For the first time, microbial mats were documented to contain soil carbon pools comparable to vascular plant-dominated ecosystems, and could arguably be recognized as a unique blue carbon ecosystem. Total ecosystem carbon stocks ranged widely from 2 to 515 Mg C/ha (seagrass bed and mangrove, respectively). Seagrass beds had the lowest carbon stock per unit area, but the largest stock per total area due to their large spatial coverage. Compared to similar ecosystems globally, mangroves and marshes in the UAE have lower plant and soil carbon stocks; however, the difference in soil stocks is far larger than with plant stocks. This incongruent difference between stocks is likely due to poor carbon preservation under conditions of weakly reduced soils (200-350 mV), coarse-grained sediments, and active shoreline migration. This work represents the first attempt to produce a country-wide coastal ecosystem carbon accounting using a uniform sampling protocol, and was motivated by specific policy goals identified by the Abu Dhabi Global Environmental Data Initiative. These carbon stock data supported two objectives: to quantify carbon stocks and infer sequestration capacity in arid blue carbon ecosystems, and to explore the potential to incorporate blue carbon science into national reporting and planning documents.

Incorporating larval dispersal into MPA design for both conservation and fisheries.

Abstract: Larval dispersal by ocean currents is a critical component of systematic marine protected area (MPA) design. However, there is a lack of quantitative methods to incorporate larval dispersal in support of increasingly diverse management objectives, including local population persistence under multiple types of threats (primarily focused on larval retention within and dispersal between protected locations) and benefits to unprotected populations and fisheries (primarily focused on larval export from protected locations to fishing grounds). Here, we present a flexible MPA design approach that can reconcile multiple such potentially conflicting management objectives by balancing various associated treatments of larval dispersal information. We demonstrate our approach based on alternative dispersal patterns, combinations of threats to populations, management objectives, and two different optimization strategies (site vs. network-based). Our outcomes highlight a consistently high effectiveness in selecting priority locations that are self-replenishing, inter-connected, and/or important larval sources. We find that the opportunity to balance these three dispersal attributes flexibly can help not only to prevent meta-population collapse, but also to ensure effective fisheries recovery, with average increases in the number of recruits at fishing grounds at least two times higher than achieved by standard habitat-based or ad-hoc MPA designs. Future applications of our MPA design approach should therefore be encouraged, specifically where management tools other than MPAs are not feasible.

Inland waters and their role in the carbon cycle of Alaska.

Abstract: The magnitude of Alaska (AK) inland waters carbon (C) fluxes is likely to change in the future due to amplified climate warming impacts on the hydrology and biogeochemical processes in high latitude regions. Although current estimates of major aquatic C fluxes represent an essential baseline against which future change can be compared, a comprehensive assessment for AK has not yet been completed. To address this gap, we combined available data sets and applied consistent methodologies to estimate river lateral C export to the coast, river and lake carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and methane (CH4 ) emissions, and C burial in lakes for the six major hydrologic regions in the state. Estimated total aquatic C flux for AK was 41 Tg C/yr. Major components of this total flux, in Tg C/yr, were 18 for river lateral export, 17 for river CO2 emissions, and 8 for lake CO2 emissions. Lake C burial offset these fluxes by 2 Tg C/yr. River and lake CH4 emissions were 0.03 and 0.10 Tg C/yr, respectively. The Southeast and South central regions had the highest temperature, precipitation, terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), and C yields (fluxes normalized to land area) were 77 and 42 g C·m-2 ·yr-1 , respectively. Lake CO2 emissions represented over half of the total aquatic flux from the Southwest (37 g C·m-2 ·yr-1 ). The North Slope, Northwest, and Yukon regions had lesser yields (11, 15, and 17 g C·m2 ·yr-1 ), but these estimates may be the most vulnerable to future climate change, because of the heightened sensitivity of arctic and boreal ecosystems to intensified warming. Total aquatic C yield for AK was 27 g C·m-2 ·yr-1 , which represented 16% of the estimated terrestrial NPP. Freshwater ecosystems represent a significant conduit for C loss, and a more comprehensive view of land-water-atmosphere interactions is necessary to predict future climate change impacts on the Alaskan ecosystem C balance.

Unmanned aerial vehicles for surveying marine fauna: assessing detection probability.

Abstract: Aerial surveys are conducted for various fauna to assess abundance, distribution, and habitat use over large spatial scales. They are traditionally conducted using light aircraft with observers recording sightings in real time. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) offer an alternative with many potential advantages, including eliminating human risk. To be effective, this emerging platform needs to provide detection rates of animals comparable to traditional methods. UAVs can also acquire new types of information, and this new data requires a reevaluation of traditional analyses used in aerial surveys; including estimating the probability of detecting animals. We conducted 17 replicate UAV surveys of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) while simultaneously obtaining a ‘census’ of the population from land-based observations, to assess UAV detection probability. The ScanEagle UAV, carrying a digital SLR camera, continuously captured images (with 75% overlap) along transects covering the visual range of land-based observers. We also used ScanEagle to conduct focal follows of whale pods (n = 12, mean duration = 40 min), to assess a new method of estimating availability. A comparison of the whale detections from the UAV to the land-based census provided an estimated UAV detection probability of 0.33 (CV = 0.25; incorporating both availability and perception biases), which was not affected by environmental covariates (Beaufort sea state, glare, and cloud cover). According to our focal follows, the mean availability was 0.63 (CV = 0.37), with pods including mother/calf pairs having a higher availability (0.86, CV = 0.20) than those without (0.59, CV = 0.38). The follows also revealed (and provided a potential correction for) a downward bias in group size estimates from the UAV surveys, which resulted from asynchronous diving within whale pods, and a relatively short observation window of 9 s. We have shown that UAVs are an effective alternative to traditional methods, providing a detection probability that is within the range of previous studies for our target species. We also describe a method of assessing availability bias that represents spatial and temporal characteristics of a survey, from the same perspective as the survey platform, is benign, and provides additional data on animal behavior.

Considerations for assessing model averaging of regression coefficients

Abstract: Model choice is usually an inevitable source of uncertainty in model-based statistical analyses. While the focus of model choice was traditionally on methods for choosing a single model, methods to formally account for multiple models within a single analysis are now accessible to many researchers. The specific technique of model averaging was developed to improve predictive ability by combining predictions from a set of models. However, it is now often used to average regression coefficients across multiple models with the ultimate goal of capturing a variable's overall effect. This use of model averaging implicitly assumes the same parameter exists across models so that averaging is sensible. While this assumption may initially seem tenable, regression coefficients associated with particular explanatory variables may not hold equivalent interpretations across all of the models in which they appear, making explanatory inference about covariates challenging. Accessibility to easily implementable software, concerns about being criticized for ignoring model uncertainty, and the chance to avoid having to justify choice of a final model have all led to the increasing popularity of model averaging in practice. We see a gap between the theoretical development of model averaging and its current use in practice, potentially leaving well-intentioned researchers with unclear inferences or difficulties justifying reasons for using (or not using) model averaging. We attempt to narrow this gap by revisiting some relevant foundations of regression modeling, suggesting more explicit notation and graphical tools, and discussing how individual model results are combined to obtain a model averaged result. Our goal is to help researchers make informed decisions about model averaging and to encourage question-focused modeling over method-focused modeling.

Big biology meets microclimatology: defining thermal niches of ectotherms at landscape scales for conservation planning.

Abstract: Temperature profoundly affects ecology, a fact ever more evident as the ability to measure thermal environments increases and global changes alter these environments. The spatial structure of thermalscapes is especially relevant to the distribution and abundance of ectothermic organisms, but the ability to describe biothermal relationships at extents and grains relevant to conservation planning has been limited by small or sparse data sets. Here, we combine a large occurrence database of >23 000 aquatic species surveys with stream microclimate scenarios supported by an equally large temperature database for a 149 000-km mountain stream network to describe thermal relationships for 14 fish and amphibian species. Species occurrence probabilities peaked across a wide range of temperatures (7.0–18.8°C) but distinct warm- or cold-edge distribution boundaries were apparent for all species and represented environments where populations may be most sensitive to thermal changes. Warm-edge boundary temperatures for a native species of conservation concern were used with geospatial data sets and a habitat occupancy model to highlight subsets of the network where conservation measures could benefit local populations by maintaining cool temperatures. Linking that strategic approach to local estimates of habitat impairment remains a key challenge but is also an opportunity to build relationships and develop synergies between the research, management, and regulatory communities. As with any data mining or species distribution modeling exercise, care is required in analysis and interpretation of results, but the use of large biological data sets with accurate microclimate scenarios can provide valuable information about the thermal ecology of many ectotherms and a spatially explicit way of guiding conservation investments.

Mammal diversity and metacommunity dynamics in urban green spaces: implications for urban wildlife conservation

Abstract: As urban growth expands and natural environments fragment, it is essential to understand the ecological roles fulfilled by urban green spaces. To evaluate how urban green spaces function as wildlife habitat, we estimated mammal diversity and metacommunity dynamics in city parks, cemeteries, golf courses, and natural areas throughout the greater Chicago, Illinois, USA region. We found similar α-diversity (with the exception of city parks), but remarkably dissimilar communities in different urban green spaces. Additionally, the type of urban green space greatly influenced species colonization and persistence rates. For example, coyotes (Canis latrans) had the highest, but white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) the lowest probability of persistence in golf courses compared to other green space types. Further, most species had a difficult time colonizing city parks even when sites were seemingly available. Our results indicate that urban green spaces contribute different, but collectively important, habitats for maintaining and conserving biodiversity in cities.

A new theory of plant–microbe nutrient competition resolves inconsistencies between observations and model predictions

Abstract: Terrestrial plants assimilate anthropogenic CO2 through photosynthesis and synthesizing new tissues. However, sustaining these processes requires plants to compete with microbes for soil nutrients, which therefore calls for an appropriate understanding and modeling of nutrient competition mechanisms in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we survey existing plant-microbe competition theories and their implementations in ESMs. We found no consensus regarding the representation of nutrient competition and that observational and theoretical support for current implementations are weak. To reconcile this situation, we applied the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation (ECA) theory to plant-microbe nitrogen competition in a detailed grassland 15 N tracer study and found that competition theories in current ESMs fail to capture observed patterns and the ECA prediction simplifies the complex nature of nutrient competition and quantitatively matches the 15 N observations. Since plant carbon dynamics are strongly modulated by soil nutrient acquisition, we conclude that (1) predicted nutrient limitation effects on terrestrial carbon accumulation by existing ESMs may be biased and (2) our ECA-based approach may improve predictions by mechanistically representing plant-microbe nutrient competition.

Diet of generalist predators reflects effects of cropping period and farming system on extra- and intraguild prey

Abstract: The suppression of agricultural pests by natural enemies, including generalist arthropod predators, is an economically important regulating ecosystem service. Besides pests, generalist predators may also consume non-pest extraguild and intraguild prey, which can affect their impact on pest populations. This may either reduce the impact of generalist predators on pest populations, because they are diverted from pest predation, or increase it, as it helps them survive periods of low pest availability. However, the availability of pest prey and alternative, non-pest prey can vary over the crop growing season and between farming systems, potentially affecting predator-prey interactions and the levels of biological control. We have limited information about how farming systems and environmental variation over the crop growing season influence predator diets. This limits our ability to predict the importance of generalist predators as natural enemies of agricultural pests. Here we utilize molecular gut content analyses to assess detection frequencies of extra- and intraguild prey DNA in generalist predator communities in replicated organically and conventionally managed cereal fields at two key periods of the cropping season for aphid biological control. This is done in order to understand how farming system, crop season, prey availability and predator community composition determine the composition of predator diets. Aphid pests and decomposers (springtails) were equally important prey for generalist predators early in the growing season. Later in the season, the importance of aphid prey increased with increasing aphid densities while springtail predation rates were positively correlated to abundance of this prey at both early and late crop growth stages. Intraguild predation was unidirectional: carabids fed on spiders, whereas spiders rarely fed on carabids. Carabids had higher detection frequencies for the two most common spider families in organically compared to conventionally managed fields. Our study documents that predation by generalist predator communities on aphid pests increases with pest numbers independently of their generally widespread consumption of alternative, non-pest prey. Therefore, conservation strategies in agricultural fields could promote biological control services by promoting high levels of alternative non-pest prey for generalist predator communities.

What mediates tree mortality during drought in the southern Sierra Nevada

Abstract: Severe drought has the potential to cause selective mortality within a forest, thereby inducing shifts in forest species composition. The southern Sierra Nevada foothills and mountains of California have experienced extensive forest dieback due to drought stress and insect outbreak. We used high-fidelity imaging spectroscopy (HiFIS) and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) to estimate the effect of forest dieback on species composition in response to drought stress in Sequoia National Park. Our aims were (1) to quantify site-specific conditions that mediate tree mortality along an elevation gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, (2) to assess where mortality events have a greater probability of occurring, and (3) to estimate which tree species have a greater likelihood of mortality along the elevation gradient. A series of statistical models were generated to classify species composition and identify tree mortality, and the influences of different environmental factors were spatially quantified and analyzed to assess where mortality events have a greater likelihood of occurring. A higher probability of mortality was observed in the lower portion of the elevation gradient, on southwest- and west-facing slopes, in areas with shallow soils, on shallower slopes, and at greater distances from water. All of these factors are related to site water balance throughout the landscape. Our results also suggest that mortality is species-specific along the elevation gradient, mainly affecting Pinus ponderosa and Pinus lambertiana at lower elevations. Selective mortality within the forest may drive long-term shifts in community composition along the elevation gradient.

Forest management scenarios in a changing climate: trade‐offs between carbon, timber, and old forest

Abstract: Balancing economic, ecological and social values has long been a challenge in the forests of the Pacific Northwest, where conflict over timber harvest and old-growth habitat on public lands has been contentious for the past several decades. The Northwest Forest Plan, adopted two decades ago to guide management on federal lands, is currently being revised as the region searches for a balance between sustainable timber yields and habitat for sensitive species. In addition, climate change imposes a high degree of uncertainty on future forest productivity, sustainability of timber harvest, wildfire risk, and species habitat. We evaluated the long-term, landscape-scale tradeoffs among carbon (C) storage, timber yield, and old forest habitat given projected climate change and shifts in forest management policy across 2.1 million hectares of forests in the Oregon Coast Range. Projections highlight the divergence between private and public lands under business-as-usual forest management, where private industrial forests are heavily harvested and many public (especially federal) lands increase C and old forest over time but provide little timber. Three alternative management scenarios altering the amount and type of timber harvest show widely varying levels of ecosystem C and old-forest habitat. On federal lands, ecological forestry practices also allowed a simultaneous increase in old forest and natural early-seral habitat. The ecosystem C implications of shifts away from current practices were large, with current practices retaining up to 105 Tg more C than the alternative scenarios by the end of the century. Our results suggest climate change is likely to increase forest productivity by 30-41% and total ecosystem C storage by 11-15% over the next century as warmer winter temperatures allow greater forest productivity in cooler months. These gains in C storage are unlikely to be offset by wildfire under climate change, due to the legacy of management and effective fire suppression. Our scenarios of future conditions can inform policy makers, land managers, and the public about the potential effects of land management alternatives, climate change, and the tradeoffs that are inherent to management and policy in the region. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Breeding density, fine-scale tracking and large-scale modeling reveal the regional distribution of four seabird species

Abstract: Population-level estimates of species' distributions can reveal fundamental ecological processes and facilitate conservation. However, these may be difficult to obtain for mobile species, especially colonial central-place foragers (CCPFs; e.g., bats, corvids, social insects), because it is often impractical to determine the provenance of individuals observed beyond breeding sites. Moreover, some CCPFs, especially in the marine realm (e.g., pinnipeds, turtles, and seabirds) are difficult to observe because they range tens to ten thousands of kilometers from their colonies. It is hypothesized that the distribution of CCPFs depends largely on habitat availability and intraspecific competition. Modeling these effects may therefore allow distributions to be estimated from samples of individual spatial usage. Such data can be obtained for an increasing number of species using tracking technology. However, techniques for estimating population-level distributions using the telemetry data are poorly developed. This is of concern because many marine CCPFs, such as seabirds, are threatened by anthropogenic activities. Here, we aim to estimate the distribution at sea of four seabird species, foraging from approximately 5,500 breeding sites in Britain and Ireland. To do so, we GPS-tracked a sample of 230 European Shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis, 464 Black-legged Kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, 178 Common Murres Uria aalge, and 281 Razorbills Alca torda from 13, 20, 12, and 14 colonies, respectively. Using Poisson point process habitat use models, we show that distribution at sea is dependent on (1) density-dependent competition among sympatric conspecifics (all species) and parapatric conspecifics (Kittiwakes and Murres); (2) habitat accessibility and coastal geometry, such that birds travel further from colonies with limited access to the sea; and (3) regional habitat availability. Using these models, we predict space use by birds from unobserved colonies and thereby map the distribution at sea of each species at both the colony and regional level. Space use by all four species' British breeding populations is concentrated in the coastal waters of Scotland, highlighting the need for robust conservation measures in this area. The techniques we present are applicable to any CCPF.

Understanding the demographic drivers of realized population growth rates

Abstract: Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt = Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed “transient life-table response experiments” with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for lesser scaup over 60 years, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in lesser scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of lesser scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about lesser scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Fish wariness is a more sensitive indicator to changes in fishing pressure than abundance, length or biomass

Abstract: Identifying the most sensitive indicators to changes in fishing pressure is important for accurately detecting impacts. Biomass is thought to be more sensitive than abundance and length, while the wariness of fishes is emerging as a new metric. Periodically harvested closures (PHCs) that involve the opening and closing of an area to fishing are the most common form of fisheries management in the western Pacific. The opening of PHCs to fishing provides a unique opportunity to compare the sensitivity of metrics, such as abundance, length, biomass and wariness, to changes in fishing pressure. Diver-operated stereo video (stereo-DOV) provides data on fish behavior (using a proxy for wariness, minimum approach distance) simultaneous to abundance and length estimates. We assessed the impact of PHC protection and harvesting on the abundance, length, biomass, and wariness of target species using stereo-DOVs. This allowed a comparison of the sensitivity of these metrics to changes in fishing pressure across four PHCs in Fiji, where spearfishing and fish drives are common. Before PHCs were opened to fishing they consistently decreased the wariness of targeted species but were less likely to increase abundance, length, or biomass. Pulse harvesting of PHCs resulted in a rapid increase in the wariness of fishes but inconsistent impacts across the other metrics. Our results suggest that fish wariness is the most sensitive indicator of fishing pressure, followed by biomass, length, and abundance. The collection of behavioral data simultaneously with abundance, length, and biomass estimates using stereo-DOVs offers a cost-effective indicator of protection or rapid increases in fishing pressure. Stereo-DOVs can rapidly provide large amounts of behavioral data from monitoring programs historically focused on estimating abundance and length of fishes, which is not feasible with visual methods.

Wild, connected, and diverse: building a more resilient system of protected areas.

Abstract: Current systems of conservation reserves may be insufficient to sustain biodiversity in the face of climate change and habitat losses. Consequently, calls have been made to protect Earth's remaining wildlands and complete the system of protected areas by establishing conservation reserves that (1) better represent ecosystems, (2) increase connectivity to facilitate biota movement in response to stressors including climate change, and (3) promote species persistence within intact landscapes. Using geospatial data, we conducted an assessment for expanding protected areas within the contiguous United States to include the least human-modified wildlands, establish a connected network, and better represent ecosystem diversity and hotspots of biodiversity. Our composite map highlights areas of high value to achieve these goals in the western United States, where existing protected areas and lands with high ecological integrity are concentrated. We also identified important areas in the East rich in species and containing ecosystems that are poorly represented in the existing protected area system. Expanding protection to these priority areas is ultimately expected to create a more resilient system for protecting the nation's biological heritage. This expectation should be subject to rigorous testing prior to implementation, and regional monitoring will ensure areas and actions are adjusted over time.

Improved management of small pelagic fisheries through seasonal climate prediction.

Abstract: Populations of small pelagic fish are strongly influenced by climate. The inability of managers to anticipate environment-driven fluctuations in stock productivity or distribution can lead to overfishing and stock collapses, inflexible management regulations inducing shifts in the functional response to human predators, lost opportunities to harvest populations, bankruptcies in the fishing industry, and loss of resilience in the human food supply. Recent advances in dynamical global climate prediction systems allow for sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions at a seasonal scale over many shelf ecosystems. Here we assess the utility of SST predictions at this "fishery relevant" scale to inform management, using Pacific sardine as a case study. The value of SST anomaly predictions to management was quantified under four harvest guidelines (HGs) differing in their level of integration of SST data and predictions. The HG that incorporated stock biomass forecasts informed by skillful SST predictions led to increases in stock biomass and yield, and reductions in the probability of yield and biomass falling below socioeconomic or ecologically acceptable levels. However, to mitigate the risk of collapse in the event of an erroneous forecast, it was important to combine such forecast-informed harvest controls with additional harvest restrictions at low biomass.

Annual precipitation regulates spatial and temporal drivers of lake water clarity.

Abstract: Understanding how and why lakes vary and respond to different drivers through time and space is needed to understand, predict, and manage freshwater quality in an era of rapidly changing land use and climate. Water clarity regulates many characteristics of aquatic ecosystems and is responsive to watershed features, making it a sentinel of environmental change. However, whether precipitation alters the relative importance of features that influence lake water clarity or the spatial scales at which they operate is unknown. We used a data set of thousands of northern temperate lakes and asked (1) How does water clarity differ between a very wet vs. dry year? (2) Does the relative importance of different watershed features, or the spatial extent at which they are measured, vary between wet and dry years? (3) What lake and watershed characteristics regulate long-term water clarity trends? Among lakes, water clarity was reduced and less variable in the wet year than in the dry year; furthermore, water clarity was reduced much more in high-clarity lakes during the wet year than in low-clarity lakes. Climate, land use/land cover, and lake morphometry explained most variance in clarity among lakes in both years, but the spatial scales at which some features were important differed between the dry and wet years. Watershed percent agriculture was most important in the dry year, whereas riparian zone percent agriculture (around each lake and upstream features) was most important in the wet year. Between 1991 and 2012, water clarity declined in 23% of lakes and increased in only 6% of lakes. Conductance influenced the direction of temporal trend (clarity declined in lakes with low conductance), whereas the proportion of watershed wetlands, catchment-to-lake-area ratio, and lake maximum depth interacted with antecedent precipitation. Many predictors of water clarity, such as lake depth and landscape position, are features that cannot be readily managed. Given trends of increasing precipitation, eliminating riparian zone agriculture or keeping it <10% of area may be an effective option to maintain or improve water clarity.

Impacts of different land management histories on forest change.

Abstract: Many western North American forest types have experienced considerable changes in ecosystem structure, composition, and function as a result of both fire exclusion and timber harvesting. These two influences co-occurred over a large portion of dry forests, making it difficult to know the strength of either one on its own or the potential for an interaction between the two. In this study, we used contemporary remeasurements of a systematic historical forest inventory to investigate forest change in the Sierra Nevada. The historical data opportunistically spanned a significant land management agency boundary, which protected part of the inventory area from timber harvesting. This allowed for a robust comparison of forest change between logged and unlogged areas. In addition, we assessed the effects of recent management activities aimed at forest restoration relative to the same areas historically, and to other areas without recent management. Based on analyses of 22,007 trees (historical, 9,573; contemporary, 12,434), live basal area and tree density significantly increased from 1911 to the early 2000s in both logged and unlogged areas. Both shrub cover and the proportion of live basal area occupied by pine species declined from 1911 to the early 2000s in both areas, but statistical significance was inconsistent. The most notable difference between logged and unlogged areas was in the density of large trees, which declined significantly in logged areas, but was unchanged in unlogged areas. Recent management activities had a varied impact on the forest structure and composition variables analyzed. In general, areas with no recent management activities experienced the greatest change from 1911 to the early 2000s. If approximating historical forest conditions is a land management goal the documented changes in forest structure and composition from 1911 to the early 2000s indicate that active restoration, including fire use and mechanical thinning, is needed in many areas.

A global trait-based approach to estimate leaf nitrogen functional allocation from observations.

Abstract: Nitrogen is one of the most important nutrients for plant growth and a major constituent of proteins that regulate photosynthetic and respiratory processes. However, a comprehensive global analysis of nitrogen allocation in leaves for major processes with respect to different plant functional types (PFTs) is currently lacking. This study integrated observations from global databases with photosynthesis and respiration models to determine plant-functional-type-specific allocation patterns of leaf nitrogen for photosynthesis (Rubisco, electron transport, light absorption) and respiration (growth and maintenance), and by difference from observed total leaf nitrogen, an unexplained "residual" nitrogen pool. Based on our analysis, crops partition the largest fraction of nitrogen to photosynthesis (57%) and respiration (5%) followed by herbaceous plants (44% and 4%). Tropical broadleaf evergreen trees partition the least to photosynthesis (25%) and respiration (2%) followed by needle-leaved evergreen trees (28% and 3%). In trees (especially needle-leaved evergreen and tropical broadleaf evergreen trees) a large fraction (70% and 73%, respectively) of nitrogen was not explained by photosynthetic or respiratory functions. Compared to crops and herbaceous plants, this large residual pool is hypothesized to emerge from larger investments in cell wall proteins, lipids, amino acids, nucleic acid, CO2 fixation proteins (other than Rubisco), secondary compounds, and other proteins. Our estimates are different from previous studies due to differences in methodology and assumptions used in deriving nitrogen allocation estimates. Unlike previous studies, we integrate and infer nitrogen allocation estimates across multiple PFTs, and report substantial differences in nitrogen allocation across different PFTs. The resulting pattern of nitrogen allocation provides insights on mechanisms that operate at a cellular scale within leaves, and can be integrated with ecosystem models to derive emergent properties of ecosystem productivity at local, regional, and global scales.

Toward inventory-based estimates of soil organic carbon in forests of the United States

Abstract: Soil organic carbon (SOC) is the largest terrestrial carbon (C) sink on Earth; this pool plays a critical role in ecosystem processes and climate change. Given the cost and time required to measure SOC, and particularly changes in SOC, many signatory nations to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change report estimates of SOC stocks and stock changes using default values from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or country-specific models. In the United States, SOC in forests is monitored by the national forest inventory (NFI) conducted by the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program within the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. The FIA program has been consistently measuring soil attributes as part of the NFI since 2001 and has amassed an extensive inventory of SOC in forest land in the conterminous United States and southeast and southcentral coastal Alaska. That said, the FIA program has been using country-specific predictions of SOC based, in part, upon a model using SOC estimates from the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) database compiled by the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Estimates obtained from the STATSGO database are averages over large map units and are not expected to provide accurate estimates for specific locations, e.g., NFI plots. To improve the accuracy of SOC estimates in U.S. forests, NFI SOC observations were used for the first time to predict SOC density to a depth of 100 cm for all forested NFI plots. Incorporating soil-forming factors along with observations of SOC into a new estimation framework resulted in a 75% (48 ± 0.78 Mg/ha) increase in SOC densities nationally. This substantially increases the contribution of the SOC pool, from approximately 44% (17 Pg) of the total forest ecosystem C stocks to 56% (28 Pg), in the forest C budget of the United States.

Roads to ruin: conservation threats to a sentinel species across an urban gradient

Abstract: Urbanization poses a global challenge to species conservation. This is primarily understood in terms of physical habitat loss, as agricultural and forested lands are replaced with urban infrastructure. However, aquatic habitats are also chemically degraded by urban development, often in the form of toxic stormwater runoff. Here we assess threats of urbanization to coho salmon throughout developed areas of the Puget Sound Basin in Washington, USA. Puget Sound coho are a sentinel species for freshwater communities and also a species of concern under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Previous studies have demonstrated that stormwater runoff is unusually lethal to adult coho that return to spawn each year in urban watersheds. To further explore the relationship between land use and recurrent coho die-offs, we measured mortality rates in field surveys of 51 spawning sites across an urban gradient. We then used spatial analyses to measure landscape attributes (land use and land cover, human population density, roadways, traffic intensity, etc.) and climatic variables (annual summer and fall precipitation) associated with each site. Structural equation modeling revealed a latent urbanization gradient that was associated with road density and traffic intensity, among other variables, and positively related to coho mortality. Across years within sites, mortality increased with summer and fall precipitation, but the effect of rainfall was strongest in the least developed areas and was essentially neutral in the most urbanized streams. We used the best-supported structural equation model to generate a predictive mortality risk map for the entire Puget Sound Basin. This map indicates an ongoing and widespread loss of spawners across much of the Puget Sound population segment, particularly within the major regional north-south corridor for transportation and development. Our findings identify current and future urbanization-related threats to wild coho, and show where green infrastructure and similar clean water strategies could prove most useful for promoting species conservation and recovery.