Journal ArticleDOI
Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction and teleconnections in the S2S database
TLDR
In this paper, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been diagnosed in the World Weather Research Program (WWRP)/WCRP Sub-seasonal-to-Seasonal prediction project (S2S) database using the Wheeler and Hendon index over the common hindcast period 1999-2010.Abstract:
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been diagnosed in the World Weather Research Program (WWRP)/World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Sub-seasonal-to-Seasonal prediction project (S2S) database using the Wheeler and Hendon index (Wheeler and Hendon 2004) over the common hindcast period 1999–2010 The S2S models display skill to predict the MJO between 2 and 4 weeks The majority of S2S models tend to produce a weaker MJO than in ERA Interim, with a phase speed decreasing with lead time
All the S2S models produce realistic patterns of MJO teleconnections at 500 hPa, with an increased probability of positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following an active MJO over the Indian ocean and of negative NAO following an active MJO over the west Pacific However, the amplitude of the MJO teleconnection patterns are significantly weaker than in ERA Interim over the Euro Atlantic sector and are often too strong over the western North Pacific Models with lower horizontal resolution tend to produce weaker teleconnections In the lower stratosphere, several S2S models produce teleconnections which are too strong compared to ERA Interim These results suggest that although the S2S models display significant skill in predicting the MJO propagation beyond two weeks, all the S2S models do not fully exploit the predictability associated to the MJO in the Northern Extratropics, particularly over Europeread more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
Representation of Modes of Variability in Six U.S. Climate Models
Clara Orbe,Luke Van Roekel,Ángel F. Adames,Amin K. Dezfuli,John T. Fasullo,Peter J. Gleckler,Jiwoo Lee,Wei Li,Larissa Nazarenko,Larissa Nazarenko,Gavin A. Schmidt,Kenneth R. Sperber,Ming Zhao +12 more
TL;DR: The authors compare the performance of several modes of variability across six U.S. climatemodeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in recent models, including those participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) compared to previous versions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Easterly wave contributions to seasonal rainfall over the tropical Americas in observations and a regional climate model
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the contribution of Easterly waves to the seasonal precipitation over the tropical Americas using rain gauge stations, reanalysis data and a regional model ensemble during the 1980-2013 period.
Journal ArticleDOI
Deep learning for bias correction of MJO prediction
TL;DR: In this article, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is used as a primary source of global subseasonal (i.e., targeting three to four weeks) predictability.
Book ChapterDOI
The Madden-Julian Oscillation
TL;DR: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropical climate system and as such, a major source of predictability on sub-seasonal timescales as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
Advances in the subseasonal prediction of extreme events: Relevant case studies across the globe
Daniela I. V. Domeisen,Christopher J. White,Hilla Afargan-Gerstman,Ángel G. Muñoz,Matthew A. Janiga,Frederic Vitart,C. O. Wulf,Salome Antoine,Constantin Ardilouze,Lauriane Batté,Hannah Bloomfield,David Brayshaw,Suzana J. Camargo,Andrew Charlton-Perez,Dan C. Collins,Tim Cowan,Maria del Mar Chaves,Laura Ferranti,R. Gomez,Paula Gonzalez,Carmen González Romero,Johnna M. Infanti,Stelios Karozis,Hera Kim,Erik W. Kolstad,E. Lajoie,Llorenç Lledó,Linus Magnusson,Piero Malguzzi,Andrea Manrique-Suñén,D. Mastrangelo,Stefano Materia,Hanoi Medina,Ll. Palma,Luis Pineda,Athanasios Sfetsos,Seok-Woo Son,Albert Soret,Sarah Strazzo,Di Tian +39 more
TL;DR: In this paper , the authors provide an overview of subseasonal predictability for case studies of some of the most prominent extreme events across the globe using the ECMWF S2S prediction system: heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and tropical and extratropical cyclones.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Dick Dee,S. Uppala,Adrian Simmons,Paul Berrisford,Paul Poli,Shinya Kobayashi,Ulf Andrae,Magdalena Balmaseda,Gianpaolo Balsamo,Peter Bauer,Peter Bechtold,Anton Beljaars,L. van de Berg,Jean Bidlot,Niels Bormann,C. Delsol,Rossana Dragani,Manuel Fuentes,Alan J. Geer,Leopold Haimberger,Sean Healy,Hans Hersbach,Elías Hólm,Lars Isaksen,P. Kallberg,Martin Köhler,Marco Matricardi,A. P. McNally,B. M. Monge-Sanz,Jean-Jacques Morcrette,B.-K. Park,Carole Peubey,P. de Rosnay,Christina Tavolato,Jean-Noël Thépaut,Frederic Vitart +35 more
TL;DR: ERA-Interim as discussed by the authors is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
Gilbert P. Compo,Gilbert P. Compo,Jeffrey S. Whitaker,Prashant D. Sardeshmukh,Prashant D. Sardeshmukh,N. Matsui,N. Matsui,Rob Allan,Xiaojun Yin,Byron E. Gleason,Russell S. Vose,Glenn Rutledge,P. Bessemoulin,Stefan Brönnimann,Stefan Brönnimann,Manola Brunet,Manola Brunet,R. Crouthamel,Andrea Grant,Pavel Ya. Groisman,Pavel Ya. Groisman,Philip Jones,Michael C. Kruk,Andries Kruger,Gareth J. Marshall,Maurizio Maugeri,H. Mok,Øyvind Nordli,Tom Ross,Ricardo M. Trigo,Xiaolan L. Wang,Scott D. Woodruff,Steven J. Worley +32 more
TL;DR: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset as discussed by the authors provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time-varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6-hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions.
Journal ArticleDOI
An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index: Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction
TL;DR: A seasonally independent index for monitoring the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is described in this paper, which is based on a pair of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the combined fields of near-equatorially averaged 850-hPa zonal wind, 200-hpa zonal winds, and satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data.
Journal ArticleDOI
Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation
TL;DR: Evidence is presented that the main climate intra-seasonal oscillation in the tropics—the Madden–Julian Oscillation—controls part of the distribution and sequences of the four daily weather regimes defined over the North Atlantic–European region in winter.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database
Frederic Vitart,Constantin Ardilouze,A. Bonet,Anca Brookshaw,M. Chen,C. Codorean,Michel Déqué,Laura Ferranti,E. Fucile,Manuel Fuentes,Harry H. Hendon,J. Hodgson,H.-S. Kang,Arun Kumar,Hai Lin,Guoqiang Liu,Xiangwen Liu,Piero Malguzzi,I. Mallas,M. Manoussakis,D. Mastrangelo,Craig MacLachlan,Peter McLean,A. Minami,R. Mladek,Tetsuo Nakazawa,S. Najm,Y. Nie,Michel Rixen,Andrew W. Robertson,Paolo Ruti,C. Sun,Yuhei Takaya,Mikhail A. Tolstykh,F. Venuti,Duane E. Waliser,Steven J. Woolnough,Tongwen Wu,D.-J. Won,H. Xiao,R. B. Zaripov,L. Zhang +41 more
TL;DR: The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project has been established by the World Weather Research Programme/World Climate Research Programme as discussed by the authors, which is the main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database containing sub-seasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3 weeks behind real time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modeled in part on the The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium-range forecasts.
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