Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change
W. Gareth Rees,Annika Hofgaard,Stéphane Boudreau,David M. Cairns,Karen A. Harper,Steven D. Mamet,Ingrid Ertshus Mathisen,Zuzanna M. Swirad,Olga Tutubalina +8 more
TLDR
The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradicts equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrants caution when assessing global change related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.Abstract:
Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103 -104 m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global-change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.read more
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Mountain treelines climb slowly despite rapid climate warming
Xiaoming Lu,Eryuan Liang,Eryuan Liang,Yafeng Wang,Flurin Babst,Flurin Babst,J. Julio Camarero +6 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a meta-analysis of treeline shift rates at 143 sites from 38 published studies was conducted at the hemispheric scale and for two geographic subsets of subarctic and temperate regions (south of 60°N).
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Global fading of the temperature–growth coupling at alpine and polar treelines
J. Julio Camarero,Antonio Gazol,Raúl Sánchez-Salguero,Raúl Sánchez-Salguero,Alex Fajardo,Eliot J. B. McIntire,Emilia Gutiérrez,Enric Batllori,Stéphane Boudreau,Marco Carrer,Jeff Diez,Geneviève Dufour-Tremblay,Narayan Prasad Gaire,Narayan Prasad Gaire,Annika Hofgaard,Vincent Jomelli,Alexander V. Kirdyanov,Alexander V. Kirdyanov,Esther Lévesque,Eryuan Liang,Juan Carlos Linares,Ingrid Ertshus Mathisen,Pavel Moiseev,Gabriel Sangüesa-Barreda,Krishna B. Shrestha,Johanna M. Toivonen,Olga Tutubalina,Martin Wilmking +27 more
TL;DR: This article quantified and modeled the relationship between temperature and radial growth at treeline during the 20th century and tested whether this temperature-growth association will remain stable during the 21st century using a forward model under two climate scenarios (RCP 45 and 85).
Journal ArticleDOI
Satellite observations document trends consistent with a boreal forest biome shift
Logan T. Berner,Scott J. Goetz +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors quantified interannual trends in annual maximum vegetation greenness using an ensemble of vegetation indices derived from Landsat observations at 100,000 sample sites in areas without signs of recent disturbance.
Journal ArticleDOI
Shrub expansion in the Arctic may induce large‐scale carbon losses due to changes in plant‐soil interactions
Thomas C. Parker,Alana M Thurston,Katrine Raundrup,Jens-Arne Subke,Philip A. Wookey,Iain P. Hartley +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that shrub expansion will cause changes in rhizosphere processes, including the development of new mycorrhizal associations that have the potential to promote soil carbon losses that substantially exceed C gains in plant biomass.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sufficient conditions for rapid range expansion of a boreal conifer
TL;DR: In this article , the authors describe a population of white spruce (Picea glauca) advancing at post-LGM rates across an Arctic basin distant from established treelines and provide evidence of mechanisms sustaining the advance.
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