Journal ArticleDOI
Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction and teleconnections in the S2S database
TLDR
In this paper, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been diagnosed in the World Weather Research Program (WWRP)/WCRP Sub-seasonal-to-Seasonal prediction project (S2S) database using the Wheeler and Hendon index over the common hindcast period 1999-2010.Abstract:
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been diagnosed in the World Weather Research Program (WWRP)/World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Sub-seasonal-to-Seasonal prediction project (S2S) database using the Wheeler and Hendon index (Wheeler and Hendon 2004) over the common hindcast period 1999–2010 The S2S models display skill to predict the MJO between 2 and 4 weeks The majority of S2S models tend to produce a weaker MJO than in ERA Interim, with a phase speed decreasing with lead time
All the S2S models produce realistic patterns of MJO teleconnections at 500 hPa, with an increased probability of positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following an active MJO over the Indian ocean and of negative NAO following an active MJO over the west Pacific However, the amplitude of the MJO teleconnection patterns are significantly weaker than in ERA Interim over the Euro Atlantic sector and are often too strong over the western North Pacific Models with lower horizontal resolution tend to produce weaker teleconnections In the lower stratosphere, several S2S models produce teleconnections which are too strong compared to ERA Interim These results suggest that although the S2S models display significant skill in predicting the MJO propagation beyond two weeks, all the S2S models do not fully exploit the predictability associated to the MJO in the Northern Extratropics, particularly over Europeread more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Projected future changes in equatorial wave spectrum in CMIP6
TL;DR: In this article , the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) is considered in 13 state-of-the-art models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Journal ArticleDOI
Subseasonal forecasts of precipitation over maritime continent in boreal summer and the sources of predictability
TL;DR: In this article , the performance of both ECMWF and CMA models over the Maritime Continent in boreal summer was investigated for the S2S Project, and it was shown that the ECMWf model shows generally superior forecast performances than CMA, which is characterized by lower errors and higher correlations compared with the observations.
Journal ArticleDOI
Interpretable Deep Learning for Probabilistic MJO Prediction
TL;DR: In this paper , a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) is used to predict the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in the tropics, which is the dominant source of sub-seasonal variability in the tropical weather.
Journal ArticleDOI
The structure of strong Indian monsoon low‐pressure systems in subseasonal‐to‐seasonal prediction models
TL;DR: In this article , the structure of strong Indian monsoon low-pressure systems (LPSs) up to forecast lead times of 15 days in 11 models of the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project is analysed.
Posted ContentDOI
Prediction of Idai and 38 Other Tropical Cyclones and Storms in the Mozambique Channel
TL;DR: On average, two tropical storms or cyclones enter the Mozambique Channel between the African mainland and Madagascar each year as discussed by the authors, and their impact can be devastating, as the tropical cyclone Idai, which hit...
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dick Dee,S. Uppala,Adrian Simmons,Paul Berrisford,Paul Poli,Shinya Kobayashi,Ulf Andrae,Magdalena Balmaseda,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bauer,Peter Bechtold,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,C. Delsol,Rossana Dragani,Manuel Fuentes,Alan J. Geer,Leopold Haimberger,Sean Healy,Hans Hersbach,Elías Hólm,Lars Isaksen,P. Kallberg,Martin Köhler,Marco Matricardi,A. P. McNally,B. M. Monge-Sanz,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,B.-K. Park,Carole Peubey,P. de Rosnay,Christina Tavolato,Jean-Noël Thépaut,Frederic Vitart +35 more
TL;DR: ERA-Interim as discussed by the authors is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
Gilbert P. Compo,Gilbert P. Compo,Jeffrey S. Whitaker,Prashant D. Sardeshmukh,Prashant D. Sardeshmukh,N. Matsui,N. Matsui,Rob Allan,Xiaojun Yin,Byron E. Gleason,Russell S. Vose,Glenn Rutledge,P. Bessemoulin,Stefan Brönnimann,Stefan Brönnimann,Manola Brunet,Manola Brunet,R. Crouthamel,Andrea Grant,Pavel Ya. Groisman,Pavel Ya. Groisman,Philip Jones,Michael C. Kruk,Andries Kruger,Gareth J. Marshall,Maurizio Maugeri,H. Mok,Øyvind Nordli,Tom Ross,Ricardo M. Trigo,Xiaolan L. Wang,Scott D. Woodruff,Steven J. Worley +32 more
TL;DR: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset as discussed by the authors provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time-varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6-hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions.
Journal ArticleDOI
An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction
TL;DR: A seasonally independent index for monitoring the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is described in this paper, which is based on a pair of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the combined fields of near-equatorially averaged 850-hPa zonal wind, 200-hpa zonal winds, and satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data.
Journal ArticleDOI
Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation
TL;DR: Evidence is presented that the main climate intra-seasonal oscillation in the tropics—the Madden–Julian Oscillation—controls part of the distribution and sequences of the four daily weather regimes defined over the North Atlantic–European region in winter.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database
Frederic Vitart,Constantin Ardilouze,A. Bonet,Anca Brookshaw,M. Chen,C. Codorean,Michel Déqué,Laura Ferranti,E. Fucile,Manuel Fuentes,Harry H. Hendon,J. Hodgson,H.-S. Kang,Arun Kumar,Hai Lin,Guoqiang Liu,Xiangwen Liu,Piero Malguzzi,I. Mallas,M. Manoussakis,D. Mastrangelo,Craig MacLachlan,Peter McLean,A. Minami,R. Mladek,Tetsuo Nakazawa,S. Najm,Y. Nie,Michel Rixen,Andrew W. Robertson,Paolo Ruti,C. Sun,Yuhei Takaya,Mikhail A. Tolstykh,F. Venuti,Duane E. Waliser,Steven J. Woolnough,Tongwen Wu,D.-J. Won,H. Xiao,R. B. Zaripov,L. Zhang +41 more
TL;DR: The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project has been established by the World Weather Research Programme/World Climate Research Programme as discussed by the authors, which is the main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database containing sub-seasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3 weeks behind real time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modeled in part on the The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium-range forecasts.
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The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dick Dee,S. Uppala,Adrian Simmons,Paul Berrisford,Paul Poli,Shinya Kobayashi,Ulf Andrae,Magdalena Balmaseda,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bauer,Peter Bechtold,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,C. Delsol,Rossana Dragani,Manuel Fuentes,Alan J. Geer,Leopold Haimberger,Sean Healy,Hans Hersbach,Elías Hólm,Lars Isaksen,P. Kallberg,Martin Köhler,Marco Matricardi,A. P. McNally,B. M. Monge-Sanz,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,B.-K. Park,Carole Peubey,P. de Rosnay,Christina Tavolato,Jean-Noël Thépaut,Frederic Vitart +35 more