Journal ArticleDOI
Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction and teleconnections in the S2S database
TLDR
In this paper, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been diagnosed in the World Weather Research Program (WWRP)/WCRP Sub-seasonal-to-Seasonal prediction project (S2S) database using the Wheeler and Hendon index over the common hindcast period 1999-2010.Abstract:
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been diagnosed in the World Weather Research Program (WWRP)/World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Sub-seasonal-to-Seasonal prediction project (S2S) database using the Wheeler and Hendon index (Wheeler and Hendon 2004) over the common hindcast period 1999–2010 The S2S models display skill to predict the MJO between 2 and 4 weeks The majority of S2S models tend to produce a weaker MJO than in ERA Interim, with a phase speed decreasing with lead time
All the S2S models produce realistic patterns of MJO teleconnections at 500 hPa, with an increased probability of positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following an active MJO over the Indian ocean and of negative NAO following an active MJO over the west Pacific However, the amplitude of the MJO teleconnection patterns are significantly weaker than in ERA Interim over the Euro Atlantic sector and are often too strong over the western North Pacific Models with lower horizontal resolution tend to produce weaker teleconnections In the lower stratosphere, several S2S models produce teleconnections which are too strong compared to ERA Interim These results suggest that although the S2S models display significant skill in predicting the MJO propagation beyond two weeks, all the S2S models do not fully exploit the predictability associated to the MJO in the Northern Extratropics, particularly over Europeread more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Overview and Evaluation at Standard Resolution
Jean-Christophe Golaz,Peter M. Caldwell,Luke Van Roekel,Mark R. Petersen,Qi Tang,Jonathan Wolfe,G. W. Abeshu,Valentine G. Anantharaj,Xylar Asay-Davis,David C. Bader,Sterling Baldwin,Gautam Bisht,Peter A. Bogenschutz,Marcia L. Branstetter,Michael A. Brunke,Steven R. Brus,Susannah M. Burrows,Philip Cameron-Smith,Aaron S. Donahue,Michael Deakin,Michael Deakin,Richard C. Easter,Katherine J. Evans,Yan Feng,Mark Flanner,James G. Foucar,Jeremy Fyke,Brian M. Griffin,Cecile Hannay,Bryce E. Harrop,Mattthew J. Hoffman,Elizabeth Hunke,Robert Jacob,Douglas W. Jacobsen,Nicole Jeffery,Philip W. Jones,Noel Keen,Stephen A. Klein,Vincent E. Larson,L. Ruby Leung,Hongyi Li,Wuyin Lin,William H. Lipscomb,William H. Lipscomb,Po-Lun Ma,Salil Mahajan,Mathew Maltrud,Azamat Mametjanov,Julie L. McClean,Renata B. McCoy,Richard Neale,Stephen Price,Yun Qian,Philip J. Rasch,J. E. Jack Reeves Eyre,William J. Riley,Todd D. Ringler,Todd D. Ringler,Andrew Roberts,Erika Louise Roesler,Andrew G. Salinger,Zeshawn Shaheen,Xiaoying Shi,Balwinder Singh,Jinyun Tang,Mark A. Taylor,Peter E. Thornton,Adrian K. Turner,Milena Veneziani,Hui Wan,Hailong Wang,Shanlin Wang,Dean N. Williams,Phillip J. Wolfram,Patrick H. Worley,Shaocheng Xie,Yang Yang,Jin-Ho Yoon,Mark D. Zelinka,Charles S. Zender,Xubin Zeng,Chengzhu Zhang,Kai Zhang,Yuying Zhang,X. Zheng,Tian Zhou,Qing Zhu +86 more
TL;DR: Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project as mentioned in this paper is a project of the U.S. Department of Energy that aims to develop and validate the E3SM model.
Journal ArticleDOI
A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors review the growing evidence for a widespread inconsistency between the low strength of predictable signals in climate models and the relatively high level of agreement they exhibit with observed variability of the atmospheric circulation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Review of Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales
Cristiana Stan,David M. Straus,Jorgen S. Frederiksen,Hai Lin,Eric D. Maloney,Courtney Schumacher +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a review of the observed characteristics of intraseasonal tropical-extratropical interactions and their associated mechanisms, identifies the significant gaps in this understanding, and recommends new research endeavors to address the remaining challenges.
Journal ArticleDOI
Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction
Angeline G. Pendergrass,Gerald A. Meehl,Roger S. Pulwarty,Michael T. Hobbins,Michael T. Hobbins,Andrew Hoell,Amir AghaKouchak,Céline Bonfils,Ailie J. E. Gallant,Martin P. Hoerling,David Hoffmann,Laurna Kaatz,Flavio Lehner,D. Llewellyn,Philip W. Mote,Richard Neale,Jonathan T. Overpeck,Amanda Sheffield,Kerstin Stahl,Mark Svoboda,Matthew C. Wheeler,Andrew W. Wood,Connie A. Woodhouse +22 more
TL;DR: Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts as discussed by the authors, and they unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months).
Journal ArticleDOI
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment
Kathy Pegion,Ben P. Kirtman,Emily Becker,Dan C. Collins,E. Lajoie,Robert Burgman,Ray Bell,Timothy DelSole,Dughong Min,Yuejian Zhu,Wei Li,Eric Sinsky,Hong Guan,Jon Gottschalck,E. Joseph Metzger,Neil P Barton,Deepthi Achuthavarier,Jelena Marshak,Randal D. Koster,Hai Lin,Normand Gagnon,Michael Bell,Michael K. Tippett,Andrew W. Robertson,Shan Sun,Stanley G. Benjamin,Benjamin W. Green,Rainer Bleck,Hye-Mi Kim +28 more
TL;DR: The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) as discussed by the authors is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving sub-seasonal forecasts.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Empirical Extended-Range Prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Fiona Lo,Harry H. Hendon +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, an empirical model that predicts the evolution of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and 200-mb stream function is developed.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Canadian Wintertime Surface Air Temperature
Hai Lin,Gilbert Brunet +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used the homogenized Canadian historical daily surface air temperature (SAT) for 210 relatively evenly distributed stations across Canada, the lagged composites and probability of the above-and below-normal SAT in Canada for different phases of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in the winter season are analyzed.
Journal ArticleDOI
A Statistical Forecast Model of Tropical Intraseasonal Convective Anomalies
TL;DR: In this article, statistical forecast models of intraseasonal variations were developed for each lead time from 1 to 10 pentads and for winter and summer seasons separately, using a combination of the five most recent pentad values of the first five principal components of the combined EOF of (OLR, U200, U850) to predict the future values of a given PCK (k = 1, 5).
Journal ArticleDOI
Representation of MJO Variability in the NCEP Climate Forecast System
TL;DR: The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is arguably the most important intraseasonal mode of climate variability, given its significant modulation of global climate variations and attendant societal impacts as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Diagnosing the Origin of Extended-Range Forecast Errors
TL;DR: In this article, the authors studied the influence of lower boundary conditions, the tropical atmosphere, and the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere on extended-range forecast skill of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere troposphere during boreal winter.
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