Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control.
Thomas J. Smith,Nicolas Maire,Amanda Ross,Melissa A. Penny,Nakul Chitnis,Allan Schapira,Alain Studer,B. Genton,Christian Lengeler,Fabrizio Tediosi,Don de Savigny,Marcel Tanner +11 more
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This project uses individual-based stochastic simulations of malaria epidemiology to predict the impacts of interventions on infection, morbidity, mortality, health services use and costs, and links to models of interventions and health systems.Abstract:
Planning of the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria leads to a need for models of malaria epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative prediction of likely epidemiological outcomes of a wide range of control strategies. Predictions of the effects of control often ignore medium- and long-term dynamics. The complexities of the Plasmodium life-cycle, and of within-host dynamics, limit the applicability of conventional deterministic malaria models. We use individual-based stochastic simulations of malaria epidemiology to predict the impacts of interventions on infection, morbidity, mortality, health services use and costs. Individual infections are simulated by stochastic series of parasite densities, and naturally acquired immunity acts by reducing densities. Morbidity and mortality risks, and infectiousness to vectors, depend on parasite densities. The simulated infections are nested within simulations of individuals in human populations, and linked to models of interventions and health systems. We use numerous field datasets to optimise parameter estimates. By using a volunteer computing system we obtain the enormous computational power required for model fitting, sensitivity analysis, and exploration of many different intervention strategies. The project thus provides a general platform for comparing, fitting, and evaluating different model structures, and for quantitative prediction of effects of different interventions and integrated control programmes.read more
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A long neglected world malaria map: Plasmodium vivax endemicity in 2010.
Peter W. Gething,Iqbal R. F. Elyazar,Catherine L. Moyes,David L. Smith,David L. Smith,Katherine E. Battle,Carlos A Guerra,Anand P. Patil,Andrew J. Tatem,Andrew J. Tatem,Rosalind E. Howes,Monica F. Myers,Dylan B. George,Peter Horby,Heiman F. L. Wertheim,Ric N. Price,Ric N. Price,Ivo Mueller,J. Kevin Baird,Simon I. Hay,Simon I. Hay +20 more
TL;DR: This first systematic effort to map the global endemicity of Plasmodium vivax is presented, intended to contribute to a much-needed paradigm shift towards geographically stratified and evidence-based planning for P. v Vivax control and elimination.
Journal ArticleDOI
Mathematical models of malaria - a review
TL;DR: The aim of this article is to develop a hierarchical structure of a range of deterministic models of different levels of complexity, and elaborate the evolution of modelling strategies to describe malaria incidence by including the critical features of host-vector-parasite interactions.
Journal ArticleDOI
The importance of mosquito behavioural adaptations to malaria control in Africa.
Michelle L. Gatton,Michelle L. Gatton,Nakul Chitnis,Nakul Chitnis,Thomas S. Churcher,Martin J. Donnelly,Azra C. Ghani,H. Charles J. Godfray,H. Charles J. Godfray,Fred Gould,Fred Gould,Ian M. Hastings,John M. Marshall,Hilary Ranson,Mark Rowland,Jeffrey Shaman,Jeffrey Shaman,Steve W. Lindsay,Steve W. Lindsay +18 more
TL;DR: Determining the public health impact of physiological and behavioral insecticide resistance is an urgent priority if the authors are to maintain the significant gains made in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality.
Journal ArticleDOI
Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study
Daniel J. Weiss,Tim C.D. Lucas,Michele Nguyen,Anita Nandi,Donal Bisanzio,Donal Bisanzio,Katherine E. Battle,Ewan Cameron,Katherine A. Twohig,Daniel A. Pfeffer,Jennifer Rozier,Harry S. Gibson,Puja C Rao,Daniel C Casey,Amelia Bertozzi-Villa,Emma L. Collins,Ursula Dalrymple,Naomi Gray,Joseph R Harris,Rosalind E. Howes,Sun Yun Kang,Suzanne H. Keddie,Daniel May,Susan F. Rumisha,Michael P Thorn,Ryan M Barber,Nancy Fullman,Chantal Huynh,Xie Rachel Kulikoff,Michael Kutz,Alan D. Lopez,Ali H. Mokdad,Mohsen Naghavi,Grant Nguyen,Katya Anne Shackelford,Theo Vos,Haidong Wang,David L. Smith,Stephen S Lim,Christopher J L Murray,Samir Bhatt,Simon I. Hay,Peter W. Gething +42 more
TL;DR: The first global, high-resolution map of P falciparum malaria mortality and the first global prevalence and incidence maps since 2010 are presented and illustrated the rapid decline in burden between 2005 and 2017.
Journal ArticleDOI
Immunogenicity of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine and implications for duration of vaccine efficacy: secondary analysis of data from a phase 3 randomised controlled trial
Michael T. White,Robert Verity,Jamie T. Griffin,Kwaku Poku Asante,Seth Owusu-Agyei,Brian Greenwood,Chris Drakeley,Samwel Gesase,John Lusingu,John Lusingu,Daniel Ansong,Samuel Adjei,Tsiri Agbenyega,Bernhards Ogutu,Lucas Otieno,Walter Otieno,Selidji T Agnandji,Bertrand Lell,Peter G. Kremsner,Irving F. Hoffman,Francis Martinson,Portia Kamthunzu,Halidou Tinto,Innocent Valea,Hermann Sorgho,Martina Oneko,Kephas Otieno,Mary J. Hamel,Nahya Salim,Ali Mtoro,Salim Abdulla,Pedro Aide,Jahit Sacarlal,John J. Aponte,Patricia Njuguna,Kevin Marsh,Kevin Marsh,Philip Bejon,Philip Bejon,Eleanor M. Riley,Azra C. Ghani +40 more
TL;DR: Anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres are a surrogate of protection for the magnitude and duration of R TS,S/AS01 efficacy, with or without a booster dose, providing a valuable surrogate of effectiveness for new RTS,S formulations in the age groups considered.
References
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Book
Adaptation in natural and artificial systems
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TL;DR: The number of malaria cases and deaths in sub-Saharan Africa has increased significantly in recent years, with the number of cases and number of deaths more than trebling in the past five years.
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