Dependence between high sea-level and high river discharge increases flood hazard in global deltas and estuaries
Philip J. Ward,Anaïs Couasnon,Dirk Eilander,Ivan D. Haigh,Alistair Hendry,Sanne Muis,Ted Veldkamp,Ted Veldkamp,Hessel Winsemius,Hessel Winsemius,Thomas Wahl +10 more
TLDR
In this paper, the first assessment and mapping of the dependence between observed high sea-levels and high river discharge for deltas and estuaries around the globe was provided, and the dependence may influence the joint probability of floods exceeding both the design discharge and design sea-level.Abstract:
When river and coastal floods coincide, their impacts are often worse than when they occur in isolation; such floods are examples of ‘compound events’. To better understand the impacts of these compound events, we require an improved understanding of the dependence between coastal and river flooding on a global scale. Therefore, in this letter, we: provide the first assessment and mapping of the dependence between observed high sea-levels and high river discharge for deltas and estuaries around the globe; and demonstrate how this dependence may influence the joint probability of floods exceeding both the design discharge and design sea-level. The research was carried out by analysing the statistical dependence between observed sea-levels (and skew surge) from the GESLA-2 dataset, and river discharge using gauged data from the Global Runoff Data Centre, for 187 combinations of stations across the globe. Dependence was assessed using Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient () and copula models. We find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 22% of the stations studied, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 36% of the stations studied. Allowing a time-lag between the two variables up to 5 days, we find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 56% of stations, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 54% of stations. Using copula models, we show that the joint exceedance probability of events in which both the design discharge and design sea-level are exceeded can be several magnitudes higher when the dependence is considered, compared to when independence is assumed. We discuss several implications, showing that flood risk assessments in these regions should correctly account for these joint exceedance probabilities.read more
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A typology of compound weather and climate events
Jakob Zscheischler,Jakob Zscheischler,Olivia Martius,Olivia Martius,Seth Westra,Emanuele Bevacqua,Colin Raymond,Colin Raymond,Radley M. Horton,Bart van den Hurk,Amir AghaKouchak,Aglaé Jézéquel,Aglaé Jézéquel,Miguel D. Mahecha,Miguel D. Mahecha,Douglas Maraun,Alexandre M. Ramos,Nina Ridder,Wim Thiery,Edoardo Vignotto +19 more
TL;DR: A typology of compound events is proposed, distinguishing events that are preconditioned, multivariate, temporally compounding and spatially compounding, and suggests analytical and modelling approaches to aid in their investigation.
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Understanding and managing connected extreme events
Colin Raymond,Colin Raymond,Radley M. Horton,Jakob Zscheischler,Olivia Martius,Amir AghaKouchak,Jennifer K. Balch,Steven G. Bowen,Suzana J. Camargo,Jeremy J. Hess,Kai Kornhuber,Michael Oppenheimer,Alex C. Ruane,Thomas Wahl,Kathleen D. White +14 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a multidisciplinary argument for the concept of connected extreme events is presented, and vantage points and approaches for producing climate information useful in guiding decisions about them are discussed.
Journal ArticleDOI
Higher probability of compound flooding from precipitation and storm surge in Europe under anthropogenic climate change.
Emanuele Bevacqua,Douglas Maraun,Michalis Vousdoukas,Evangelos Voukouvalas,Mathieu Vrac,Lorenzo Mentaschi,Martin Widmann +6 more
TL;DR: Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, it is shown that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present, however, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast.
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Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes
Hayley J. Fowler,Geert Lenderink,Andreas F. Prein,Seth Westra,Richard P. Allan,Nikolina Ban,Renaud Barbero,Peter Berg,Stephen Blenkinsop,Hong Xuan Do,Hong Xuan Do,Selma B. Guerreiro,Jan O. Haerter,Jan O. Haerter,Elizabeth J. Kendon,Elizabeth Lewis,Christoph Schaer,Ashish Sharma,Gabriele Villarini,Conrad Wasko,Xuebin Zhang +20 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding and concluded that short-duration and long-duration (>1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture.
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Combined Modeling of US Fluvial, Pluvial, and Coastal Flood Hazard Under Current and Future Climates
Paul D. Bates,Niall Quinn,Christopher C. Sampson,Andrew Smith,Oliver E. J. Wing,Jeison Sosa,James Savage,Gaia Olcese,Jeffrey Neal,Guy Schumann,Laura Giustarini,Gemma Coxon,Jeremy R. Porter,Jeremy R. Porter,Mike F. Amodeo,Ziyan Chu,Sharai Lewis-Gruss,Neil Freeman,Trevor Houser,Michael S. Delgado,A. Hamidi,Ian Bolliger,Kelly E. McCusker,Kerry Emanuel,Celso M. Ferreira,Arslaan Khalid,Ivan D. Haigh,Anaïs Couasnon,Robert E. Kopp,Solomon Hsiang,Witold F. Krajewski +30 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30m spatial resolution, which includes updated hydrography data, new methods to determine channel d...
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